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BDI in free-fall; Geopolitics too

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John Faraclas

John Faraclas

At 862 points the BDI sends alarming bells all over Planet Ocean and this, coupled with Geopolitical commercial chaos, following the USA’s presidential elections, might lead to a point of no return for many economies; John Faraclas daily recap:

The BDI lost another 24 points and now stands at 862 points, thanks to nearly another 100 points down of the ever volatile Capers. No matter what the “specialists” say in the field and wishful thinking one thing is for sure: we are in an “enter the dragon” ere – you dead well know how to interpret this…

The Capers’ BCI 2014 lost 97 points and now stand at 1,369 points – below the 1,400 point mark.

The Panamaxes’ BPI “survived” with eight points plus, now reading 972…

The Supras’ BSI down six at 702 and the Handies’ BHSI lost four and now reads 428.

All in all a falling dry market and wonder who can dictate the remedy to save the ship finance lenders – banks, funds, private equity supremos. Things are very bad, simply high and dry…

The Wets to on a downfall; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) also down at 987 – minus eight and 619 – minus five respectively.

The WTI close to US$ 52,70 – reiterate the view it must be below the US$ 50 mark – the poor will “counter”, remember this…

We reiterate the view that despite all these market’s mess and uncertainty, this is the best ever buyers’ market; so go and acquire new tonnage – preferably newbuildings!

The Geopolitical front continues to be, at best dodgy…

The MIGRANTS, including now the illegal ones in the American Continent with respect president Trump’s insistence in building a wall with Mexico, sends shocking waves, add what already happens elsewhere and which you read on a daily basis here in this very report and see for yourselves what is yet to come.

The Syrian and Iraqi double saga continues and ISIS is still there, unfortunately. We will all celebrate asap we see this terrorists AND their backers ridiculed in public; zero tolerance, particularly to ISIS’s backers! One also wonders: what is Putin’s end game in the region?

The BREXIT will indeed turn the world upside down and given that, it remains to be seen from the resurgence of that special Transatlantic relationship with the USA, expect major upheavals. It will be though for the benefit of the USA, UK and Japan! Besides expect new coalitions in the Brexit debate!

Turkey still in tatters; a country to be watched in all fronts given what intimately the Turks might do to entertain their double losses – the ones to come in the east and the “never in the European Union” in the west! Pestering its neighbours, particularly Greece, might backfire!

The long standing Cyprus issue is completely in the interest of Turkey to be solved; its “adamant” position will not last…

Greece too is in tatters with internal and external problems. For both problems Greece needs only an ARISTOS team to streamline the country, as both the current government and opposition are dealing with petty party politics, continue to have an inhumane behaviour for their fellow citizens and their only interest is to remain / gain power.-  GREXIT is also in the horizon; the when is of course what all need to “know”… expect turbulations there…

China will become soon a financial liability; its economy is not what it really looks like. Chinese expansion might in other times be a good thing, these days cannot match the western pattern.

The Dow Jones looks likely it will end up above the 20,000; tomorrow we will know… That’s an important sign for all intents and purposes!

On another note two major events today in the administrative capital of shipping; a business one and a social one:

Kevin Oates and Mia Jensen

Kevin Oates and Mia Jensen

The 8th Annual Marine Money London Forum at a full house in Park Lane’s Dorchester Hotel was the best ever given the way same enfolded: each panel had a moderator who also covered all the possible questions the 400 plus strong audience could make in the respective issues discussed and it was also 100 percent within time!! Under the theme: “Capital for Shipping in 2017” it will be on air for at least a month, given what took place. All international stakeholders were duly represented and it happened at the best possible time given the outcome of the USA’s presidential election and BREXIT’s influence in all markets, needless to say the current market conditions… After lunch we had also the chance to see three women moderators on par with the morning men to direct the panels in an exceptional way.

We will revert soon with a full write up.

A great cocktail reception sponsored by IRI followed which went until the late hours of the day given the issues of the day! Congratulations to both Mia Jensen and Kevin Oates, as well as their team for the selected subjects of all sessions and the way they conducted the event; excellent!

IMG_4322The social event was the Traditional Lloyd’s Register’s Vassilopitta, like every year in the society’s old listed building in the City.

Nearly 200 guests attending from the London Greek shipping Fraternity; more on this in the special report / article that follows.

Watch now for some of the upcoming events:

The Capital Link’s Cyprus  Shipping Forum on the 9th of February, as well that in Athens for the 8th Greek Shipping Forum on the 15th of February.

Marine Money’s 16th Annual German Ship Finance forum in Hamburg on the 23rd of February. Then in March ink your diary for the 13th Annual Gulf Ship finance Forum in Dubai on the 7th of March and in the Far East, the Singapore one TBA.

The 1st Mare Forum Geneva 2017, “The Charterers – Shipowners Dialogue”,   on Wednesday 5 April!

Have a nice evening and continue to be on guard for every eventuality; we live in interesting times, but also strange times!

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