For your reference, please see below the highlights of this week’s report:
Europe & Mediterranean:
– Russian attacks kill 10 across major Ukrainian cities, sustaining infrastructure and logistics risk. – Ukraine strikes two Russian refineries, increasing fuel and export-flow volatility. – Ukraine approves 40-day campaign against Russian targets, widening Black Sea escalation risk. – Armed Russian LNG carrier signals sharper confrontation risk in the Baltic Sea. – Russia considers diesel export ban as domestic fuel crisis intensifies. – European Union releases first tranche of major Ukraine support loan. – Russia threatens legal action over possible sale of oil from seized tanker. – Record heatwave disrupts European transport, power generation and river-linked logistics. – Gale-force winds across the Aegean raise ferry and coastal-operating risk. – Kazakhstan maintains reduced Karachaganak output after attack on Russian processing plant. – Russian western ports prepare record crude exports as refinery outages redirect flows.
Middle East & Indian Ocean Region:
– Confirmed pirate boarding of a bulk carrier northeast of Bosaso. – Cargo ship and tanker attacks trigger renewed United States–Iran strikes and halt evacuation framework. – Damaged South Korean bulk carrier prepares to leave Hormuz after repairs. – Ras Tanura crude loadings resume before fatal helicopter crash. – United States–Iran stand-down holds, but Doha diplomacy remains uncertain. – United States and Gulf states reject Hormuz tolls and unilateral transit controls. – Middle East oil and LNG loadings continue despite renewed ship attacks. – Lebanon security framework rejection threatens wider regional de-escalation. – United Arab Emirates records historic oil-export volumes after producer-group exit. – Fertiliser exports resume through Hormuz, but market relief remains limited. – Iraq presses for larger oil-production quota after war-driven export losses.
West Africa:
– Thirty-six students and three teachers missing after Borno school attack. – Gunmen kill at least 15 people in Zamfara farming community. – Burkina Faso severs diplomatic relations with France. – Senegal parliament passes contested constitutional reform amid protests. – Nigeria’s largest refinery imports United Arab Emirates crude for first time. – Guinea confirms July start for regional gold refinery after export restriction. – Ghana mandates state purchase of 30 percent of large-scale gold output. – International Monetary Fund releases 832.8 million United States dollars to Ivory Coast.
North Africa:
– Sudan escalation around El Obeid threatens civilians and strategic aid routes. – International Monetary Fund agreement could unlock approximately USD 1.6 billion for Egypt. – United States sanctions networks supporting opposing sides in Sudan’s civil war. – Algeria joins gas exporters seeking changes to European Union methane rules. – Casablanca port congestion eases but dry-bulk delays remain relevant. – Tunisia sentences prominent human rights defender to 25 years in prison.
Libya:
– Malware disguised as leaked Central Bank files creates secondary cyber risk. – Fuel-smuggling probe detains senior distributors and suspends 36 outlets. – Intelligence leadership dispute deepens institutional and financial-control uncertainty. – United Nations-backed talks reach consensus on presidential election law. – United States intensifies push to unify Libya’s military and political institutions. – Sabratha offshore compression project strengthens gas-production resilience. – Libya launches centralized electronic visa and foreign-entry platforms.
Asia:
– Armed perpetrators board bulk carrier in Singapore Strait and steal engine spares. – Taiwan tells vessels to reject Chinese boarding and inspection demands. – Chinese coast guard activity near Yonaguni adds new East China Sea pressure point. – North Korea tests tactical missiles and upgraded artillery near southern border. – Asian crude imports remain near decade lows amid Strait of Hormuz disruption. – Tropical storms disrupt transport and coastal operations across Japan and Taiwan. – India records fifth-driest June since 1901 as agricultural trade risks increase. – South Korea and Japan deepen defence and maritime search-and-rescue cooperation. – Myanmar’s president plans first visit to Association of Southeast Asian Nations member state.
Latin America:
01 Jul 2026 – Venezuela | Earthquake response expands as port and logistics disruption continues. 30 Jun 2026 – Mexico / United States / Canada | United States expected to withhold extension of North American trade pact. 29 Jun 2026 – Peru | Final presidential count confirms Fujimori lead as protests continue. 30 Jun 2026 – South America / Japan | Mercosur opens economic partnership negotiations with Japan.
