Home » The BDI@1,207; still tough times ahead amid perplexed Geopolitics

The BDI@1,207; still tough times ahead amid perplexed Geopolitics

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John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) with 11 points plus, went over and above the 1,200-point threshold; on a weekly basis 22 plus wasn’t bad… up from 1,185! The Wets with mixed feelings and Geopolitics are going to cost still more human lives and billions of unnecessary spending… Shame! John Faraclas’ daily and weekly recap:

The Capers despite the daily improvement of 24 points, on a weekly basis the BCI was down a triple-digit: 130 points proving the volatility as well as the unsustainability of the market…CAUTION!

The Panamaxes lost five points with the BPI standing at 1,500 but on a weekly basis the index was up 19 – from 1,481. CAUTION here too!

The Supras and the Handies are celebrating gains; you don’t have to be big to be beautiful. The BSI was up 12 points surpassing after a very long time the 1,000-point threshold – now reading 1,004; on a weekly basis it was good to witness 112 points plus – from 892 points on the 23rd of February. The BHSI was up seven points since yesterday reading 586 and 52 since last Friday… from 534!

All in all a slightly better figure-wise week, still though 1,040 points below the Dec 2013 closing!!!!! When we go over and above the 2,247 point, then we can our troubles seems so far away…

The Wet’s with mixed feelings; on a daily basis the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 662 – plus four and 604 – minus 18 respectively. On a weekly basis the Dirties were up seven – from 645 and the Cleans minus 14 – from 618 points…

The world must understand that we are still in an economic recession all over Planet Ocean and conversely intermodalism suffers. The world’s debt is despicably high and dangerous; trade still difficult with trade wars already on…. Add protectionism and see what you get. As a result of this, we live in a very dangerous environment and shipping’s shrinkage, with our humble projections, will become shipping for the very very very few – all other wishful thinking is only good for the recycling bin… Did I hear you say fake news?  Regret but this is the situation, the harsh reality if you like it.

The Geopolitical aspects ARE getting far worse and it is shameful as well as despicable to read and hear crazy analysis in the news… -obviously news is what they don’t tell us. Let me remind you the Sin of Hubris: “Managers tend to make their biggest mistakes in things they’ve previously done best. In business, as elsewhere, Hubris is the unforgivable sin of acting cocky when things are going well. As the Greeks tiresomely told us, Hubris is followed inexorably and inevitably by Nemesis”*

The MIGRANTS issue maintains the lead of our society’s sins; what a shame and what a hypocrisy! The way things are being told and the way the 99.99 centum of the media acts, is surely ushering them to their own Nemesis! Indeed we had migration ever since we knew this world, but as said during the screening of the film AMERIKA SQUARE, “the latest MIGRANTS and immigration is Migration under duress” – end of the story!

The Wars in Syria and Iraq continue and same are already spreading with incalculable repercussions for all involved. Afrin and Eastern Ghouta massacres involving all sides and everybody’s apathy, one day will be our Nemesis! Indeed I have said and believe and still maintain that “War Father of all; if you don’t destroy you cannot rebuild. This is the pitiful message from history” – but there are limits too and crossing the lines and certain rules of engagement is counter productive..! For us in shipping, the product of the Second World War were the long period time-charters of the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s to rebuild the world; any objection?

Turkey continues an on purpose “odd” behaviour and actions not only within its territory, not only with its neighbours but beyond and this behaviour must be halted before even its backers regret it more than they have ever imagined in their wildest dreams. We have stressed this before and it is about time to see the US-led NATO alliance, the European Union, Russia – for its own short term purposes and the Muslim world to completely distance themselves from the modern Turkish yoke.

