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Macro Macchiato: Iron Ore Production Outlook to 2023

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Macro Macchiato: Iron Ore Production Outlook to 2023


Iron ore prices and consumption are both rising.  The main consumer of iron ore, China, has posted 6.5% GDP growth for 2020. China has also produced record-breaking quantities of steel as its break-neck development shows no sign of ending yet. In 2020 China broke through the one billion tonnes of steel production barrier with 105 Bn T of output.

Benchmark 62% Fe fines imported into China are selling in mid-January 2021 at USD 175 per tonne CFR. The all-time peak for iron ore prices was USD 191.7 in February 2011. Brazilian 65% Fe fines are selling in China for USD 195.3 a tonne, up nearly 80% year on year.

In 2020 China imported 1.17 Bn T of iron ore, beating its 2017 record of 1.08 Bn T.  Iron ore imports look set to rise again in 2021, driving up prices.

China is also attempting to diversify its sources of supply, importing more iron ore from ‘secondary’ suppliers beyond Australia and Brazil. This it was forced to do after the Brumadinho mining dam collapse in January 2019. The commercial sense of diversifying supplies became apparent.

Our new report Iron Ore Prodcution Estimates to 2023 reviews developments in Australia, Brazil, South Africa, India, Canada and Peru. We estimate the maximum that could be exported from each of these by the end of 2023 and we calculate the potential effect on shipping demand basis the most common ship sizes used to load cargoes in these countries and the most common destinations for those cargoes.

You can buy the report here for just £49 (plus VAT in the UK).

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