A quantitative assessment of the agreement on Greece reached at the Eurogroup of 15 June 2017
Summary of views & key findings
- This study attempts a quantitative assessment of the decisions made for Greece at the Eurogroup of 15 June 2017, with particular emphasis on the clarifications provided regarding the medium- and long-term framework for debt relief.
- The study attempts a replication of the most recently published debt sustainability analyses (DSA) presented in: a) the European Commission’s Compliance Report for the First Review of the Third Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece
(Jun. 2016); and b) the IMF’s Article IV (Feb. 2017).
- Furthermore, it presents a hypothetical baseline scenario, which combines the macro assumptions of the European Comission’s DSA of June 2016 with the fiscal path agreed at the Eurogroup of 15 June 2017; namely, an annual general government primary surplus of 3.5%-of-GDP for the period 2018-22 and a primary surplus close to 2.0%-of-GDP for the rest of the projection horizon (2023-60) – see page 5.
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