Shipping Markets catastrophic fall…amidst geopolitical chaos…

John Faraclas

Shipping Markets catastrophic fall… amidst geopolitical chaos… will bring in total mess

Our forty-fifth weekly recapitulation of the shipping markets, their respective main indices and world geopolitics affecting same in 2015 and beyond, tonight Friday the 6^th of November 2015, with John Faraclas of AllAboutShipping in London.

• The BDI, the Baltic Dry Index, closed down nine points since yesterday Thursday the 5th of November at 631 points which is 90 points down since last week’s 721 points, re-confirming, unfortunately our predictions!. Now these 631 points is far below the December 2013 closing of 2, 274 points, a difference of 1, 643 points! Be on guard…
• The BCI was up but just one point at 1, 003, which  is 226 points down is since last week’s 1, 229; what a dive given that the previous one was 232 points down last week, a total of 458 points in two weeks time!
• The BPI was 15 points down at 603 points which is 72 points down since last week when it stood at 675 points…
• The BSI was 13 points down since yesterday at 571 points which is 58 points down since last week’s 629  points, and,
• The BHSI was also down, but just five points, at 323 which are 26 points down since last week’s 349 points. –The markets dried out!
• The wets now and the last published indices: Dirties and its BDTI index remained the same since the last published one, which is 72 points up since last week’s 750 points.-
• The Cleans and its respective BCTI was up four points at 461 points which is minus three points down since last week’s 464 points.-
• The Container Trade for a seventh month in a row shows further signs of droppings…

On the Ships Sale and Purchase front, things are rolling favourably to those with cash recources, able to obtain newbuildings – even series of 5 to 10 ships at very good prices, specs and extras! Same applies price-wise on secondhand five year old ones after being… rectified following their first specials… Technology and fuels (bunkers modus) also dictate the major changes and  a new era in propulsion given the advent of LNG! Having said that we eagerly wait to see the progress in major ports around the world to be ready with their LNG bunkering terminals! Good business for all and the Environment!

The price of oil variations is of interest but still on the low side despite some gains; US$ 45, but dropping sounds still fine…

The Geopolitics front continues in an expanding mess:

