Developments and prospects in oil and gas markets in Europe
Global geopolitical risks versus region’s energy transition and security policies
EU sanctions and REPowerEU have fundamentally reconfigured Europe’s oil and gas supply structure, sharply reducing dependence on Russian energy
Supplier diversification, mainly in crude oil, has improved energy security but increased Europe’s exposure to LNG markets and geopolitical developments beyond its territory
The Iran war triggered a sharp rise in Brent and TTF prices, although oil-market oversupply, diversified crude sourcing and stock building in China helped limit the increase relative to 2022
EU gas markets have proven more vulnerable than oil markets, with low storage levels, LNG competition and the planned phase-out of Russian gas sustaining high TTF prices
The EU’s renewable energy transition will provide a growing buffer against energy shocks, but faster investment is needed to enhance energy security and reduce exposure to geopolitical risks
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