“Intermodalism and Global Trade at times of Crisis” . BY JOHN FARACLAS QMUL 20 FEB 2024 18:00 GMT BANCROFT BUILDING LECTURE HALL 2.40*
Good evening and Thank you Prof. Markopoulos as well as your esteem University of Queen Mary for inviting me once again for another Guest lecture. Good Evening dear students of this Postgraduate Master level; Happy New Year to all with Good Health above all and Success in your studies!!! When I say Happy New Year, remind you WE JUST HAD THE ENTRY TO THE YEAR OF THE DRAGON AND AS I SEE, THERE IS A STRONG FAR EAST PRESENCE HERE IN THIS CLASS!
I am thrilled to give this lecture to you, particularly given the time and momentum of what is going on as we speak. Intermodalism has been one of my great love affairs and coupled with Geopolitics creates an adventurous so to say issue that few have analysed in depth to understand No shipping, No Shopping, No sipping.
I begin by stressing that, MAN is an aggressive creature and this can hardly be disputed! With the exception of certain rodents, no other vertebrate habitually destroys members of its own species… The sombre fact is that we are the cruellest and most ruthless species that has ever walked the earth! This is something that is always in front of me from Anthony Storrs’ book: HUMAN AGGRESSION
Globalisation and Decarbonisation
TRADE BLOCKS
UNETHICAL CAPITALISM
The World’s Aim is to Decarbonise; for me simultaneously and at a faster pace, the World MUST De-Globalise… (reasons etc to be on the spot explained). Worth mentioning what the CEO of DNV GL – Maritime Knut Orbeck-Nilssen said: “Decarbonisation will be one of the mega-trends that will shape the maritime industry over the next decades, especially in light of the new IMO Greenhouse gas strategy”
On Trade Blocks: see the G7, the G20, EU, BRICS and others…
Emissions on each and every Garment transported from say the Subcontinent (Pakistan, India, Bangladesh) and or the Far East (Shanghai to Europe and the rest of the World…)
Shipping’s emissions count for ONLY 2,7 centum, err percent of all Emissions, so we are clean, still the offshore, the land people, such as the politicians and industrialists, attack our industry, failing to see the dozens of skeletons in their cupboards…!
Intermodalism is the combination of all means of transport: Land, Air and Sea. A very much synchronised combination to achieve fast, reliable, safe, secure service not only from Shippers to Receivers but from the primarily place of production of Country A to delivery to the end user in Country B !! I have just mentioned the word SYNCHRONISED… we excel better than the Conductors of the Orchestras!
Land: Tracks, (TIR’s) Rails…
Air: Airplanes – both Passenger ones and Pure cargo ones as well as mixed in a ratio designated by the routes needs. Lately we can witnessed the Drones…
Sea: by all types of ships, whether Cargo – General Cargo Ships,Roro Cargo ones, Ro-Ro / Ferries, Lo/Lo, LoLo/RORO, coastal ones to put you in the full picture.
You hear of Logistics etc etc. This issue of Intermodalism is pure top brass logistics with importance and immense values involved, whether goods are delivered or not; whether Goods are delayed or not (see what happens with Climate Crisis in the Panama Canal as we speak. See what happens in a Confrontation, say the War we are witnessing between Ukraine and Russia… See what happens in the mini conflagration in the Middle East with Hamas and Israel and the Red Sea effect, given the Houthis flair up… and the disruption of Shipping when Ships have to go via the Cape of Good Hope, double distance more or less to come to Europe.
I MUST stress here the issue of Blockchain. Blockchain could deliver safer global food supplies!!! Blockchain will be a game changer in the food and shipping sectors over the next decade!! Blockchain technology is taking Planet Ocean by storm!! It takes the soft commodities by storm!!! Its aim is to enhance traceability and transparency within the World Food Chain!! It could also significantly transform food safety and shelf life, while tackling fraud and preventing agro-terrorism… BLOCKCHAIN is making similar inroads into global Shipping and Logistics, for instance through its adoption by Maersk using Microsoft Azure cloud-based software packages and smartphone Apps to facilitate faster real time communications and resolution in marine insurance claims. Food companies and retailers see BLOCKCHAIN as a way to simplify their supply chains with automatic tracking and crucial information, such as temperature and quality of goods, shipment and delivery dates and safety certifications for production facilities. It can trace contamination, so NESTLE, DOLE, TYSON, and Unilever work together!! although BLOCKCHAIN is still in its inception in most emerging markets and may be susceptible to hype, its exponential growth over the next decade or so looks like a game-changer for the global food and shipping sectors.-
Here we have to built an INCLUSIVE BUSINESS. Here in turbulent times we have, business leaders we have to ensure that their organisations are as inclusive as they can be, by:
1 ENGAGE YOUR BOARD
2 COLLECT DATA
3 LEAD BY EXAMPLE
4 REVIEW KEY OPERATIONS AND
5 ENSURE OVERSIGHT
Imagine the costs (a great number of costs – many categories: Wages, Insurances, Cost of Fuels (what we call BUNKERS with an “U” arising out of what I just said above in this mess in Ukraine and the Red Sea) and remember: “YOU HAVE TO DELIVER WHAT YOU PROMISE”. Remember: Promises make Debts and Debts make Promises!!
But how given the very dangerous circumstances, particularly those in the Red Sea. “Navigating a ship is Risky Business”, end of the story as they say. WE NEED to understand the “TOOLS OF THE TRADE”. There is a book under this title by Bali Padda…
The major part of Intermodalism is performed by SHIPS; and as the situation gets off hand there isn’t any more SITTING BACK AND WAITING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS.-
BUNKERING OF SHIPS A BIG DEAL!
TOC Terminal Operators Conference
I am not a Fortune Teller, but indeed I am a Fortune Seller. Back a year ago exactly these same days, we had the issue of RECOVERY. A Delayed RECOVERY and the Expectations where HIGH AS 2023 begun and then???? WHAT?
A Traumatised Global Economy from the recession which bothered us in 2008 and continued, THE COVID PANDEMIC, the WAR in UKRAINE – following the 2014 Crimean saga (The Russians took Crimea virtually overnight) makes things very bad. Add the ISRAELI – HAMAS Conflict and see what you get!!!
At this point I must distinguish the difference between SHIPPING ITSELF. There are SHIPS belonging to LINER COMPANIES, mostly belonging to the G7 Group of nations. Companies otherwise under the Colonial type of Shipping and SHIPS being TRAMP ones belonging to complete pure shipowners, either listed in the STOCK MARKETS or completely private. Whatever happens in this Industry’s sector, reflects in the fall of shares in the STOCK MARKETS!!! Now, how do you respond WHEN THE SHIT HITS THE FAN in both instances?? (MIND ME, AND DON’T EXCUSE MY FRENCH AS THERE IS A BOOK CALLED “WHAT TO DO WHEN THE SHIT HITS THE FAN” by Dave Black) . The basis is: ARE YOU PREPARED TO DEAL WITH AN EMERGENCY? Say as we live now (NOW MEANS SOMETHING WITHOUT DURATION).
ANOTHER MAJOR ISSUE IN BOTH CASES IS “THE SHIPOWNERS’ AND CHARTERERS’ CONCERNS REGARDING THEIR CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS” IN A PURE PIRACY AND TERRORISM SITUATION !
RANSOMS FOR RELEASING VESSELS AND CREW. THEN THE CARGO ISSUE; ANY CARGO TYPE. MILLIONS ARE INVOLVED…
VERY SIMPLY YOU NEED GOOD NEGOTIATION TACTICS AND SKILLS. POLITICIANS, INFLUENTIAL PEOPLE, MEANS, SPECIAL FORCES, EXCELLENT DIPLOMACY AND LAWYERS WHO KNOW BETTER THAN YOU WHAT TO DO. SEAFARERS’ LIVES ARE ABOVE ANYTHING.
BANKRUPTCIES RESULTING OUT OF ALL THIS….
DID I HEAR YOU SAY CARGO INSURANCE???
WE LIVE IN AN UPHEAVAL !! (by THE WAY BUY THE book “The upheaval” by Jared Diamond where you can see HOW NATIONS COPE WITH CRISIS AND CHANGE.
NOW HERE WE COME TO THE BIG QUESTION: WHAT ABOUT THE INDIVIDUAL SHIPOWNERS? THE OWNERS OF THE CARGO? THE SHOP OWNERS – SUPERMARKETS ETC SHOPS OF ANY KIND… GOODS OF ANY KIND…
“ENGINEERING CATASTROPHES – CAUSES AND EFFECTS OF MAJOR ACCIDENTS” BY JOHN LANCASTER WILL HELP YOU UNDERSTAND A LOT ON THIS ISSUE, AS STUDYING CATASTROPHES WILL MAKE YOU GAIN KNOWLEDGE AND POWER IN FINDING SOLUTIONS!!
SEE NOW WHAT HAPPENS AT THE OTHER SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC AND IN PARTICULAR IN PANAMA, THE PANAMA CANAL SUFFERS DRAUGHT... A VERY MESSY SITUATION AS SHIPS HAVE TO GO DOWN TO THE MAGELLAN STRAITS AND GO FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE PACIFIC AND VICE – VERSA… THIS REMINDS ME OF THE years 535/536 DARK SUN… VOLCANIC ERUPTION, ASTEROID COLLISION…. THIS WAS RECORDER BY JOHN OF EPHESUS… CLIMATE CRISIS CAN BRING MANY MORE ISSUES AS IT DID THEN. ANOTHER BOOK BY DAVID KEYS: “CATASTROPHE…”
I WILL END WITH THE IMPORTANT ISSUE THAT WE ARE PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY AND WHATEVER EMANATES WITHIN: RELIGION, PERCEPTIONS, POLITICAL IDEOLOGIES…
AND WHAT’S THE ROUTE OF RECOVERY…IF ANY…. I AM WORKING ON PLOTTING THE JOURNEY TO A NEW BUSINESS MODEL TO COUNTER TO ALL THAT HAPPENS.
I WILL END IN A SIMILAR WAY THAT I STARTED THIS LECTURE: ONCE WE WERE CANNIBALS. ITS ALL ABOUT THE SURPRISING REASONS HUMANS HAVE BEEN EATING EACH OTHER FOR MILLENNIA – AND THIS IS THE MAIN THEME OF THE LATEST New Scientist MAGAZINE 17 FEB 2024… 1972 AIRCRASH IN THE ANDES WITH ROBERTO CANESSA TELLING AN EXCRUCIATING STORY OF HOW SURVIVORS ATE OTHERS TO REMAIN ALIVE!!!! WAR FATHER OF ALL; IF YOU DON’T DESTROY YOU CANNOT REBUILT. THIS IS THE PITIFUL MESSAGE FROM HISTORY.
THANK YOU!
And now I am open for any QUESTIONS whatsoever you wish…
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*Guest lecture delivered on 20 February 2024 and after popular demand from many who couldn’t be present have decided to upload verbatim my lecture’s notes.
