With escalating tensions in the Middle East and the continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz raising concerns over global fuel supplies, questions are mounting over the knock-on impact for UK air freight.
While widespread disruption has yet to materialise, industry experts warn that indirect pressures are already beginning to shape capacity, pricing and planning across the sector.
Viewers can find here below some insight to the ongoing situation on behalf of Sarah Powell, Associate Director of Air Freight Services at Baxter Freight, one of the UKs leading independent logistics specialists:
“The current situation around the Strait of Hormuz is not yet causing immediate disruption to UK air freight, but we are starting to see indirect pressure build across the market.
“Shippers are becoming increasingly cautious and are planning further ahead than usual, anticipating potential volatility in fuel availability and pricing. That forward planning in itself is a signal that the market is bracing for change.
“At this stage, there is no expectation of widespread flight cancellations. However, we are likely to see more selective adjustments by airlines. Less profitable routes may be reduced first, and high-frequency routes could see some scaling back. Any reduction in flights will inevitably tighten cargo capacity in certain lanes.
“If fuel supplies do become more constrained, airlines are expected to prioritise passengers and baggage over freight. This is particularly significant for bellyhold cargo, which makes up a substantial portion of global air freight capacity and is typically the first to be impacted in these scenarios.
“We do not anticipate any regions becoming completely inaccessible, but shippers should expect longer transit times and rising costs. The extent of disruption will depend heavily on how individual countries manage their fuel supplies and allocation.
“From a pricing perspective, the impact is already being felt, with fuel surcharges increasing frequently, and rate validity becoming much shorter. This means shipments need to be booked quickly, leaving less room for long-term planning and forcing both forwarders and shippers to operate more reactively.
“Overall, while the disruption may appear gradual, the combined effect of tighter capacity, rising costs and reduced flexibility could make air freight significantly more challenging in the weeks ahead.”
– Sarah Powell, Associate Director of Air Freight Services, Baxter Freight.
