John Faraclas
World turmoil and the Dry markets still under the 1, 000 points; the wets though are doing “better”…
In this fortieth weekly recapitulation of the markets and world geopolitics affecting same, tonight Friday the 17th of October 2014 John Faraclas and AllAboutShipping in London, present you their view and what to expect…
We reiterate our view that the world is entering its worse so far period, conversely the markets will remain down and predictably …unpredictable. Whether dry or wet we are in a very peculiar, but expected by us situation. Whether eco ships or not, whether more cargoes available, even if say tomorrow we hear of ten billion tonnes of cargo traded per annum (up 800, 000, 000 tonnes from the 9, 2 billion tonnes of cargo recorded for 2013), nothing will change to the levels the speculators have in mind and the gurus / analysts expect(ed).
This 944 points of the BDI’s closing earlier this afternoon, is 14 points plus since yesterday Thursday the 16th of October, but 19 points down since last week’s 963 points, a 1, 303 points fall from December 2013 closing of 2, 247 points – that’s a 58 plus percent fall! We are living in interesting market times! We are proud that our prediction on the markets still stands firm despite the many eyebrows raised last January, not to mention long before… Eat your heart out (you know for whom this goes…).
The BCI closed up 47 points since yesterday at 1, 362 which is 182 points down since last week’s 1, 544 points…
The BPI was up 26 points at 966 points since yesterday, which is 101 points up since last week’s 865 points…
The BSI was down ten points at 923, which is 47 points down since last week’s 970 points; a size to watch!
The BHSI was down two points at 501 and a further 15 points down since last week’s 516 points..
So once again, for a third week in row, an overall downward dry market.-
The wets on the other hand did …slightly better: the dirty and its respective index, the BDTI, closed up four points at 698 which is also 24 points up since last week’s 674 points and the cleans with the respective BCTI closed up nine points at 557, which on the other hand is down 19 points since last week’s 575 points.
On the World Stage now:
The Ebola saga first – like all health issues: things are getting worse. The major powers are sending specialist hospital ships in Africa, and elsewhere some cases spread fears with shipping also being slightly affected. Once again we repeat: Let’s do the utmost to contain Ebola before it is too late; and never ever to hyde things – Ebola was looming in the background, yet few had the guts to speak up (this is what we hear…
Ukraine: Meeting after meeting and Byzantine politics with the politicians in Europe – like Mrs. Merkel, “showing” a tough stand against Mr. Putin, but reality is totally different. Let’s be serious.
The Middle East and its periphery might produce more tremors! Watch it! The Islamic State is a very worrying issue and the politicians are totally ignorant and disable to tackle same. Let the Generals move in and smash them! Yes, smash them!
In some European capitals the arrest of suspects, terrorists et al, is a great achievement, but is there enough personnel to counter to the thousand of suspects who are sworn enemies of the west? What if…
Libya: Waiting to see what else is there to come.
Europe: A Yellowstone ready to burst! The politicians proved useless to contain the financial catastrophe and it could get even worse… Unemployment still stands high; austerity damages any prospect of further development. A constitutional solution, as we have said, is the only way out!
The German economy should be monitored more than that of Greece or Cyprus or the Portuguese… Other nations might burst too…
Mentioning Greece, wonder how Mrs. Amal Clooney will do the trick and the Parthenon Marbles return to where they belong, from where they were savagely cut-off, an act of despicable murder which goes on thanks to the politicians. Any excuse is for the moron society only… I guess the main prerequisite was the museum; the Acropolis Museum is a reality, time please!
In the Far East with the Hong Kong saga still on, we wonder what else is to happen. Can the Beijing team find a solution before it is too late?
Remind you the three events of Capital Link; one in New York on 23 October under “Dissect ETF’s Forum”, then 4th Annual Shipping & Offshore CSR forum in London on the 4th of November, the New York event on the 1st of December on the 16th Annual Greek Investors Forum. Book early to avoid disappointment…
Don’t miss Intermodal Europe 2014 on the 11-13 November in Rotterdam Ahoy; a promising as always event!
Cadwallader’s event by the London Shipping Law Centre is on the 25th of November and it looks its fully booked; try to test your luck and participate in this unique biennial event.
On another tone now…the seventeenth tip for the extended summer vacation is… Scotland, the highlands for a change; an oxymoron but adventurous place to be this time of the year!
Still on our mind the excellent WISTA International AGM and Conference in Cyprus last week and hope Turkey next year stages an excellent event too. Then (in 2016) the USA ladies have their .say in Miami… We will revert with the many stories from this unique event in Limassol soon!
Enjoy the weekend and for us in the UK, lets be careful with the changing weather..
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