Next door Greece struggles both internally and externally; in the home front amongst others: the financial havoc – this is the reality, given the NPL’s of all kinds, a product-fraud of bankers and politicians’ favouritism by 90 centum; the current government’s alternate citizen protection minister Nikos Toskas if he has even the slightest dignity MUST resign and NOT accuse the police officers –  what else are we going to hear and read when vandals, basically from Greece’s lefty loony and anarchist clans so to speak set Athens on fire destroying business and people’s lives… Wonder who is protecting the citizen’s constitutional rights and wealth. The Mayor of Athens MUST push the government and corner them; enough! On the foreign front the mounting tensions with NATO “ally” Turkey are getting every second more than worse. Rest assured that Greece and Greeks will have the last laugh… It is not the usual conspiracy theory that the enemies of Greece – amongst them its allies, say the Greeks produce as a counter to the sagas of Greece, it is a reality that the means AND (with capital letters) money that have been used is unimaginable to: change the demographics – see the birth rate of Greeks, the move in an internal small but considerable migration act from the eastern Aegean islands to mainly Athens, to the threat that the Turks will invade  (the 1967 and 1974 cases) and conversely the Greeks to acquire billions of dollars’ worth of weapons for the air force, coast guard, land forces, and the navy and the interwoven scandals…The funny story is not just the embezzlement by both ND and PASOK – did I hear you say Akis Tsochatzopoulos, but the delay in naming and shaming all, REPEAT ALL involved even by the current SYRIZA-led regime ! Did I hear you say relations with Albania, fYRoM? Remind you that Greece – not just during the Cold War, was the shield of the West and western European powers against Communism …err Socialism with all its northern neighbours! Having served in very sensitive posts in eastern Macedonia, I know more than well… To cut the long story sort, our supposed to be friends in NATO and Europe– Germany in particular, decided to financially wreck Greece and fatally wounded to try and bring the Greeks in the negotiating table with Turkey , Albania and fYRoM… Shame Shame shame!!! If people including the cocky SYRIZA politicians and few others as well as news makers think that, say the Siemens or the Novartis case are the biggest scandals, don’t look further than your nose and see the entire Greek Shipyards scandals headed by the Scaramanga Yard saga… At this point I must pay tribute to Lloyd’s List – the then executive editor Christopher Meyer, Nigel Lowry, David Glass, Bob Jaques of Naftiliaki and Seatrade respectively  to name but a few honest journalists! We have in previous reports explained the issues with Albania and fYRoM. If anybody wishes a live debate, a live one as same should be, will be more than pleased to entertain you in any A1 TV channel! As these lines are being written we are through the Delphi Economic Forum which ends on Sunday the 4th of March – a very useful forum to understand what’s up….

Cyprus goes through very difficult times with the ENI exploration in its EEZ zone and with Turkey’s naval stance in the Eastern Med prohibiting the ENI drill ship to enter and operate. Italian war ships there to protect same, one wonders the lengths and provocations Turkey can proceed with. Turks might strike. No one should trust Erdogan Turks as well as the Turkish opposition; they are predictably unpredictable.

BREXIT now gets twists and turns and Mrs. May has spell it out!! It will be definitely a very painful and perplexed divorce but enough is enough; German led Brussels failed to deliver. Regret but this is the truth. I am a pro-European, but the way things turned-out with the financial, migrant and security issues created a disgusting situation. The Mighty Continent might have a sour end…

The Italian forthcoming general election this Sunday will possibly open the south-central Med’s Pandora box of revelations given the two main issues that three blocks with respective political parties within have to tackle: the first is the MIGRANTS and the second one Italy’s ailing economy. On the MIGRANTS over 600,000 thousands have landed since the first of January 2013 until the 31st of December 2017!!! They have made the treacherous passage from lawless Libya to Italy and other northern Med nations – now you see why we stressed in previous reports the naval blockade of the entire North Africa coast and the Anatolian coast of Turkey with a mandate and rules of engagement, to stop the state and other sea-mafias operations in these on purpose actions in sending over MIGRANTS of various categories. Italians are very concerned for the social cohesion – the MIGRANTS are one of Italy’s time-bombs! The other issue being the economy in a nation which in the last 70 years produced 60 governments. Italy’s economy despite the beginning to expand in nearly ten years of this financial crisis “produced” really nothing as its GDP remains lower than the pre-crisis one! Close to 19 million people were at risk of poverty and unemployment stands at 10-12 centum in one of the Group 7 or 8 (if you include Russia) nations. CAUTION. We are very much concerned as issues and people are on the edge! ITALEXIT?

What’s wrong with Puigdemont and he abandons bid to be reappointed as regional president in Spain’s Catalonia? 

Are we going to see the new German government sworn in? If so, what will be the cost on the give and take between nearly six parties – a German omelette with a hot potato ..! Let’s see how a possible Merkel-led term operates… We hope that the SDP joins and terminates this despicable stalemate in Europe’s most robust economy as everything in reality was in a standstill and many European issues at stake, particularly the possible US tariffs war mainly in the steel industry… Cars will suffer too; lets see how German led Europe responds… We advise the Germans to be extra cautious as their ca industry will be grounded from the dramatic changes facing the automobiles industry…

Russia has its own agenda and president Putin adheres to maintain same. Let’s see what happens after the presidential election. Overall Russia will saw zero tolerance in Ukraine, the Baltic States – despite what the West believes, so caution and avoidance of cocky western policy is advised. Certainly the West must adopt a different policy there, but one needs strategists from classy backgrounds… Crimea is Russian whatever you bet! Watch out though Russia’s policy with Turkey! The Syrian saga has proved that new Russia under Putin is a force to reckon. Wonder though what and how will end the Russian intrusion not just in the USA’s election but in other nations too; but who doesn’t intrude these days! Awaiting to see the end of the Russian saga in the USA’s latest elections…

