Daily Overview of Global Markets & the SEE Region (Wednesday, November 09, 2016)

Dr. Platon Monokroussos, Chief Market Economist, Deputy General Manager, Eurobank Ergasias S.A

HIGHLIGHTS

GLOBAL MARKETS: Defying most recent opinion polls, Republican candidate Donald Trump was elected to become the 45th US President. He managed to secure more than the 270 Electoral votes required after succeeding turning around a number of traditionally Democratic states and winning the bulk of the so-called swing states. Republicans have also retained the majority in Congress. The outcome of the November 8th US Presidential election triggered similar market reaction to that witnessed on the Brexit referendum earlier this year; risk-off mode prevailed boosting the safe-haven appeal of major government bonds. In FX markets, the USD came under pressure mainly against low yielding currencies such as EUR, JPY, CHF and GBP. On the flipside, the US currency gained some ground against commodity related currencies such as AUD, CAD and NZD.

GREECE: With respect to the Greek 3rd bailout programme and the ongoing 2nd review, according to Greek officials the roadmap for the short – term period ahead is reportedly as follows: a) agreement on a technical level at the November 28Euroworking group, b) political agreement on the successful completion of the 2nd review at the December 5 Eurogroup, c) implementation of the short-term debt relief measures, which the ESM is already working on and are expected to be presented at the next Eurogroup, d) inclusion of Greece into the ECB’s QE programme, and e) return to the wholesale funding markets sometime thereafter. According to a report published yesterday by the Eurobank Division of Economic Analysis, real GDP growth is forecast c. 0.2%/0.4% QoQ/YoY in Q3, while for the full year the growth reading lies between -0.3% and 0.0%.

CESEE MARKETS: Emerging market assets came under selling pressure earlier on Wednesday, after nominee of the Republican Party Donald Trump unexpectedly proved to be the winner of Presidential elections in the US.

Viewers can log herebelow and read the full report: Daily Overview November 9 2016