By Koce Gjorgjiev, Owner, Eagle Transportation Group
Recent port data is pointing to a clear shift in activity along the Middle Corridor. As more shipments are routed through key ports, we see cargo throughput volumes increase significantly after 2021. This is not entirely straightforward, because while overall volumes are rising, trends in containerized cargo suggest that the structure of trade is not evolving in an even way. This points to growth potential and operational challenges.
The war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and supply chain disruptions due to COVID-19 have forced companies to find new ways to move goods between Asia and Europe. These factors contributed to the global trade flows. As a result, the Middle Corridor has moved into focus as a practical alternative, linking China to European markets through Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the Black Sea.
While using port-level data from 2010 to 2024 this analysis takes a closer look at what is happening on the ground and focusing the discussion on measurable performance. The key question is simple: has the corridor delivered better results since 2021? To measure this, the study looks at two things:
1. How much cargo is moving (throughput growth)
2. What kind of cargo is moving (especially how much is containerized)
Big increase in cargo volumes after 2021
The results clearly show that something changed after 2021, before that, growth in Middle Corridor ports was actually slightly negative. After 2021, it jumped to around 9% average annual growth, which is a big difference. What’s even more important is that this didn’t happen everywhere. Western European ports didn’t show the same kind of change. That means this is not just a normal recovery but it’s something specific to the Middle Corridor.
In simple terms, more cargo is being redirected through this route, and ports along the corridor are handling a lot more volume than before.
Container trade is going in the wrong direction
Even though total cargo is increasing, there is a problem. The share of containerized cargo actually went down after 2021. Before 2021 about 12.8% of cargo was containerized and after 2021 about 8.5%. This means that most of the new growth is coming from bulk cargo, not containers. Why does this matter? Because containerized cargo is usually higher value, easier to handle and better integrated into global logistics systems, bulk cargo on the other hand, is cheaper, less stable and more dependent on raw materials and price cycles. So even though volumes are going up, the quality of logistics integration is not improving.
Still a big gap compared to Western Europe
When we compare the Middle Corridor to Western European ports, the difference is still very large. Western EU ports have around 48 -49% container share, while Middle Corridor ports are only around 11 -12%. That’s a huge gap, but interestingly, this gap didn’t really change after 2021. It didn’t get worse, but it didn’t improve either. So what we’re seeing is growth in size, but not real structural progress.
What this means in practice
The Middle Corridor is clearly becoming more important. It is handling more cargo and proving that it can work as an alternative route between Asia and Europe. But at the same time, it is not yet becoming a modern, container-based logistics system like the major Western European ports. This shows an important point where just because a corridor grows, it doesn’t mean it is becoming more advanced. For real progress, the corridor would need better container infrastructure, stronger rail and port connections, more efficient operations and better coordination between countries.
Conclusion
After 2021, the Middle Corridor experienced strong growth in cargo volumes, and this growth is clearly linked to geopolitical changes. However, this growth is mostly driven by bulk cargo, not containerized trade. That means the corridor is expanding, but it is not yet catching up with more developed logistics systems. So overall, the Middle Corridor is growing, but still has a long way to go before it can compete at the same level as Western European ports.
“This research provides a critical reality check for the logistics sector. While the Middle Corridor has proven its strategic importance in a changing geopolitical landscape, true competitiveness will depend on its ability to transition from volume growth to structural modernization. The future of Eurasian trade will be shaped not just by where goods move, but by how efficiently and intelligently they are handled.”
Tanase Stamule – Dean, Bucharest University of Economic Studies
and here is a valuable quote on the above by Irene Rosberg, Programme Director, The Blue MBA
“An expansion of the transport capacity of the Middle Corridor will help increase the transport volume and has the potential to benefit Europe not only through access to the growing markets of Central Asia but also faster connection to North Africa, Mediterranean and the Middle East.”
