Dr. Platon Monokroussos, Chief Market Economist, Deputy General Manager, Eurobank Ergasias S.A
This note presents a preliminary estimate of Greek real GDP for the first quarter of this year, based on a range of data released up to April 6, 2015. Our Nowcasting model produces high frequency, real-time estimates of Greece’s gross domestic product by applying an econometric methodology that can properly handle data reporting lags, revisions and other important aspects characterizing the daily flow of macroeconomic information. Our mid-range estimate of real output growth in Q1 2015 is -0.4% to -0.6% on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, which translates into a nearly flat year-on-year rate. This compares with a realization of -0.38% QoQ s.a. / +1.31% YoY in the fourth quarter of last year. Due to reporting lags, the flow of macro data pertaining to Q1 2015 will continue in the following couple of months and thus, our Q1 GDP estimate should be considered as strictly preliminary and subject to revisions.
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GREECE MACRO FOCUS April 7 2015
