BDI’s weekly fall and Geopolitical madness rule the day

John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index), despite the Capers’ upwards rally, was down; Geopolitics coupled with sheer madness rule the day and will inflict despicable damage to many if we don’t stop some moron politicians and media cronies. John Faraclas’ weekly recap:

The BDI gained 36 points since yesterday and now reads 800 – despite an exceptional rally by the Capers, which is four points down from last week’s 804 points.

The Capers’ BCI 2014 was up 193 points clocking 1,680,  which is 114 points plus since last Friday’s  1,566 points. Volatility which dictates caution must be observed.

The Panamaxes were up one point at 646, but down 12 points since last week’s 658 points. Our favourable size “finds” it a bit difficult, but we shall see.

The Supras’ BSI lost yet another point; now down at 660 points which is also minus 28 points since last week’s 688.

The Handies’ BHSI steady at 415 points but down four since last week’s 419!

The Wets once again with the usual mixed up/down “feelings”. The last published BDTI and BCTI stood at 555 (plus six) and 386 (down three) respectively. On a weekly basis there was a plus of 19 and a minus three points respectively from the 536 and 416 recorded a week ago.

The WTI as these lines are being written stands at US$ 43.10 (17:55 BST)… caution or hope; we shall see.

Take cover as the Markets might swing dangerously; these markets, wet or dry belong only to the most capable masters of the seven seas; unfortunately  they are very few left! When the hoi polloi vanish and the rainbow appears, it will be another day!

All Box-ship categories were heading downwards… The Hanjin saga effects begin to bite… and cause problems. Container shipping has a future but the planning is difficult…

The LNG market needs patience…

The shipfinance front vis-a-vis IPO’s remains negative! Tough times here too…

The Shipbuilding sector will, in our view, move ahead but with colossal loses from the yards; they gambled and lost! Now they will beg for new orders. We fully support this as this will offer a lifeline to many owners and save the day for the yards too. Cheap but well built modern double-eco ships! Wonder who will pay the shipyards damages and loses in China, Korea and elsewhere… And how many will go behind the bars for the price scam and market manipulation…

From now until the end of February, expect to see many bankruptcies!

Despite the shrinkage due to the hostilities in the Middle East and in general in the Med and Black Sea regions, the Greek Archipelago, Western/Central North Med are still good destinations for the Cruise industry. Add Arctic and Antarctic…

As you all know by now, we are very tough on the markets and our predictions are based on facts and deep down analysis with info provided as Manna from Heavens…

The Geopolitical madness and from what we can observe from the Bratislava 27-strong European Union meeting, suggests of more troubles ahead…

Meantime: 

The MIGRANTS issue, which we have valued all along as the number one issue – not just for Europe but for the entire World, produced and produces more troubles for all involved in both sides in the equation, everywhere. Indeed we are all now focused on Europe, Greece and Italy in particular. Europe, as you read these lines, cannot agree to a common and coherent policy, be it a Union of six states or 28 (we include here the United Kingdom as still, technically let’s say belongs to the European Union).

On the BREXIT issue now: everything was seen in Bratislava’s informal gathering on how disintegrated the European Union becomes. Italy’s Renzi discovers for example hiccups due to Angela Merkel’s behaviour. Angela Merkel looks likely – according to the media, to loose grip and Wolfgang Schauble, the German Federal Minister of Finance might replace her… bad news for all in Europe, even on a world-wide basis.  Despite a common communique, the thorny issues of Workers Free Movement, the MIGRANTS and conversely the Terrorism issues, as well as the social cohesion and uprisings, then the debts with the banking sector in tatters… What a union! To this extent the United Kingdom has to protect its subjects to the best possible effect in all fronts!  The EU equally says it must also protect the EU citizens from the BREXIT… Tough! New leader for UKIP; MEP Diana James looks formidable enough to gain more. With basically the Conservatives ruling and Labour’s “absence” in the House of Commons, Diane James has a future, so does UKIP!

