John Faraclas
Without Prejudice
A Capes “dominated” market… amid an imminent geopolitical episode
The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended up 20 points at 889 amid turbulent Geopolitics in this second pre-Easter week. John Faraclas daily, weekly and fortnight recaps:
The BDI was also 99 points better off than last week (Thursday 18/4 as the 19/4 was Good Friday and the Market was closed) when it stood at 790 points… Let’s watch this rise which after all “looks” significant given 163 points rise since the 12 April when it stood at 726 points!
The Capes, the as ever volatile and enigmatic but also …”cursed” size – following the Brazilian dam damn incident, surpassed the 700 point threshold and now reads 783 – plus 92! Plus 293 since 18/4 (490 points) and 365 sine 12/4 (418 points)… A very perplexed situation. CAUTION…
The most favourable and promising size for us – and we have mentioned this on many occasions, is the Panamaxes; the BPI was up four points at 1,186 points, 24 since 18/4 (1,162) and 113 since 12/4 (1,073 points).
Not so good performance for the Supras’ BSI when all expected a better ending; the BSI lost a point and now reads 780. It was though 48 points better off since the 18/4 (732 points) and 69 since 12/4 when it stood at 711!
Unsustainability reigns in the Handies. The BHSI lost two points since yesterday and now reads 389; same was also down a point since the 18/4 (390) and 14 since the 12/4 when it stood at 403 points.
One has to be very cautious with this market dominated with the rise of the Capes following a prolonged fall, better say a collapse of the BCI, following the Brazilian dam damn disaster. Again we reiterate the view that one size whether rising or falling cannot constitute a market nor dictate same. There is also the fear that many nations’ importers cannot afford payments due to the current bleak financial situation – credit crunch not just for Bulk Dry cargoes but also for Wets…
The …Wets now; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 635 – minus one and 586 – plus 13 points respectively. Since the 18/4 the Dirties lost 17 points (from 652) and the Cleans gained just two points. Not much change since the 12/4 when the Dirties stood at 634 – plus one and the Cleans at 592 – minus six points respectively. We are in a new era given the USA’s formidable response in becoming the biggest exporter thanks to shale oil and gas… Are you geared to see Pax Americana completely ruling the oil and gas trades? A new mega challenge is already ante portas!
The WTI fell to US$ 63.30 following a brief surge on 22 and 23 of April when it clocked US$ 66.30. It stood at US$ 64.07 on the 18/4 and US$ 63.89 on 12/4. Expect turbulence AND that will be very soon. You see the Hormuz “scene” might produce tsunamis and wonder what Japan’s response will be… Wonder also Turkey’s “demands” for Iranian oil and exclusions from the USA’s sanctions… CAUTION!
The main Stock Markets try to maintain a bit of buoyancy:
The Dow Jones ended a bit down since yesterday at 26.549.33; it stood at 26,559.53 on 18/4 and 26,412.30 on 12/4…
The FTSE ended slightly down – six points at 7,428.18. It stood at 7,459.87 on the 18/4 and at 7,437.06 on 12/4. Make you assumptions. Obviously the US markets greatly affect the British ones.
In the Might Continent DAX was slightly up at 12,315.17. It was 12,222.38 on 18/4 and 11,999.92 on 12/4… CAC 40 stood at 5,569.35; same was 5,580.37 on 18/4 and 5,502.70 on the 12/4.
In the Feast the Nikkei ended trading down 48.85 points at 22,258.73. It was 22,090.11 on 18/4 and 21,870.56 on 12/4…
Currency-wise be on watch for the US$ and Euro Parity as same might become 1 to 1 or better say US$1 to Euro 1 soon and might also see nasty surprises…
Remember also that the debt on Planet Ocean now stands at US$ 250 trillion – far worse than a Damocles sword case! We need to strip-off from their titles and accolades the Economists and many Academics working, advising in any way governments and companies (private, public, state)… The result is now wide open in front of us: a total failure! On top of this situ you have the Chinese and some of their cronies with the New Silk Road, a project which we have totally condemned for both the Chinese – it will turn a boomerang and for the West – Europe in particular. In case it works peacefully, it will severely traumatise the shipping industry…
Europe should remain self-sustained; full stop and period! At China’s Second Belt and Road Forum we were informed of too many deals being signed and we really wonder… Time will tell! We will support healthy and viable to shipping Chinese business initiates coupled with Peace in the entire region and in particular in South East Europe / East Med. Then we can talk for business and plans!
Now on the “geopolitical” front which we already “lunched” in the above paras:
The MIGRANTS, a shameful issue due to the hypocrisy of our impotent politicians, diplomats and, repeat AND Commissioners in the EU, continue to create havoc and also give rise to right wing parties – the rise is of a ten centum in the EU! Don’t bother to ask about the destruction of social cohesion! Shame!!! Shame as the way these people are being treated is totally inhumane and they are used as pawns and chips for others’ scope and means. The time will come, as it always happens in history when all involved in this scam seat on the dock! Remember this.
The Faulty line from Gib to Afghanistan and from the Caucuses to the Horn of Africa including now three hot spots: North Africa, the Balkans and East Med will produce more mess. Spain included in the region has an election right now!! It will be the third general election in four years and many wonder if the social media can be controlled as well as what VOX will do percentage-wise…
In exactly a month’s time the Euro elections are on and also Greece’s Municipal ones – imagine a triplex one in Greece or PM Tsipras has other designs… It’s a big Catch 22 end game here… Greek politics need a complete revamp and an electoral system like that in the UK – which we have numerous times mentioned and aired in our live TV appearances – mainly one candidate per party per constituency!!!
