Greece Macro Monitor (21 June, 2016)
Summary in English
The study presented herein has been motivated by the recent publications of the IMF’s updated DSA for Greece (May 2016), the European Commission’s first review compliance report (June 2016) as well as the agreement on the debt relief framework reached at the Eurogroup of May 24, 2016. It provides a detailed analysis of Greece’s future borrowing needs and gross public debt ratio based on the macroeconomic assumptions and the OSI modalities presented in the aforementioned publications. Furthermore, it compares these estimates with the estimates derived from a number of alternative scenarios, assuming different sets of macroeconomic conditions and fiscal policy targets. We believe that the analysis provides a useful framework for evaluating alternative strategies to make Greek public debt sustainable under the new definition of sustainability.
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