John Faraclas
The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) …kept its “pace” thanks to the rising Panamaxes trying to balance the continuous Capers fall. Geopolitics as expected and warned you already, entered the point of no return. John Faraclas’ daily markets and geopolitics briefing:
The BDI clinched three points and now reads 1,087 points… still 1,160 points apart from the December 2013 closing of 2,247 points!! CAUTION… We have to stress this differential to ensure you get the message and what to expect… Things are getting tight all over! Wonder all these gurus and optimist analysts a few years ago what are saying for the current situation. it is almost ten years now since the collapse of the markets in 2008 – just after Posidonia; a prediction I have made in writing… needless to say my speech in Dec 2008!!!
The Capers’ BCI lost 11 points and now stands at 1,597 points…
The Panamaxes managed to gain 21 points with the BPI now reads 1,294 points…
Both the Supras and Handies “managed” to be on an “upwards” mode; the BSI was up three points at 840 and the BHSI was also up …just a couple of points at 517 points.
All in all a grounded Dry market and let’s see how things evolve when the Chinese return in front of their screens…
The Wets on a mini downfall; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 649 – no change and 628 minus two points respectively.
The WTI as these lines ae written at US$ 62.13; C A U T I O N!
The Geopolitical front is being covered today as we decided to give you a long break due to extended holidays in some places and other events taking place, not that we didn’t want to spoil your …appetite, but… Anyway, here we go:
The MIGRANTS issue becomes more and more a tentative issue that must be solved or even curbed but the inhumane politicians only touch one to maximum ten centum of the entire issue… What a shame. The latest figures are more than dramatic and the more the Wars (in plural) continue in the entire Middle East and its periphery, the more this issue will remain unsolved and the MIGRANTS will multiply…
The Syrian – Iraqi saga continues and the Turkish interference looks likely to completely rock the boat as Afrin might prove a decisive point. We have mentioned that this is a very perplexed situation and we are technically through WWIII !!! Tonight’s attack in eastern Ghouta creates more mess… All major powers are involved exploiting the locals in the region and we will not be surprised from the coming total chaos there, particularly if Israel gets more involved making an excuse to Iran and others to show their teeth. Above all, Turkey and all its leaders – Government and opposition, are pestering all nations bordering with Turkey – Greece, Cyprus the entire Balkans to name but a few… Expect a spill over and we guarantee this is gone to happen sooner or later! Those who witnessed yesterday’s demonstration in London’s West End with Kurds and Syrians condemning Turkey and its president Tayip Erdogan, got the message! Will Gas seal Peace and Security between Egypt and Israel following the recent deal between former adversaries? Let’s hope it does!
Greece continues to be in a mess; internally wrong policies are causing more harm for the 95 centum of the Greek population! The accumulation of debt shamefully continues! It is now more than ever before that Greece needs a team of Aristos to govern, streamline the economy, get rid NOW of the imposed debt and create a new impetus for all its citizens.
Cyprus feels the despicable pressure from Turkey in its EEZ exploration by ENI and time is running out. The Turkish-Cypriot head wants to share the oil; what a palaver is this! It is about time for the EU intervenes before it is too late! In the meantime Oil and Gas explorer Energean has unveiled its plans in raising US$ 500 mio in a float earlier on today. Millions of money will be spend on developing the Karish and Tanin gas field off the Israeli coast!
The entire Balkans are once again ready to explode. Edi Rama the Albanian prime minister stirs up the situation with the Kosovo issue… Expect the unthinkable as he wants to see one president for both entities…
The FYROM saga on the name continues and only the creator knows what’s next.
BREXIT continues to shake-up Europe to its foundations! There are voices suggesting that the government MUST publish the evidence on the impact of BREXIT. There are of course risks and benefits in BREXIT and let us see them! We maintain the view that the United Kingdom will be in the long run far safer than remaining in the EU!
Sex and other Scandals continue to create more than havoc all over Planet Ocean and particularly in Europe; Spain, Latvia, Italy and other countries face serious problems. The OXFAM scandal makes waves; still more to come!
In Africa all eyes are watching the Congo eruption to come… CAUTION. On the antipode the new South African leader Cyril Ramaphosa has a colossal task to save, above all, the economy; difficult times lay ahead… Be on guard.
At the other side of the Atlantic we all await to see the real end result involving Russians in the last presidential election / pre-election period too and when did actually the Russian factor entered the “arena” for its own intents and purposes. There are claims from other nations including the UK and France even in Germany on Russia’s interference… But who doesn’t interfere in this day and age to the …other side’s elections… In the meantime and following the despicable shooting in a Florida school, president Trump is supportive of improved gun checks!
In South America; ex Peruvian president Fujimori faces another trial for the killing of six farmers back in 1992!
The World is bankrupt and the accumulation of debt will trigger more wars. Poverty and Unemployment is the name of the game and the currency war, coupled with high oil prices might create the worse Armageddon you have ever imagined. Another important issue is that of the environment and its challenges facing us which are being increased in scale and impact. It is more than important to involve local communities in conservation to ensure everyone can appreciate the value of our natural systems. Add the issue of Religious Wars and see the business environment we live in; what’s next it will be devastating for all, and this greatly affects already the entire shipping industry. The only glimpse of hope is to go now and order ships that the prices are down, but is is also time to end up increased regulation leading to new equipment. Enough!!! Shipyards MUST be punished with the low prices prevailing but MUST also produce/ built and deliver First Class ships. All shipyards MUST be monitored, otherwise the scams will continue!
A view of the Ball Room (picture credits Irene K. Notias)
On another tone, IBIA’s (International Bunker Industry Association) 25th Annual Dinner took place tonight at a full house in London’s Park Lane Grosvenor House Hotel. One of the most prestigious annual dinners it brings together all of the shipping industry’s stakeholders from all over the world; an event with possibly the most exciting networking given the continuous volatility of the markets and the uncertainty in bunker prices.
Prior to the event, IBIA’s board elections took place and the new chairman taking over from Robin Meech on the 1st of April is Intertek Space’s Michael Green. We will revert with a full account and pictures.
London, China Town – picture credits: Anny Zade
Have a nice evening but be on guard for any incident emanating from Pirates and Terrorists wherever you are on Planet Ocean; things are sour!
Happy Chinese New Year – the Year of the Dog! We witnessed a great and peaceful parade!
Uploaded 15:55 GMT
First Update: 23:05 GMT
Second Update: 23:55 GMT
