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Mid-year outlook from leading shipbroker Simpson Spence Young

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After a volatile H1 2022, leading shipbroker Simpson Spence Young (SSY) reviews the last six months and highlights areas of particular interest. This comprehensive overview scrutinises various drivers in commodities and shipping markets, including how the war in Ukraine and developing emissions regulations is affecting the state of play.

Contributions come from a range of senior research and broking experts and cover dry bulk, tanker and gas freight markets, shipping investments, CO2 emissions and derivatives.

Read the full report here

SSY Chairman Mark Richardson said:

“When we look back over the first six months of 2022, there are numerous events that
have contributed to what’s been a turbulent time for economies across the world. The
conflict in Ukraine has had far reaching consequences. This, together with global weather events, the energy crisis, growing inflation, the ongoing impact of COVID-19 and
disruption to supply chains, has resulted in a highly volatile environment for the shipping industry…” 

Highlights include: 

Shipping Emissions

Over the first six months of 2022, international shipping carbon emissions have
continued on an upward trajectory and, according to Marine Benchmark estimates,
are now estimated to have surpassed 850 million tonnes on an annual basis, 1.3% above
2021 levels. While this analysis picks up all vessels over 100 GT, it does exclude non-IMO registered vessels. [P45]

Dry Bulk

Even before the invasion of Ukraine, all sectors of the dry bulk carrier fleet were affected by cargo loss. For Capes, by far the most significant cargo losses of note unconnected with war in Ukraine were iron ore from Australia and Brazil. [P7] 

Tankers

The first half of 2022 witnessed tremendous volatility in tanker earnings in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as this swiftly reversed the extreme weakness that many tanker segments had been experiencing at the start of the year. [P11]

Chemicals 

The Russian invasion of the Ukraine changed the dynamics of the market at a stroke. The cost of bunkers increased substantially, forcing ship owners to pass the additional cost onto charterers by way of increased freight rates. [P14]


LNG

The LNG shipping market has once again been dominated by the roller coaster that is the commodity itself, natural gas. The gas price environment has been strong all year and has not slowed down from the momentum that was seen in 2021. [P27]

Derivatives 

This year we have seen the forces pulling traders in both directions. On the one side, uncertainty around supply chains is still very high while on the other, inflation and central banks responses can put a question mark on future demand. [P32]

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