We are pleased to see in both the European Elections as well as in the Municipal ones members of the Greek Shipping Community as candidates; amongst them worth mentioning Captain – Merchant Navy, finance expert and president of the Propeller Club of USA Port of Piraeus, Greece, George Xyradakis as a European MEP candidate, Vangelis Milt. Marinakis, Irene S. Daifas, Thanos Logothetis, Costas Moutzouris, Costas D. Faraklas, Regina Faraclas as Municipal candidates. Already these people make the difference and have and will produce results. Wish them all every success and we urge you to vote for them as they know better than others that things must be shipshape in the Local Authorities and a good representation to defend Greece’s Shipping Interests to all intents and purposes in Brussels !
The Banking system must get its act together as closing unnecessarily branches causes harm to many people and in particular the elder ones, needless to say the harm for local business. An actual example that we have witnessed is that in the parish of the Dormition of the Holy Mother of God (Panagitsa), Paleon Faliron, Athens, Greece were the local branch of the National Bank of Greece will close down in ten days… The entire neighbourhood sites no reason, just bad management decision and we can call those decision makers who wish to “streamline” the bank…on a live TV debate on a A1 Greek or UK channel and appropriately entertain them… Shame!! Another similar case happened in my Motherland – that is Vrontados, Chios, Chios Island Greece, when the then managers and shareholders of the Commercial Bank of Greece tried to close down the Vrontados Branch! You all know what happened with the French gays and dolls… The Bank finally remained! The worse thing is that with the pandemic of criminals blowing up or stealing ATM machines so not a single business wish to have an ATM machine… Pensioners and old people rely on an actual bank branch as they are totally ignorant of IT and virtual banking et al – you dead well know what I mean. Some people have lost completely the word RESPECT !!!
Next door Turkey is in severe trouble with very bad financial figures and a dropping, a worsening scene that president Erdogan’s totalitarian and religious policies brought particular the last 16 (sixteen) years his in power destroying both his people as well as causing issues with NATO and the EU… Time please Mr. Erdogan! E N O U G H! The end is nigh. Obviously he will do whatever a religious despot does in these circumstances when encircled with too many issues. His continuous bullying of all his neighbours and his professional blackmail are his weapons and we must all tell him by sawing zero tolerance that enough is enough and he will create a terrible mess. Even today, Good Friday his war-planes violated Greece’s and the European Union’s Airspace…
A dreadful and despicable case enfolds in Cyprus involving a 35 year old Army Officer; will keep you posted of this terrible massacre with demonstrators there – mainly women demanding full justice and reforms!
Italy tries to get out of yet another financial crisis…
In France, president Macron gives in to the Gilet Jaunes – Yellow Vests, siting and recognising that at the core of the movement were fair demands…! The fuel prices obviously is a very difficult exercise for every politician to curb… this matter rests elsewhere… He promised tax cuts, higher pensions and surprise surprise a reform of the civil service! Meantime every effort is put together for the restoration of Notre Dame!
Germany goes through difficult times… See the latest failure of two of its banks to merge; Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank abandoned talks. The German Economy is in tatters; wake up as in February German Industrial production has fallen with the exemption of construction and energy. Manufacturing orders have fallen too. The GDP declined in Q3 0f 2018 by 0.2 centum and didn’t grow in the following thee months… CAUTION!
In the United Kingdom the BREXIT issue tends to rock everything, Europe and the World at large as things develop… CAUTION and reasoning with the reality is the best way out. Scotland comes back with another independence Referendum, LibDems in their Euro campaign with a pledge to stop BREXIT and that only the peoples vote will end the BREXIT paralyses – what a Greek word eh! In the Shipping …front P&O has sued the British Government over no-deal BREXIT ferry case and challenges the EUROTUNNEL settlement!
Enough with the Mighty Continent…
In South America the Venezuelan mess continues with people still fleeing the country by any means they can found. In a latest incident we are informed that 21 Venezuelan migrants are missing trying to each the Island of Tinidad and Tobago when their boat capsized… A repeat story like those we face in the entire Meditarranean Sea… Pity. Let’s see for how long president Nicholas pester his citizens. Shame!
In Africa now; two issues: firstly we have Cyclone Kenneth devastating Mozambique since yesterday with winds 140mph! A d i s a s t e r of incalculable proportions! Secondly in Libya were things might get once again out of hand and we warn that we might see an all out war there… CAUTION!
In the Far East now. In Japan we are going to have due to health reasons the abdication of Emperor Akihito and Crown Prince Naruhito will ascend the Chrysanthemum Throne and become the new Emperor!
Finally, in the Subcontinent and the Sri Lanka massacre which will continue to bother us for a long time! What we witnessed from CCTV footage is despicable… CAUTION!
Have a nice evening and remain on guard from actions emanating from Pirates, Terrorists, Criminals and Business Hooligans whatsoever wherever you are on Planet Ocean. Ensure our warning are fully read and understood as well as spread from our viewers to their fiends and colleagues worldwide given the continuous despicable events that take place. Happy Easter too to the Eastern Orthodox Christians – a long weekend yet again and then …”capitulate” on May the 1st!
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Uploaded: 23:30 BST
Updated: 23:58 BST
