Economic & Market Outlook – Focus Notes (May 16, 2016)
Greece: Recession continues … real GDP growth -1.3% in the 1st quarter of 2016
On May 13th 2016 the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) published the flash estimates for the quarterly national accounts of the 1 st quarter 2016. According to the seasonally adjusted time series, the annual percentage change of real GDP was ‐1.3% from ‐0.8% in Q4 2015 and ‐1.7% in Q3 2015.
The respective figure in quarterly terms was ‐0.4% from +0.1% in Q4 2015.
This performance reflects:
i) prolonged uncertainty due to delays in the completion of the 1st review of the current economic adjustment programme,
ii) households’ expectations for a decrease in their disposable income mainly due to the planned overhaul of the income tax code and the social security pension reform (the relevant bill was approved by the Hellenic Parliament on May 8th) along with the anticipated increase of certain indirect taxes or introduction of new ones; and
iii) a decline in the positive contribution of net exports recorded in the previous quarters, especially in 2015 Q3. The breakdown of national accounts statistics pertaining to the first quarter of this year will not be known before the second publication of Q1 GDP (provisional data) on May 30th 2016.
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