Dr. Platon Monokroussos, Chief Market Economist, Deputy General Manager, Eurobank Ergasias S.A
Eurobank Research – Global Focus Note
Greek Q4 GDP flash report points to full-year real output contraction of 0.7%; data slightly worse than expected
According to the national account statistics for Q4 2015 (flash estimate), Greece’s real gross domestic product in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms came in at -0.6% QoQ / -1.9 % YoY (Figure 1). This is slightly worse than our earlier forecast for a seasonally adjusted real output decline in the fourth quarter between -0.8% YoY and -1.5% YoY1 and compares with a (revised) reading of -1.4% QoQ/ -1.9% YoY in Q3. In nominal terms, GDP growth in Q4 came in -2.0 % YoY, with the implicit GDP deflator inflation recording broadly flat growth following 12 negative consecutive quarters. This broadly reflects the across-the-board hikes in VAT rates implemented in early August. Taking into account a number of revisions made to the prior quarters, the Q4 flash estimate points to a 2015 full-year real GDP contraction of -0.7%, which falls within the range of more recent official forecasts (EC Winter 2015 Forecasts: -1.4% & Greece’s 2016 Budget: 0.0%).
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GLOBAL FOCUS NOTE_FEBRUARY12_Greek Q4 GDP
