Home Markets Dry Market’s …volatile rebound; Geopolitics a major obstacle

Dry Market’s …volatile rebound; Geopolitics a major obstacle

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John Faraclas

With the all the Dry Indices having an upwards tendency, one shouldn’t be fooled, but be sensible in his/her expectations for the markets sustainability, as Geopolitics and New World Order following Donald Trump’s election, BREXIT and other important available and hidden factors are about to make everything very different and sour… John Faraclas’ daily recap:

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) closed up 33 points surpassing the 900 point threshold thanks to both the Capers and Panamaxes with a triple and double digit plus figures; at 903 brings a ray of hope, that it might go over and above the 1,000 points.

The Capers with 103 points plus witnessed a BCI 2014 at 1,097 points – again a “good” sign given that the 1,000 point mark was …”conquered”…

The Panamaxes did well too with the BPI gaining 43 points bringing the respective index at 1086…

The Supras and Handies managed single digits of …improvement; the BSI gained seven and the BHSI six points respectively now reading 840 and 457 points…

Now, don’t think that I am a pessimist, on the contrary I always see things from the bright side, but on a pragmatic basis and wish to see the BDI above the 2,200 points – then we can breath… Recently we stated that under the current levels only OPEX is being covered/serviced; what about Capital and Interest then? This can only be achieved when the index goes over this magic level of 2,200 points; END OF THE STORY .-

On the antipode the Wets were stagnant; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BDTI (Cleans) ended up at 831 – minus four points and 601 – same as the last one reported…

CAUTION for the wets…

The price of WTI closed down at USD 52.15 as these lines are being written – we will know tomorrow the final level – but it looks good to us as this is very helpful for the poor masses, comprising the 90 centum on Planet Ocean!

The Containerships still in tatters – we are standby to see the coming losses of at least two major boxship companies…

The Geopolitical situation with all the pressing issues has gone off hand and it remains to be seen how long and deep we are falling.

An analysis follows tomorrow being also a weekly recap.

The panellists

On another tone, we were more than impressed by the presentations on “Just how the new ISO 19030 affect shipping’s bottom line?” at the Institute of Mechanical Engineers at One Birdcage Walk. The trio of Jotun, DNV GL and BIMCO in full force! Excellent slides presentations by Stein Kjølberg of Jotun and Tobias Gröge from DNV GL put the issue in perspective! Good to talk with the third panellist Peter Lundhal Rasmussen from BIMCO. It was one of the events for the media to get hands-on this more than important issue. Indeed it was a great reference for the new possibilities for the shipping industry leading to greater return on investments. Many questions and same continued at the drinks and dips reception which followed. A very well organised event by Blue-C’s Christina Dupré Roos and a very supportive presence of Siri Moldestad Sanna and their respective teams. Will revert with a full account.

Have a nice evening and be on guard  / cautious for every eventuality – nobody ever challenged the Ides of March…

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