Greece and…GREXIT: Greece under the circumstances, which in a nutshell means: “all against all”, enters as we have stressed long before, but also as recent as yesterday, a very difficult period. None of the political parties has the support of even 25 centum of the electorate and as things stand now, only four parties can enter the Greek parliament given the 3 centum threshold needed. The Coalition Government, basically SYRIZA is in tatters and cannot deliver succumbing to both internal and external pressures and influences as PM Tsipras likes to remain in power and seems to be the Europeans preferred debt collector – pleasing Greece’s lenders and squeezing his own countrymen! The opposition too has to get its act together as, getting into power might be easy, but can they deliver? The media now believes – with the latest article widely spread and coming from the CITI, that GREXIT for one to three years cannot happen. We shall see… We can entertain CITI, its glitterati analysts et al anytime live on TV!!! Our warning: expect the unexpected to happen in Greece and its periphery in all fronts! Read our articles and views where our proposal for an ARISTOS team to run and govern Greece is a must, needless to say our proposed electoral system, catharses and reforms; end of the story.- We eagerly await the results of the coming Athex’s 11^th Road Show in London!

Energy: Energy means of any kind are going through a difficult time and we have to see the correlation between the producing countries, the countries amongst them that are engulfed by wars, or “civil” wars, social upturns and all that jazz… and the rest of the world. Pipelines are posing only geostrategic interests and loopholes; the so called “Pipelines of Peace” too are about to cause a wider war in the Caucuses, wider Middle East and other areas such as Northern Africa for example. Turkey struggles to maintain their presence in its current soil… The need of two Libyan states – West and East for the time being, is a must!

Climate Change too counts a lot in combination with the energy issues, and the losses in the high streets are more than evident now; seasonal garments for example are not being sold as they should due to the overheating of the planet particularly in the northern hemisphere!  Coupled also with the credit crunch that still happens to remain and the extended recession you have to imagine what else is yet to come. The fall-out of container trades from FEAST to Europe and elsewhere is an example of what happens…

The Syrian saga continues and the ceasefire only ceasefire cannot be called. Nearly 200 violations have already took place; you can check this! Monday Monday is approaching. Our feeling is that we are going to see far worse things happening in the region. The Turkish – Kurdish clashes too will dominate very soon the news.

Now, all these factors above increase the risk of Terrorism and we must be vigilant 24/7. ISIS, Daesh or whatever you can call it is more than a Terrorist organisation and West and East must finish them off here and now. The latest news which come to light and was, thank the Twelve Olympian Gods announced, when Nadia Murad, a Yazidi survivor who become a UN goodwill Ambassador, a Yazidi young woman who was group-raped as a spoil of war by these animals, yes they are animals, telling it all! We are sorry but we strongly believe that we must protect the borders of Europe before it is too late. We urge WISTA to get involved more on this issue as WISTAs seem to be the most powerful Women’s Group worldwide!

We must also ensure how properly we use the words MIGRANTS, Refugees, Asylum Seekers as, in Greece for example, many Greeks are or are trying to look sympathetic with the Migrants, Refugees and Asylum Seekers coming over to the Greek Islands in the Aegean Sea from the Anatolian Coast of Turkey. On some occasions parallelising these Migrants and their circumstances with those who come over to Greece from Minor Asia following the disaster there and the persecutions by the advancing Ottoman Turks in 1922 is totally wrong, as these “Refugees” were Greeks losing their homeland after 2,500 years! Some Charities too and NGO’s should stop the hype. We have extensively checked what really happens in two consecutive periods: May – August 2015 and 2016 whilst on the Island of Chios. And it is NOT just the photographic evidence; it goes beyond that! We have to mention though that Greeks were refugees in Syria and even indeed in Turkey, the wider Middle East region and Cyprus during World War Two – but this was only during the War and occupation to avoid the menace of the Occupant Forces, the Nazis in particular; end of the story. We must also repeat that the Greek State via its current politicians and government, was not ready to receive this influx of MIGRANTS despite the info in hand and warnings. Europe too played and plays a despicable role. Blackmail from Turkey too is too much to bear; the European Union and others are fully responsible for the Turkish pathetic staunch! Migrants have a dignity and same must be protected; the Greek people too, Europe too! Shame for the result until now!

Iran enters the markets slowly but steadily; a plus for peace. Saudi Arabia and in general the Arabian peninsula are faced with too many issues. Caution!

