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Upwards indices doesn’t constitute a buoyant market…

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John Faraclas

John Faraclas

The latest dry market improvement come as the… manna-from-heaven to all, but still is early days to celebrate the 1, 147 points of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), as this is 1, 100 points down from December 2013’s closing at 2, 247 points, a minus 48.9 percent and far behind the highest level so far, being that of 4, 843 points on the 28 November 2009 after the 2008 collapse (at 662) and the absolute low of 647 of 3 February 2012!  So, hold your breath…

This is our thirty-third overview of the shipping markets and geopolitics, today Friday the 29th of August 2014, the www.allaboutshipping.co.uk news with John Faraclas in Athens:

  • The BDI closed up 28 points since yesterday Thursday the 28th of August at 1, 147 points entering the third week above the 1, 000 point mark, despite some hiccups earlier in the week… This is also 59 points up since last Friday’s closing at 1, 088 points. Again the capers and the panamaxes did i, t but the other two dry indices were also on a plus mood.
  • The BCI closed up 76 points at 2, 627 points,  which also 92 points up since last week’s 2, 535 points. Smoothie mood…
  • The BPI was up 29 point at 871 which is 59 points up since last week’s 812 points. Again nothing spectacular…
  • The BSI was up at 970 points, i.e. seven points up since yesterday and 43 points since last week’s 937 points…
  • The BHSI was up five points since yesterday at 442 points,  which is 29 points up since last week’s 413 points.

So overall, a plus dry market, but still we repeat it is early days… Still on caution. We must exercise considerable control of feelings and expectations as things are not that rosy…

The wets on the other hand where both on a dropping …mood with the BDTI down 13 points to 722 points but up 21 points from last week’s at 701 points…whilst the cleans where down one point to 547 which is the same level since last week…. Caution here too!

The World Stage now:

  • Ukraine: Despite meetings and shaking hands, at the end of the day it will become as a surprise to many the outcome, but not for us. Somebody is looking for trouble without a proper RWAD… without a full support and the result will really hurt… Forget the convoys and all that jazz… The deaths will bring more deaths and wonder who will rescue not just Ukraine but Europe too.  Remind you that “in 1900 Europe dominated the world. This is not just a figure of speech, nor is it simply a way of saying that Europeans exercised direct rule, through Europe did, in fact, exercise direct rule over a very large part of the world”1 History repeats itself of who wanted the destruction of Europe. I am sure you dead well know what happened; I am sure you know a bit of history…
  • The Middle East and its periphery: The total mess continues and it will make it even worse.
  • Libya: Who is going to control it?
  • Europe as we said above is in a total mess in all fronts; internal and external… Greece is the country to watch!!!!
  • The Far East will bring some “tsunamis” , but make sure your are far away
  • In Africa the Ebola deadly virus continues to makes waves… Europe continues to be in a messy and unpredictable situation too…
  • Many countries, particularly in Europe, are on a high alert expecting a terrorist attack given the ISIS behaviour… We are very much concerned with all this unhappy situation in the world affairs and we wish our shipping people, seafarers et al are safe. Mind me we constantly travel in the maritime world and we are very vulnerable, but also, let it be known, we can strike back, as and when we feel it!!!!! We can manage to get rid of all these bastards, whoever they are and parade them in public if they dare disrupt our industry. Humiliation is the name of the game; only though humiliation all these perpetrators, repeat all these. This is the message we get from the people who care for the shipping industry.

On another tone now,

  • The ninth tip for your summer vacation: Namibia, a very special place, a very unique coastline too. Have fun!

Enjoy the weekend wherever you are and don’t be a fool to think that after 823 years (in 2837)  we will again have 5 Fridays, 5 Saturdays and 5 Sundays. Learn the real thing yourself and trust no one on these issues…. In fact next May, May 2015 is yet another month which has five F’s, S’s and S’s… Equally beware of the brokers and analysts who will insist the markets are coming up…

1From the Prologue of the book “The Mighty Continent”, page 11, para one.-

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