South East Europe bi-Monthly (Jan-Feb 2014)

Platon Monokroussos

CESEE markets under pressure on worries about potential impact of Fed QE tapering, heightened geopolitical tensions in the broader region

CESEE MARKETS

• CESEE stock markets under pressure on worries over Fed QE tapering, heightened geopolitical tensions in the broader region
• Regional currencies weaken,  with impact more pronounced on the assets of economies with high external financing requirements
• Snap Presidential elections called in Ukraine following months in turmoil
• Local rate markets remain vulnerable amid persisting depreciating pressures on regional currencies.

COUNTRY FOCUS

• Serbia: High popular support drives Progressives to call early elections, scheduled for March 16th

Following months of speculation, the main political party in the ruling coalition, the Serbian Progressive Party, called snap elections earlier this year.

• Romania: Economy already undergone significant adjustments in external and fiscal imbalances

2013 growth recovery driven by strong export performance and bumper harvest, but small deceleration expected this year on adverse base effects.

• Bulgaria: Rebalancing of Bulgarian economy continues, driven by improving export performance

Economic activity to pick up modestly in 2014, while inflation pressures likely to remain subdued this year and the next on weak domestic demand dynamics.