GLOBAL & REGIONAL MONTHLY (Wednesday, 9 September 2020)
GLOBAL & REGIONAL MONTHLY (September 2020)
HIGHLIGHTS
Recent high-frequency indicators suggest that the global economic recovery is broadening out, bolstering investors’ sentiment about the return to normalcy. Manufacturing conditions have improved significantly, while services activity still lags behind. Lack of seasonal tourism demand, coupled with the reintroduction of travel restrictions amid accelerating Covid-19 infections, suggest that the recovery in services may prove rather difficult. Our global GDP forecast remains at -3.2% for 2020, before rebounding to 5.0% in 2021. Nevertheless, a broad-based and synchronous recovery across sectors and countries is not expected before Q2 2021, as widespread vaccinations against the virus are not expected before mid-2021.
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