Our forty-second weekly recapitulation of the markets, major changes in doing business, particularly shipfinance and world geopolitics affecting same, tonight Friday the 31st of October 2014 with John Faraclas of AllAboutShipping in Chester, come at a very crucial and tensed period when caution is the name of the game!
We have entered not just the worse period in world economic recession and upheavals, but also of major changes in the way we do business and this, coupled with unnecessary over-regulation will greatly affect the markets to all intents and purposes. Add the rise in extreme religious politics and see what you get…
The Markets in general are OKish despite the volatility and a bit of a few hiccups so be careful on how you interpret this last two weeks of euphoria…
The BDI closed up just 4 points since yesterday 30th of October – “recovering” the four points lost yesterday from last Wednesday and close at 1, 428 points which is also 236 points higher from last week’s closing at 1192 points! Still this is 819 points down from last December’s closing at 2, 247 points, in other words we lag behind a mere 36.48 centum! Of course this is a ten centum improvement since last week, but, be on guard!
The BCI closed up only 18 points since yesterday but 1, 130 since last week’s 2, 422 points. A more than a volatile sector!!!
The BPI was up 11 points since yesterday at 1, 233 points, which is a good 102 points plus since last weeks at 1, 121 points.
The BSI was up one point since yesterday at 892 points, which is eight points down since last week’s 900.-
The BHSI was down five points at 467 points, which is minus 22 points since last weeks 489 points.
So all in all the big sizes are up and the smaller ones down… Caution, caution caution!
The wets on the other hand where different: the dirty and its respective index, the BDTI was up 18 points since its last closing but 87 points up since last week’s 698 points! The cleans with the respective BCTI closed down 2 points at 743 points which is a plus 88 points. If the world met gets it right and the winter goes berserk then expect rich picking here.-
Caution in the way the lending system proceeds. The new lending will make the banks needing a major shake-up and more stress tests to these banks that might survive. Shadow Banking has already entered Shipping but more changes are on the way. It’s a good lesson though to any Banks for their arrogancy and messy practices. Nemesis has stricken harshly!
On the World Stage now:
The Ebola saga first as always with health issues–things are going from worse to worse; a very dangerous situation…
Ukraine: The Sunday elections results although look that the voters backed pro-western parties, it was a split vote with President Poroshenko and his Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk neck to neck at region 22 centum each and that’s from a turn-out of 52 centum…. The energy deal between Russia and Ukraine looks good for Europe and ensures all is well, but let’s hope Ukraine will afford to pay. We need to see this deal fully in order and guaranteed, otherwise… As we have said, I mean written: the end result counts!
The Middle East: The complications and dangers begin now! CAUTION! Caution in all fronts, as old scores aren’t yet settled. The role of Turkey should be cleared here and now.
Libya: Still under caution.
Europe: The Economic Crisis continues. All eyes down south to Greece. Mind me though all European States are in a big mess. Brexit becomes sometimes an issue which much be tactically confronted before it’s too late. Greece can produce a major political “earthquake” given the rhetoric of Syriza (opposition) and the “foreign” factor.All politicians in Grece should seat and pass exams; this is going to be the best and most important reform!
In the Far East the Hong Kong saga continues with the axing of Hong Kong tycoon James Tien for criticising HK’s Chief Executive CY Leung… Add the photo booth issue in trying to allocate protesters and see what you get there… Watch this space!
The two Capital Link events on the 4th Annual Shipping & Offshore CSR forum in London on the 4th of November, the New York event on the 1st of December on the 16th Annual Greek Investors Forum are coming. The Bornozis’ faithful promises a great debate!
Intermodal Europe 2014 on the 11-13 November in Rotterdam Ahoy is just ten days way…; the promising as always event!
The Bimco – Double Jeopardy. Trial by Media, Trial by Law – 3rd November 2014 in London’s Kings Palace Theatre is approaching…
The World Travel Market 2014 begins on Sunday 2 November and lasts until the 6th of November; thousands are expected there!
Cadwallader’s event by the London Shipping Law Centre is on the 25th of November is approaching; hope you managed to get a seat!
On another tone now…the nineteenth tip for the extended summer vacation is… Crete; es let’s go south! Here at Chester all is fine; you will see the report.
Lastly the race for the new Secretary-General for the IMO has begun. Expect major surprises !
Enjoy the weekend and have a great Halloween! You can log on here below to watch the live video: