John Faraclas
A wrecked dry Market with the BDI at 530 points is practically the best to enter shipping and conquer the industry!
Our seventh weekly recapitulation of the markets, their respective main indices and world geopolitics affecting same in 2015, tonight Friday the 13th of February, with John Faraclas of AllAboutShipping in London.
We have continued to bring you extra market news with the BDI and geopolitics, more or less all through last week… Irrespective if today is coincidentally Friday 13th , the markets, both dry and wet continued an overall dive… Superstition is one thing, reality yet another!
Many have branded the shipping industry as an industry of cycles, a cyclical business; I have termed, coined this if you like, as the “oval”, as predictions based on cycles are almost sure to be erroneous because very few phenomena are governed by regular periodical cycles, particularly in shipping!
- The BDI closed down 10 points since yesterday Thursday the 12 February 2015 at 530 points earlier this afternoon, which is 29 points down since last week’s 559 points; the lowest ever since the 6th of August 1986!!!!
- The BCI closed down 22 points at 630 points, which is 59 points down since last week’s 689 points!
- The BPI was up just 10 points at 499 points which is nine points down since last week’s 508 points. It was the only size maintaining an “upwards” trend…
- The BSI was down 10 points at 486 points which is 44 points down since last week’s 530 points.
- The BHSI was down five points at 286 points, which is 15 points down since last week’s 301 points…
So, except the Panamaxes all other indices where on decline and the general index speaks itself on the reality. Although we suggest, and we continue to suggest caution, this is the best time to buy extra well “preserved” second hand tonnage with projected futurability as well as to order newbuildings; time to squeeze the shipyards, eh!
- On the wets now, the latest published BDTI was down 3 points at 867, which is 55 points down since last Friday’s 922 points. The Cleans and the respective BCTI though was also down eight points at 582, which is 61 points down since last Friday’s 643 points… Strange market here too.
- As said in previous reporting this is the best time to enter shipping!!! Don’t miss The Chance!
- The price of Brent for the first time in 2015 is at the region US$ 60 plus. Whether oversupply persists, it remains to be seen. From US$115 in July 2014 down to region US$ 47 makes it a very questionable commodity, yet again. From the moral point of view, you dead well know, that this is a scam against the wealth of many nations, including the producers/exporters. Work out your figures and see what really we gain at the end of the day!
- The Liner trade continues to struggle!
- Some consolidation is on the horizon, but for the wrong reasons altogether in the tramp trades especially on the Chartering front…
On the Geopolitical front:
- Too many immigrants were drowned off Italy, over 300 this week and it is time a proper guarding of Europe’s frontiers from intrusions and gangs smuggling humans in inhumane conditions with despicable deals… The Med is a very vulnerable place, yes, but with today’s means it can be guarded.
- The former master of Costa Concordia got 16 years imprisonment in a very strange verdict; a sentence which will not start until the appeals process is completed; this will take time… On the other hand no verdict will ever cover the human cost…
- Ukraine: Despite the ceasefire agreed, I am sorry to say that the situ will go far worse…
- In Nigeria, the Boko Haram militants attacked Chad…
- ISIS creates more problems and Syrian President appearing on TV maintains he will be a part of the solution in the region, no matter what others thing… very delicate issues… Stubbornness sometimes creates worse results. Egypt in the light of ISIS kidnapping 21 Coptic Christians in Libya thinks of an airlift; how this can happen in a lawless country, it remains to be seen – unless President Sisi does the military trick! In any event we await to see if there is a political will of the superpower to intervene and smash ISIS altogether. It is within the capabilities of the US and their allies to do so, it is about time.
- In the South African parliament chaos had its best… Time to reflect and correct! No further excuses!
- In the US president Barak Obama is about to host a cyber security summit – about time as our lives is at risk following not just the intrusions, but much more.
- Some Banking Scandals will open the Pandora Box of revelations; I like it!
- The HESGB 20th Anniversary event in London’s Hilton on Park Lane will be for ever remembered!
- The Taliban attacks in in the Pakistani city of Peshawar with guns and grenades, killing at least 20 should not be underestimated.
- China is trying to get its act together on the economic and shipping front… and
- Europe too, with too many deliberations over Greece. Its is the powerful (financially) Europeans states – Germany in particular, who have created this mess and put Greece and its people under duress to accept despicable terms. The avalanche of other nations n the Eurozone and Europe will follow if we don’t see a just agreement, a just outcome…
- Valentines tomorrow is expected worldwide as a glimpse of hope to capitulate on the power of love.
Have a nice weekend and log on herebelow to watch the live reporting:
