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20-Aug-2019

ABOVE-NORMAL HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
Atlantic Ocean/Eastern Seaboard, United States

Above-normal hurricane season forecast
Tuesday, August 20, 2019, Atlantic Ocean/Eastern Seaboard, United States

NOAA forecasters monitoring oceanic and atmospheric patterns say conditions are now more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity since El Nino has now ended. Two named storms have formed so far this year and the peak months of the hurricane season, August through October, are now underway…

…Seasonal forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 45% (up from 30% from the outlook issued in May). The likelihood of near-normal activity is now at 35%, and the chance of below-normal activity has dropped to 20%…

…The number of predicted storms is also greater with NOAA now expecting 10-17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 5-9 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 2-4 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). This updated outlook is for the entire six-month hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30…

…On average, the Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes…

(For information about operations in the United States, contact GAC North America at usa@gac.com)

Source: Extracts from NOAA (U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – www.noaa.gov) media release

 

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