Daily Overview of Global Markets & the SEE Region (Monday, 1 July, 2019)
WORLD ECONOMIC & MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
GLOBAL MARKETS: At their meeting on the sidelines of the G20 meeting on Saturday in Osaka, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed on a truce in their trade war following mutual compromises. Trade talks will resume but no deadline was set for progress on a final deal. In reaction to the G20 meeting outcome, risk appetite increased. Meanwhile, fixed income assets weakened but losses were limited on the view that, although the G20 meeting outcome reduces for the time being some of the downside risks for the global economy, it is not enough to remove market uncertainty around trade policy. In FX markets, the so-called safe-haven currencies JPY and CHF weakened. On today’s calendar, the main releases are Germany’s June labor data and US June ISM manufacturing ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report.
GREECE: According to the latest poll (MRB for “TA NEA”, Saturday 29 June), opposition party New Democracy (ND) appears to be securing absolute majority under any scenario and irrespective of the number of parties that pass the 3% threshold to enter Parliament, with seats ranging from 155 to 163. On the economic data front, according to the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT), in April 2019 the overall volume index in retail trade decreased by 2.7%YoY while the seasonally adjusted overall volume index decreased by 3.8%MoM.
SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE
SERBIA: The EUR/RSD remained bound within a 117.80/90 – 117.87/97 trading range in the past week.
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