At the other side of the Atlantic now; in the US, president Trump one way or another will have to deal with his son-in-law who according to all counts has gone over the top, shootings in schools – a very unfortunate thing to which he MUST change the entire legislation and many foreign issues! His tariffs saga with mainly Europeans, other allies and the Japanese on steel and aluminium will harm both ends. America first, but at what cost for the USA and the rest of the wold… North Korea, Russia with its …invisible nukes, China and many other issues – particularly the Middle East and its vast periphery are issues he must pay attention here and now…

In the Central and South America things are getting more than “interesting”; the Venezuelan presidential election has been pushed for one more month and the 20th of May might see Nicholas Maduro win a second six year term wrecking completely his countrymen or an unimaginable opposition win despite its current abstain stand… We shall see given that US sanctions are on and the poverty level is rising sending Venezuelans to live next door to Colombia. CAUTION! This year, six presidential elections are taking place in the region. On fool’s day we have Costa Rica’s second round; 22 April: Paraguay ; on 27 May: Colombia first round followed by the 17 of June run-off if same is required… Then on the 1st of July is Mexico’s turn… Autumn brings the mega election in Brazil marred with too many mega scandals- ink your diary for the 7th of October… and possibly for the run-off, if same is needed, on the 28th of October. Nearly 600 million people might see a new leader in the Latin American elections.  Corruption and Polarisation are the two main issues in the region; corruption beyond any film director’s imagination. Drugs, despotism are also issues that must end from the US-Mexican border down to Isla del Fuego!

China is trying through low valued goods and trade to conquer the world. The time though will come very soon that this Far-eastern giant will find itself in tatters. You see social capitalism is one thing, trade wars against all yet another. Mind me, Japan is always on a multi alert and Japanese are a super power too, particularly in trade and industry far beyond the Chinese, Indians, and Russians.

Africa; all eyes are down in south Africa awaiting the new leader’s progress in corruption and a very bad economy. Can he deliver? Elsewhere things are getting sour: in Burkina Faso there has been a terrorist attack in the French Embassy and Army HQ’s. Caution as the French can cross the fences there too… In the Democratic Republic of Congo dozens were killed in Ituri following  a fresh outbreak of violence between the Henda and Lendu communities… All in all Africa needs development to end ethnic violence and see the entire continent have a better life for its one billion inhabitants, half  of which are without electricity!

Good to read that Australians turned in 57,000 guns in a national amnesty; a lesson for all! Otherwise the 5th continent slowly but steadily gets its act together for the benefit of its people; we know this from the shipping industry more than anybody else…

I hope Bill Gates warning on cryptocurrencies is more than a statement; lest see what the governments say, as Gates sites deaths from cryptocurrencies  beyond the money laundering saga. Why all this anonymity? Opposing him on the Bitcoin stands Tyler Winklevoss simply saying that same is equal to or better than gold…  We shall know soon as otherwise things can get off hand with people dying and suffering…  I guess that today in our surveillance world, cameras, phones and satellites can tuck and pin us down than we have ever imagined so that could be a good way to truck  down terrorists, drug dealers and all that jazz-lot! Interwoven with drones can wok miracles. Add the fact of the excellent results in trucking MIGRANTS send over by the Turks to the Greek islands and Libyans to Italy and then for the journey into Europe!

Another issue which must end is that of Sexism and in particular not just in Hollywood, but beyond. Very simply: you need two in a tango AND people of both genders should immy report these despicable “incidents” and NOT after receiving accolades… Our message: Grow up and stop mickey-mouse about; you dead well know what I mean. Talking about Sexism let us also give an end to the despicable behaviour of many charities whose personnel overstayed their welcome. Parade them so they get the message! SHut-up where SH stands for Sex Harassment… Let’s don’t talk about Sex Harassment in the shipping industry – on board and ashore were things ARE also NOT in order as many viewers tell us and we have also witnessed over the last forty years!

On another note we attended at the Union Chapel in Islington another unique night with world acclaimed Greek singer Yiannis Kotsiras. A full house applauded Yiannis with his unique songs; nearly 900 people defying the snow attended the show. He revealed that he comes from a seafaring family – his father was a radio officer, and for the fist time, a world’s fist he sang a song created from a letter he wrote to his father; a very touching moment.

Have a nice weekend and be on guard from any eventuality emanating from Pirates and Terrorists wherever you are on Planet Ocean… Meantime mind the weather!!!


*From the book “Up the Organisation” by Robert Townsend.-


Uploaded: 17:26 GMT

Updated: 23:55 GMT

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1 comment

Harilaos Petrakakos March 2, 2018 - 6:44 PM

Dear John. Thank you for your infornative recap of the markets. The fact that our POTUS Trumpakoulas has started with his tariffs we should see new heightened tensions. The arms as well as the planes and the busses and trucks will be costing more to the US Consumer and the agriproducts out of the US will no longer be a favourite with the Chinese and the Europeans. That will hurt. All tariffs hurt. Now as to the Syrian front? Unfortunately they all do not give a damn. This is why these war mongers and all those that tolerate them – you know all these guys at the UN – will be damned for ever.


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