In Africa now: over a million fled from South Sudan and over 1,5 million are displaced there. Another Migrants and Humanitarian crisis. In South Africa there is a demand for low price internet! A very rightful demand! Dirty fuel from  Europe is sold in Africa; let’s see what the investigation will do!

The Oktoberfest in Germany will take place under tight security with the area fenced off to counter to any possible terrorist attack! The World’s biggest Beer Festival is under threat and we must saw zero tolerance! Germany and particularly its south region, like Belgium and France have been areas where Terrorists’ recent attacks has risen concerns for the security of the public and beyond. Caution!

In Pakistan a deadly terrorist suicider’s attack in a Mosque leaves 23 dead…

Typhoon Meranti leaves a mess in China. China is also getting a slowdown and one wonders what is next to come to the World’s second largest economy, or the bubble will burst!

Renhō Murata is the first woman to lead a party in Japan. Renhō as she’s widely known and called will soon call the shots if Abenomics fail…we shall see…

The Paralympics in Rio, in continuation to the Olympics and the banning of Russia is already producing tremors and wonder what will really happen when the evidence is produced for others who now play it cool. We hope that the World after Tokyo concludes that the Olympics and Paralympics take place permanently in Greece; the place of its birth and modern …rebirth in 1896! The benefits for Greece and the World at large will be greater than one can imagine!

Meantime ex-president Lula in Brazil rejects corruption and wrong doing charges, whilst in Mexico thousands protest against its president Enrique Pena Nieto for the way he tackles drugs, corruption and his meeting with Donald Trump!

…and for a change….: In Australia its Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull declares himself the happiest prime minister Australia ever had; he might not be the best, but… Australia is another business and development “battlefield”… and fierce competition has been noted between Chinese, Japanese, American and others…

Let’s see what the Russian election will produce over the weekend. It will be very interesting for many issues: Russia itself, the response of Ukraine and the West on Crimea…

As a last point in the European/Asian reporting, we left the issues of the Russian-Turkish odd relationship which creates another big mess in the region, as well as that on insisting  how to stop MIGRANTS. This is only achievable by an entire Naval Blockade of Northern Africa – starting from Libya and the entire Turkish Anatolian Coast. The Euros 100 plus million that Bulgaria demanded from the European Union to assist on its current  MIGRANTS issue there, tells it all.

On the other side of the Atlantic now, Hillary Clinton is on the plus points and percentage wise against Donald Trump. We are sure it’s gone be a very exciting battle to the very end!

The US department of Justice demands US$ 14 billion from Deutsche Bank for its behaviour before the financial crisis; the bank is unable to pay back any amount near to this figure; expect a bit of a mess…

There are a lot of financial scandals involving German entities worldwide, other nations companies also are involved and this is a very serious situation given for example the position Germany takes against Greece. As we have said and written in the past, there are skeletons in the cupboard, particularly in those at the household of Mrs Merkel; fairs fair!

This is a glimpse of a few of Planet Ocean’s issues… there are more,  but these are enough to confirm our view that the World is on fire! Take cover and work you risk assessment thoroughly. I am an optimist, but a pragmatist too!

We will come back soon on the New York Fashion Week as well as that of London!  Fashion is of paramount importance in Shipping to all intents and purposes; lunching of ships, events, receptions and annual dinners, yachting, you name it! Garments, jewelry, and other accessories complement the Maritime Dress Code!

Finally, do please remember that in Shipping all the above and other issues greatly influence its modus operandi and this affects both companies of any kind as well as seafarers. The Environment too and its future is at stake if not properly tackled!

As for the Holidays desires with the importance of Tourism and Maritime Tourism – for which over the last two years we have extensively proposed and covered a great number of places, we propose you to visit the islands of Astypalea, Chios, Gavdos, Paxoi, Spetses in Greece and Alaska, Bermuda, Capri, Isla de  Fuego in Argentina, and Panama. We will soon have some interesting reports; watch this space! By the way: don’t forget that the WTM 2016 is coming up in London 7 to 9 November 2016!

Have a nice weekend and enjoy the August Full Moon tonight, get geared for the weekend and pray for the dryness to return, as the rain was a bid odd this morning…in the United Kingdom…