War and wrong sort of inflation bring back memories and lessons of the sixties
Friday 11 March 2022 – Vol.13 Ed.10.5
Bulletin: Return of guns and butter: war, inflation and central banks
By David Marsh in London
The world’s three most widely followed central banks have all got their inflation forecasts spectacularly wrong over the past 12 months. With the mood darkening after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, parallels with the 1960s and 1970s are growing ever more striking. As during the peak of the cold war, armed conflict is coinciding with the social and economic pressures of persistent inflation fuelled by soaring energy prices.
Read the full commentary on the website and the rest of the Bulletin here.
Bulletin: Wrong sort of inflation
By Neil Williams and Taylor Pearce in London
It was inevitable, even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, that Brexit shortages, the reopening of economies and soaring prices would spark inflation. An unleashing of pent up demand outstripping the pace of supply chain repair on top of base effects have taken inflation measures to decadal highs. But with wage inflation lagging and stagflationary forces building, what we’re left with might be the wrong sort of inflation – cost- rather than demand-led.
Read the full commentary on the website and the rest of the Bulletin here.
