GLOBAL & REGIONAL MONTHLY (Thursday, 3 December 2020)
GLOBAL & REGIONAL MONTHLY (December 2020)
The Q3 GDP growth rebound has been robust and broad-based across countries around the world. The strong momentum seems to have been carried into the start of Q4, but the resurgence of Covid-19 cases and consequent containment measures are expected to weigh on economic activity in the remaining months of the quarter, albeit to a smaller degree than in the first pandemic wave in the spring.
Our view is consistent with the market’s consensus for a global economic recovery in 2021, helped by still-accommodative monetary policy and targeted fiscal support, as well as Covid-19 vaccinations. We expect GDP growth to rebound to 5.0% in 2021, after contracting by 3.8% in 2020.
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