Home Banking Regional Economics and Market Strategy Monthly (Tuesday, February 06, 2018)

Regional Economics and Market Strategy Monthly (Tuesday, February 06, 2018)

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EM assets extend early in 2018 their 2-year rally

Promising regional outlook in 2018

REGIONAL MACROECONOMIC & MARKET DEVELOPMENTS & OUTLOOK

  • Promising regional growth prospects in 2018, even though economies are about to or have already passed their cyclical peak
  • Real disposable incomes are expected to continue rising at a lower speed providing support to private consumption
  • The rise of investments is crucial for the medium-term growth prospects of the region
  • Limited room for more expansionary policies in 2018
  • Regional assets kick off year on positive footing
  • Emerging Market bourses have rallied strongly so far this year, with main stock indices in the region of our focus having also firmed
  • Most CESEE currencies gained ground in view of a weaker USD
  • Local-currency government bonds underperform trailing the move in major core markets

COUNTRY FOCUS

  • Bulgaria: Double rating agencies upgrade
  • Cyprus: Solid fiscal performance despite Presidential elections
  • Romania: NBR hiked the KPR for the first time in a decade 
  • Serbia: New credit rating upgrades in December amid improving macroeconomic fundamentals

Viewers can log herebelow  and read the full report: REGIONAL MONTHLY_JAN2018

 

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