Cruise Results 2020 – forecast for 2021 – an improved tourist season
It is odd that we do not have official statistics for the period 2020, although we all know the negative results of the cruise industry despite the efforts made at various times for its restart in Greece.
We tried to remedy the omission, and gathered these data for 2020 and the approximate forecasts for 2021. We think we owe it to ourselves to mention these facts, no matter how frustrating they are.
This table – see same attached, includes data from 2017 to 2020 and forecasts for the current year.
Analysing this table we note that in 2017 – 2018 the results are quite compatible in their entirety, but with differences in the various destinations which mainly come from tourism competition in these sea regions, e.g. Ionian Islands, Dodecanese, Cyclades etc.
2019 was a year of significant improvements in almost all destinations and of course we ended up with a significant overall increase of about 15%, quite a respectable improvement, since for many years the annual increase was around 7%.
The remarkable growth of 2019 would continue in 2020 by about 10% according to industry forecasts before the pandemic outbreak and the ongoing disaster it brought to the industry.
In 2020, although the cruise trend had started in a very short time, the companies were forced to cancel their itineraries due to this devastating effect of the pandemic..
So we had an almost dead summer period on the cruises with the expected catastrophic results in the local communities, in the economy, but also in the industry in general.
Towards the end of the season, well-known companies attempted to restart, but unfortunately the itineraries were stopped again soon on the occasion of the 2nd Coronavirus outbreak.
So we reached the reported results of 2020 which as it turns out was a decrease compared to 2019 of 94% and of course with all ships being decommissioned (idle/laid-up) or travelling to various safe places at reduced speeds waiting for orders.
So with the start of vaccinations, but also the health measures that are applied, there are now hopes for the resumption of the sector, of course, always following the health protocols of ships, ports and general conditions of transport, etc.
So, hoping that the issue of the pandemic will be brought under control, the companies are planning the restart again, but we note that the announcements of companies with specific departures are postponed to future dates with the restart of some companies being in May / June, but also others plan for August or later.
So we have made forecasts for 2021 of course with fewer ships and passengers. The overall forecast for 2021 is to restore a satisfactory percentage of about 20% in addition to the results of 2020, thus reducing losses compared to 2019 from 94% to 74%.
Finally, summarising the data and the future forecasts of the industry: until the confidence of the passengers is gained, we mention once again that in order to reach the results of 2019 n, not only in Greece but globally, it may take at least 4 more years, pending a complete recovering in about 2025.
It is also worth noting that about 27 ships were withdrawn for scrap and an additional 18 ships were sold to other investors and it remains to be seen whether they will continue to operate in other destinations, or be used as floating hotels, etc.
There is also a fairly satisfactory trend for construction of luxurious small-sized ships, the expedition vessels. The new constructions of all ships amount to about 38 luxury cruisers with a capacity of 200 to 500 passengers with programming in special destinations including Greek islands.
It is also noteworthy the reduction or even zero construction of new ship orders in the well-known shipyards that build mega ships.
The vaccination programme worldwide should be accelerated at a very cautious pace, so that we can reach a satisfactory level of immunity as soon as possible and ensure safe transport programmes included in tourism and, of course, sea tourism.
The technical improvement planned for the cruisers (e.g. air conditioning) and also the hygiene measures to follow are in the correct direction in order to maintain safe environment on board and assist positively on the cruising restart.
