by Theodore Kontes
Revising the forecasts for 2026 after the war in the Middle East and following the recent announcement of the official results for 2025, it appears that the results are very close to our predictions.
Thus, for 2025 overall, we have 6,129 arrivals and 8,415,713 passenger arrivals, with Piraeus naturally at the top with 863 arrivals and 1.85 million passenger arrivals. Next are the two destinations competing for 2nd place, with Mykonos securing 2nd place with 762 arrivals and 1.2 million passenger arrivals, and Santorini with 728 arrivals and 1.2 million passenger arrivals.
Regarding the significant decrease in arrivals in Santorini, the seismic activity on the island at the beginning of the season played an important role, fortunately for a limited period.
The large islands and main destinations, which are Corfu, Rhodes, Heraklion, Patmos, Chania, Katakolo, and Kefalonia, complete the top ten as main destinations in the Territory.
Notable is the increase in traffic in Chania and Syros compared to 2024, which is due to additional calls at the two ports at the beginning of the season, particularly with the change of Santorini as a destination due to seismic activity in the spring of 2025. In the other destinations/ports, there was some normal variation, mostly increasing.
Analyzing the nationalities of cruise passengers, we observe that America remains stable up to 2025 with approximately 2.90 million passenger arrivals. This is followed by England with 1.18 million and Germany/Austria with 1.1 million, Italy with 0.68, Spain with 0.58, South America with 0.55, France with 0.38, Canada with 0.21. Following are the Netherlands with 0.10 and Portugal with 0.08, and the Scandinavian countries with about 0.22 in total, and Turkey with 0.16, Israel with 0.09, Australia with 0.08, China with 0.07. Overall, the other Asian markets gather no more than 0.03, and other countries/nationalities about 0.05.
Regarding the forecasts for 2026, we notice several problems and causes that will affect tourism in general and cruises, such as the fact that the Eastern Mediterranean is close to the affected areas of the Middle East as well as the attacks in Turkey and Cyprus.
Also, negative influence comes from the announcements made by the Iranians about possible attacks towards Europe since, as they announced, the range of the missiles they possess is more than 4,000 miles.
Another problem is the entrapment of cruise ships in the disputed area. Six ships are trapped in the Middle East, and some of them were scheduled for the summer season in the Aegean and the rest of the Eastern Mediterranean.
Two TUI ships (4/5), one MSC ship, and two more CELESTYAL ships have uncertain schedules for when their summer programs will be planned. MSC and TUI (a total of 3 ships) are discussing canceling their summer programs and remaining docked until the cessation of hostilities. Of course, everything will depend on the duration of the war and until free, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is achieved. There is particular concern mainly for ships of American/Israeli interests but also for ships flying flags of countries that are friendly to these two nations.
Destinations such as Israel, Egypt, and more generally the Easternmost Mediterranean are areas that particularly worry tour operators and cruise companies.
Analyzing the nationalities of the visitors, we can say that initially from Israel, but also from America, there is either a rejection of or a limitation of their vacations in our region.
According to the statistics so far, there has been a decrease in bookings, with tourists generally taking a wait-and-see approach, hoping that hostilities will end soon.
It is noteworthy, of course, that bookings for the summer season are stuck at very low levels, with some route cancellations.
There are still no cancellations for the summer months, only by companies and for a period they have decided.
Regarding future bookings, they are expected to be at particularly low levels for various reasons, including increased expenses and airfares to embarkation destinations.
What seems almost certain is the quite low traffic of American passengers as well as Israelis for almost the entire summer season, while a large increase is expected in the Caribbean from Americans remaining in their own country.
Our initial forecasts for 2026 were very optimistic since there was momentum in cruising, with a prediction of an increase of 4-5%. At this moment, we would be very satisfied if we could maintain the 2025 levels, but such a thing is probably very optimistic as the duration of the war seems to be extending. In our forecasts, and in an optimistic scenario, there would be an increase in traffic to the destinations of the Ionian and Adriatic from Italy to the Greek islands and Croatia.
The Easter cruises in several companies have been canceled due to low occupancy or on ships that are trapped in the Middle East.
Of course, there is also another thought and hope, that tourists visiting Dubai/Abu Dhabi/Doha and other destinations in the Middle East, as well as tourists who had planned trips to Egypt, Turkey, Israel, will be redirected to Greek destinations since Greece is considered a safe destination, including cruise programs.
Hopes for our tourism and cruising at the beginning of the tourist season are based on Europe, with tourists from various European countries planning their holidays in our country, albeit with reduced potential compared to 2025. However, everyone is called to operate in an environment that is more expensive, more nervous, and clearly more unstable.
In conclusion, everything will depend on the duration of the war crisis in combination with the economic crisis, which unfortunately will be a time-consuming matter and will continue for a relatively long period until a return to normality.
We hope that the hostilities will end soon, that we will soon return to normalcy, to planning in the tourism sector, as well as to economic review and stability in our tourism product, greatly aiding our local communities as well as our country in general.
