Home Banking Main risk to recession comes from loose ECB policy, Inverted yield curve does not prove US recession imminent, and more

Main risk to recession comes from loose ECB policy, Inverted yield curve does not prove US recession imminent, and more

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Main risk to recession comes from loose ECB policy

By Jacques de Larosière

Reasons for the European Central Bank to raise interest rates now to counter rising inflation are overwhelming. The arguments against prompt action are largely invalid. Increasing rates today would have a much weaker restrictive effect than doing nothing and letting inflation flourish. The chief risk of recession comes not from raising rates but from maintaining present extremely loose policies.

 Inverted yield curve does not prove US recession imminent
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By Julian Jacobs
In March, the yield on two-year US Treasury bonds exceeded the yield on 10-year bonds. This inauspicious signal has preceded seven of the past eight recessions. There are two key reasons why the yield curve inversion is not necessarily a sign of a coming recession. 
 
 MEETINGS 
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MNB-OMFIF Financial stability conference 2022
Thursday 26 – Friday 27 May, Hybrid
This conference, jointly hosted by Magyar Nemzeti Bank and OMFIF, brings together policy-makers, the private sector and researchers from around the world to provide insights on financial stability. Over two days, it features lectures, roundtables and presentations. 
 
 ON DEMAND 
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Looking back on 25 years of the MPC
Andrew Sentance, former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, speaks to Neil Williams, OMFIF’s chief economist, on the 25th anniversary of the MPC. With the committee a ‘quarter century not out’, Sentance shares his experience of being one of the more outspoken members. 
 
 Sustainable Policy Institute Journal, Spring 2022
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This edition of the SPI journal examines the future of energy, discussing how energy security and renewables are interlinked and exploring how the Ukraine crisis could lead to faster decarbonisation in the mid to long term. 

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