Greece Macro Monitor (Friday, January 20, 2017)
2nd Programme Review – State of Play and Key Parameters
Introduction
This report aims at presenting the current state of affairs in the ongoing negotiations in the context of the 2nd programme review in order for the reader to gain a better understanding of the situation and the potential developments in the period ahead. In the following sections we analyze the key issues of the review as well as the different views of the parties involved, namely Greece, the European institutions and the IMF, based on official documents, official statements and press reports.
2nd programme review: state of play and key parameters
Negotiations for the completion of the 2nd programme review have been moving slowly in the past couple of weeks. The January 12th Euroworking Group (EWG) did not determine the timing of the return of the ECB/EC/IMF/ESM mission heads to Athens, on the grounds that more progress has to be made on several contentious issues, including labour market reform, the medium term fiscal strategy and energy market reform. Although a positive outcome at the January 26th Eurogroup cannot be entirely ruled out, the 2nd programme review is more likely to be concluded at the next scheduled Eurogroup on February 20. To a large extent, this would require an agreement between the institutions and the Greek side on the primary surplus targets beyond 2018 as well as on the stance of the IMF.
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GREECE MACRO Monitor January 20 2017
