John Faraclas – picture by ecopack77
Thanks to the volatile Capes, the BDI begun the week on a positive note amid an alarming geopolitical environment given the Turkish despicable behaviour with the USA and others. John Faraclas’ brief market and geopolitics recap:
The BDI gained 18 points since last Friday and now stands at 1,709 points. All other indices either remained the same or clinched just a point to make our point valid, i.e: a very uncertain and perplexed dry market… were caution is the name of the game!
The Capes’ BCI went over and above the 3,500 points – now standing at 3,536 – 58 points plus since last Friday… Still a volatile index and we warn for caution…
The Panamaxes BPI seems to …end its fall as Friday’s figure remained the same, i.e.: 1,339 points.
One point plus for the BSI and BHSI respectively now standing at 1,040 and 543 points.
The Wets with mixed feelings; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 713 – minus four and 489 – plus 10 points respectively.
Meantime, VesselsValue’s Trade Analyst Adil Aliev has put together some data and commentary on the effects of US Sanctions on Iranian tanker exports:
Greek owners most likely to be affected by US Sanctions on Iran
A significant increase in trade volumes can be seen following on from the lifting of US sanctions in January 2016. A seasonal pattern can be observed in ton-mile exports post January 2016, with total volumes rising in the Autumn months in preparation for higher Winter demand. However, given the volatile nature of the Iran-US relations following on from president Donald Trump’s threats to amend and then kill the Iranian nuclear deal, it can be observed that there is a significant drop in total ton mile exports towards the end of 2017, below that of the same period in the previous year.
Within 2018, we can see that the seasonality pattern is not repeated and Iranian total ton-miles exports reach a peak by May 2018 in line with President Trump announcing his decision to cease the participation of the USA in the Iran deal and to begin re-imposing sanctions following a wind-down period. This may indicate the market is anticipating significant deterioration ahead, which falls in line with the ending of the 90 days grace period that expired on 6th August 2018 and the upcoming November deadline by which time US sanctions would apply to Iranian ports, shipping and energy sectors, as well as the provision of financial services, including insurance.
The largest export volumes from Iran have consistently been going to China, yet a significant drop off can be observed in December 2017, despite this Chinese imports rebounded thereafter and have been largely stable which falls in line with China’s declaration that it will ignore US sanctions and continue doing business with Iran.
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Greek owners still dominate exports, with 81 Greek tankers moving Iranian exports since 1st January 2018. Nonetheless the Iranian owner NITC supplies the most tonnage for Iranian exports for now, this is likely to drop off after the last grace period ends in early November this year. The draw of higher freight premiums for Iranian business appears to be quite attractive thus far, particularly in relation to more conventional voyages out of the Middle East. However, it remains to be seen how much risk appetite remains as the sanction regime picks up speed midway through the fourth quarter of this year.
On the Geopolitical front now: following a mini Black Friday given the escalation of US president Trump’s wrath against Turkey and its despicable leader Tayip Erdogan, a mini Black Monday today our long predicted WW3 is on and in all fronts – we will bring you an extensive analysis very soon.
The Migrants still on top of our agenda as the World’s number one issue and same will increase following the Turkish saga. Already not just Syrians, Iraqis, Pakistanis, Afghanis and others cross over to Greece, its Aegean Sea islands and conversely to Europe, but Turkish citizens too trying to avoid the non-stop pestering by president Erdogan. In Europe the divided Europeans who luck a coherent policy on the Migrants issue, one day will pay a hefty penalty as the social cohesion has been broken. As there are 20,000 ISIS fighters still at large in Syria and Iraq expect more Migrants. The Day After will be a punishment for all those, who as it has been proven, on purpose have ignored this issue. Add the deaths from drowning and see what you get. Similarly the North Africa region continues and more and more are trying the trip to Spain, Italy and Malta… Despicable and ahameful attitude by Brussels morons – we have to use this language to wake them and all of you from the dangers in the long run that Europe is facing from the Migrants saga. Already the “InterEuropean” migration is causing tremendous hardship for all…
The Wars in Syria and Iraq continue as well as in the entire Middle East with Iran and Saudi Arabia (all the Arabian peninsular in tatters…) also causing problems. Israel will defend its lands at all costs!
Turkey and its leader are playing with fire and president Trump is talking, as we say, business. At last the superpower recognises that Turkey and its leader are not trusted allies in NATO. The World Economy is going to suffer by an odd, bankrupt and despicable Turkey and at the end of the day its people will be harmed. We have long ago expressed our views on Turkey and its future. Despite what happened with the Turkish Lira, the Tariffs on steel and aluminium, the odd behaviour with Turkey flirting Russia, Turkish war planes intruded / violated 40 (forty) times today Greece’s and conversely Europe’s airspace. Add the incident with the Greek fishermen been attacked by Turkey’s “fishermen” – see special forces and agents and see what you get!
On the rest of the chaotic Geopolitics affecting all the Markets and other news will revert just before midnight; until then be on guard from any eventuality emanating from Pirates, Terrorists and Criminals whatsoever wherever you are on Planet Ocean.
