With a 53 plus points closed the BDI earlier this afternoon at 1060 thanks to the Capers, which gained 175 points toping to 2021! All other sectors where pretty much the same with Panamaxes and their respective BPI at 928, down 5, the BSI at 910 up one, and the BHSI at 518 minus 2. The wets too had a steady BDTI at 631 points, but the cleans where down 5 at 565, another melodrama there…
It is too early to think of any improvement in the market and this will only come when we see a 20 percent reduction in the existing tonnage, a 40 percent reduction in the newbuildings and a 10 centum increase of the world’s GDP. In the same way we use sanctions to express our dismay for pariah nations, in the same way there should be sanctions and a team of international monitors to make sure these work. There should be schemes of scrap and built so enable the market sustainability.
If the above happens, even gradually, in 2020 the current crisis will be over, as well as that of the credit crunch, which, coupled with austerity, stops short further economic development and growth and the 8 (eight) billion people on the globe will be able to enjoy a better world as 8 (eight) billion tons of cargoes will make the difference and shipping rates will be great! Until then hold your steam; nothing spectacular will happen.
The international public suffers as unemployment reaches unprecedented levels, particularly in Europe, and given the Chinese factor in the importing goods arena, things look bleak.
The geopolitical and energy jargon looks blur too and it seems we are going to see soon the expected social upturn with incalculable repercussions; its not if, but when this will happen.
The so called Arab spring, is nothing else but a spring, the Syrian adventure now beginning to enfold and the other hot spots Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Somalia, to name but a few, still worsening. New areas of conflict surface and caution and restrain is the best remedy. Think if China too gets in a mess, just think! These and other factors greatly affect the shipping markets; watch this space!