John Faraclas’ weekly shipping market recap and the Referendum …puzzle-result message:
Agatha Christie would have loved it: “13 for luck”* and the BDI goes …above the 600 threshold -now reading 609 points! Ouf! What a week that was! For two consecutive days all indices are on the up! Overall 22 points plus since last week’s 587 points!
The Capers and the Panamaxes both on a plus …sweet sixteen points – a very much needed sweetener given what “occurred” overnight with the Referendum… the BCI 2014 and the BPI reading 913 and 585 points respectively! On a weekly basis, the Capers lost fourteen points (from 927) and the Panamaxes were up 39 – from 546 points! All eyes are now looking at Panama and the inauguration of the New Panama Canal this coming Sunday the 26th of June, one of the most important extentions and works of mankind. The omens are good, particularly for the Panamaxes and their improved versions, needless to say for other tonnage too. This new wider canal is also strengthening my argument that no cycle exists anymore; this is a big change following also the Suez Canal latest works. At best there is a new cycle, in the same way that after the Iron Curtain’s fall and a new World order appeared changing shipping in its foundations!**
The Supras and the Handies on an equally plus modus with plus six and seven points – now standing at 583 and 329 respectively! 28 and 18 points plus for both categories since last week’s 555 and 311 points; well …done!
The Wets followed suit with the last published BDTI and BCTI at 713 (plus three) and 442 (plus five) respectively! On a weekly basis though both indices …lost one and 33 points… oppppps (713 and 475 last Friday’s readings)…
Box-ships steady in the low side, all categories, despite another recession in the horizon and “new” trading agreements given the UK’s Referendum result… A very oxymoron situation yet to come; we shall see…
The price of WTI lost nearly four dollars, now close to US$ 47…
Most of the Stock Exchanges, particularly the five main ones lost substantial amounts, at least US$ 2 trillion plus (as our well-placed sources told us) thanks to the BREXIT…
Wonder the parity of newbuilding contracts… still maintaining the view that this is the best time to acquire tonnage; mind me one must know how to thrive amid chaos! Without newbuildings under the new technological improvements, we will witness a far worse situation. Having said all the above and standing-by all these years’ points and views one thing is important to remember: need to see the BDI above the 2, 000 points – at least…!
The Geopolitical front is greatly affected by the UK Referendum with the expected BREXIT (that we have been long ago predicting and explaining its hidden plus side and other parameters in our reporting) and it remains to be seen who will manage this Yellowstone mess… this lava which will continue to burn, flood and fume (mainly) – deadly …emissions everywhere, eh!!!! As always under such circumstances, expect incalculable repercussions in all fronts. Shipping though, grosso modo, will be fine! I can assure you that if this situation is properly administer by a powerful British administration can work out miracles. For the fall out, the responsibility rests with Germany, and in particular with France. The United Kingdom with its 1, 6 billion of Commonwealth people is the most powerful bloc, by far from all others. We already stressed this even before the Referendum in a special mentioning!
Now given the decision for an exodus of the United Kingdom from the messy and filthy Euro-union – thanks to the German-French axis, of the only liberal nation, the Greeks might now opt to get rid of the French state-run mess and the German corporatism and ask for a Referendum but this time with …two ballot papers!! Statehood and Corporatism are the biggest anathemas in economics and politics. The ultra -taxation and austerity, needless to say strangulation of many small countries coupled with intervention policies must by ousted – not just end! The new buzz word or better say buzz-catch phrase one hears over the last 24 hours is: Referendum here and now!
Obviously one cannot “ignore” the issue of avoiding a nation divided in two, with its capital favouring yet another Referendum, which Cameron has, cleverly and wisely, ruled out… Need to finish-off with this request too as Londoners will demand this sooner or later.
For sure Russia’s President Putin must be a very happy man with this result, as he was the only one, according to French News agencies, openly to express his view and dismay on what really Cameron was after… his intentions…
The Continent is on fire, the Mighty Continent is on tatters! “Well done” Mrs. Merkel. I am having a laugh with her followers and …lickers on wanting the Brits to get out here and now…
The Migrants issue as we have at all material times stressed as being the most important issue to all intents and purposes, did it and greatly influenced the result!!! The people of the United Kingdom cannot cope with this palaver – you can all still see what happens all over Europe, in Greece and Italy in particular where a GREXIT is still on the cards. ITALEXIT might be on the cards, not just for the north… Did I hear you say FREXIT?
Wonder what Agatha Christie, William Shakespeare and Plato would have… to say; all three in their own sphere of knowledge and sector! Murder?, A lost …love affair?, Sacrification of Democracy…? I wonder! As things stand one needs to have contingency plans in order, not just in place. This is a unique issue which might trigger even a warring situation… A very complicated case which even though those who have signed all relevant documents – Treaties, bilateral agreements, you name it, failed to foresee; or there was an expiration date…?
As for the Shipping Industry, London like it or not is Planet Ocean’s Administrative Capital. To begin with the IMO is just south of the River opposite the Mother of all Parliaments. Father Thames has been indeed a source of life for over 15 centuries! Now let me remind you that during last year’s LISW, Brussels were determined to work with the IMO; check it. Also do please search to see and please your eagerness that the Conservative government and the Industry launched the UK Maritime Growth Study which “…will ensure Britain continues its success of an industry that contributes over £11 (eleven) billion to the UK economy…” And now what? Don’t be naïve as the British will not give up, like the Greeks, to be masters of the Seven Oceans to all intents and purposes. In or out of Europe, London and its Square Mile has always called the shots!
Have a nice weekend and don’t contemplate, just think out of the box! The British Lion is alive and kicking; the British Maritime Sea Power flexes its muscles; the British Lions will never lose the shipping industry no matter what the Continent or the Far East’s designs are. The synergy with other maritime nations is to the fore! Crisis is a Crisis and Opportunities are Opportunities; you dead well know what I mean!
* “13 for luck”; A book by Agatha Christie.-
**Viewers will one day read herein a book relevant to all these happenings, a history of Shipping which I have witnessed for over six decades!