These are my main takes on the market right now – key trades and key risks:
“Average spot rates are down this week across all main fronthaul trades out of the Far East.
https://www.xeneta.com/news/xeneta-weekly-ocean-container-shipping-market-update-20.02.2026
“From Far East to US West Coast and US East Coast, it is a textbook market development with falling spot rates coinciding with a slight uptick in offered capacity.
“It is a different story from Far East to North Europe where offered capacity has decreased week-on-week but spot rates continue to fall. This suggests an even weaker market on this trade.
“2026 is expected to be a year defined by overcapacity in container shipping, compounded by a largescale return of services to the Red Sea. Rising tensions between US and Iran could influence this situation, especially if it threatens Houthi militia resuming attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea.
“Even if there is not a full escalation in conflict between US and Iran, the military posturing and rhetoric from political leaders can influence the security situation in the region and see carriers slow down plans to resume Red Sea transits. If so, this would delay a largescale return of container shipping to the Red Sea and ease the overcapacity headache for carriers deeper into 2026.”
Check out my LinkedIn profile – for updates this week on Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea and Schedule Reliability.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-sand-0983084
Meet with Xeneta at TPM26: Book it here: https://www.xeneta.com/meet-with-xeneta-at-tpm26