• The Migrants issue as we said last week has rally began… The politicians continue to make it far worse. Here is an example that Europe is in a total mess. Can America give a helping hand? A big SHAME to all politicians. They must all seat at the dock for crimes against humanity, particularly with the way they handle the Turkish factor. All immigrants must be checked and verified in Turkey and not in Greece. Same applies in Libya. Equally Italy must press for this!  We reiterate the fact that Turkey must get its act together and given the results of the elections last weekend with Davutoglou gaining an overwhelming, but dangerous majority, the Turks must comply in all aspects with international law and European thinking – if they ever wish to enter the EU! Enough from the Turkish blackmail!
• Iran must conform to reality and abandon silly sabotage of American (USA) imported goods, as well as other rhetoric which can cause detrimental effects in the region. Iran must make strides for peace in the region and not burn flags!
• The Palestinian issue as said last week must be solved as we smell more trouble in the region…
• In Greece things are getting worse given the complexity of some ministers way of thinking. The taxation anathema imposed by the lenders will certainly become the graveyard of this government as well as many of Europe’s leaders…Do read last week’s para on Greece and see what you understand… The Minister of Shipping is in China now and let’s hope he brings back an honourable deal. Conferences etc are all fine, the end result counts. On top of this we are passing him the message: HANDS  OFF the SPF* (NAT) and organise the pensioners without any silly delay to receive what they have too. He must also explain this to his Prime Minister and the European lenders; we can unsolicited assist him on these issues. Hope he gets the message or else one day… Again do please read the comment of last week on the other issues… he has to confront…
• We are urging the Europeans to properly tackle the Migrants issue. Are they ready to receive five more millions within the next six months? Things are getting worse. Things are getting off-hand!
• The Ukrainian saga continues particularly as we have a bit of a silence…
• Germany, the most financially powerful nation in Europe saw its industrial  production drop in September… Caution!
• The Russian plane’s “explosion” killing all 224 on board above Sinai on the eve of World Travel Market in London, will definitely trigger more mess. Shame to all perpetrators of this crime!
• China: Difficult days for …Tigers….see our last week’s commentary… Meantime Chinese leader Xi met with his Vietnamese counterpart Truong Tan Sang in Hanoi to ease the tension in the region pledging good ties and maritime peace. We have reported live last year from that special spot… All nations in the region have expressed concern and the US must find the way to avoid yet another clash in the region. Maritime interests could be at stake…
• In neighbouring India, Mr. Modi feels unease since being elected with NGO’s and Charitable Organisations; Greenpeace in India will have to fight back for its licence is being revoked…
• In Australia and in particular off Bondi Beach, the world (through satellite) witnessed a unique “Tsunami” storm cloud rolling accross Sydney – spectacular but dangerous too… Mother Nature…
• In Brazil a bursting dam causes incalculable mess and many are feared dead. This happened in south-eastern Minas Gerais; a dam holding back waste water from an iron ore mine…
• The Islamic State following Davutoglou’s win and Erdogan trying to avoid side-lines, will do everything possible in the region. Be on guard!
• In Syria there must be  just solution and all major powers opposing ISIS must ensure to cooperate with those already involved and smash ISIS as well as ISIS in Iraq and wherever ISIS operates from. Then, when ISIS is smashed, they can begin the solution there. In the meantime they can stop ammunition and military equipment reaching ISIS fighters hands; they very well know who procures same. Enough with hypocrits!
• In Africa now: Nasty things happening in Burundi; hope we do not live the Rwanda 90’s despicable situation…
• Remembrance events over this weekend and Sunday’s service at the Cenotaph, for honouring all those killed in World Wars  One and Two, as well as in  later conflicts; time to pause, reflect and act accordingly with Peace Diplomacy, as thse last 50 years things are getting worse and worse…
• We remind you last week’s: “The world enters a recession but the politicians and their cronies ignore on purpose. The credit issue and mess from the credit cards spending have spiralled world-wide with incalculable repercussions!” So what next!
• Capital Link’s CSR event on the 3^rd of November was unique…
• …the Athens Navigator’s 15^th event yesterday at the Onassis Cultural Centre went well too..
• IMIF’s 40^th Anniversary and Jim Davis’ 30 years at the helm of the world’s most important group/forum, was the talk of the Square Mile and will be for the years to come!
• The Poseidon Med Stakeholders Conference is due on Thursday 19 November 2015 at Zappeion. Not to be missed!
• The 40th anniversary of Intermodal Europe takes place in Hamburg Messe on the 17-19 November; don’t miss it!
• On the Tourist front, there was plentiful to see at the World Travel Market which opened last Monday in London’s Excel and lasted until yesterday, with Greece’s Minister of Tourism Elena Kountoura doing her best! There are extensive reports and analysis in other pages of AllAboutShipping…
• His All Holiness Patriarch Vartholomeos I visited the United Kingdom and officiated in a mass at the St. Sophia Cathedral in London’s Bayswater…
• Finally, we continue to invite the world visiting Greece and its Islands even this time of the year; that will counter as a plus to the troubles Greece and its people are still going through. We repeat that Greece is for all seasons! We will also continue to repeat the fact that the Turkish Government by allowing the traffickers to move the migrants to the Greek Islands not only spoils Greece’s tourism but will eventually create the worst explosion in the East Med… Let’s see what Europe does to Turkey and relax their leaders so we all avoid the big clash! Bluffing with the Turks as Germany and France as well as other countries in Europe and the USA do, will only make things worse. We cannot accept any further Turkish blackmail!

Now try Folegandros in the Cyclades and Zakynthos – Zante in the Ionian Sea: both very exciting places still to be, given the favourable warm weather… Otherwise, do try Ecuador; not just for the bananas, not for the coffee, but for the great environment it offers and it’s Galapagos Islands nearby…

*SPF (Seaman’s Pension Fund)

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