Adm (H.N) Ioannis (John) Pavlopoulos CEO of Sea Guardian – a leading provider of maritime security service, presentation at 2nd International Maritime Security Conference, took place on Wednesday 2nd April 2025 at the Eugenides Foundation, Athens.
Admiral Pavlopoulos spoke at the session 3a under the theme “Risks to Greek Maritime Industry“. The panel was moderated by Nigel Lowry, Athens Correspondent, Lloyd’s List Intelligence,
Here below is his presentation which includes well construed slides depicting the situation and facts during many decades…
“Ladies and Gentlemen, esteemed participants to the 2nd Maritime Security Conference; to begin with I would like to thank the President of the Propeller Club Port of Piraeus Costis Frangoulis for offering the floor to express my thoughts and concerns about the actual maritime threats and risks the Hellenic Maritime Industry is faced with. I feel quite happy to see among others, noble gentlemen which I fully respect; Professor Platias of the University of Piraeus, Professor Arvanitopoulos of Panteion University, Admiral (H.N. ret) Stelios Fenekos and many others that I had the honor to serve and cooperate with during my 44 years in the Hellenic Navy.
I have been asked by the moderator to set-up the strategic background before entering into the Q and A part, so I will start by saying that according to Sir Halford Mackinder’s theory published in 1904, we are all islanders (slide 1 above). To refresh your knowledge the World Island comprises the interlinked continents of North Africa, Asia and Europe, the so-called Afro-Eurasia continent. This was the largest, most populous and richest of all possible combinations. Whoever wants to control the “World Island” has to control the oceans and seas around it.
Mackinder has divided the world in three zones, the Heartland, the Rimland and the Periphery Islands, while Rimland plays the role of isolating Heartland from the surrounding seas and control the global commerce.
On the second slide (see same above) you can identify the 30 European NATO nations that control part of the Rimland, while only the USA and Canada are on the other side of the Atlantic. Just to highlight that Finland (2023) and Sweden (2024), joined the NATO Alliance following a fast-track procedure after the Russian invasion in Ukraine in February 2022.
On the 3rd slide you can see the present 27 members of the EU, as well as the official candidates, the recognized potential candidates and a former member of the EU (in red color). I would like to remind you that Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia are nominated as potential candidates both for NATO and the EU.
Having said that, we can easily understand that the Mackinder’s Theory is being materialized with the potential integration of Ukraine into the EU and NATO structures years ago, not forgetting to mention that Belarus was quite close in 2020 to change its strategic direction.
Now, I would like to refer to significant international events that occurred from 2004 till today, building the present security environment.
From November 2004 to January 2005 (slide 3) the Orange Revolution happened in Ukraine. Eight years later in November 2013 we had the Maidan Protest Movement in Ukraine having as result the withdrawal of President Yanukovych, that triggered the first Russia-Ukrainian war ending with the annexation of Crimea to Russia. A year later the Minsk agreements have been signed under the lead of France and Germany (February 2015), while in June 2017 Ukraine declared officially its intention to join NATO.
In August 2020 during the presidential elections in Belarus, there were huge demonstrations against the regime, that led to the imprisonment of thousands of protesters with Lukashenko finally prevailing, declaring loyalty to Russia and Putin, while in September 2020 the Ukrainian ministry of Defense issued the new Security Partnership with NATO.
In November 2020 the Democrats with Biden won the US elections against Donald Trump, who before handing over the Oval Office declared in January 2021 the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). In January, 20th, 2021 we had the inauguration of President Biden, who in February 2021 reversed Houthis designation as an FTO (slide 5 below).
Starting the build-up of the Russian military forces around Ukraine from spring 2021, in January 12, 2022 the first after a long time NATO – Russia Council (NRC) was organized in Brussels to discuss the situation in and around Ukraine, where all the Russian proposals to avoid the war have been rejected by all NATO member-states, which led to the Russian invasion of Ukraine (24, Feb 2022) and the war that lasts till today, more than three years.
In October 7, 2023 Hamas executed the attack against Israel in the south and the war in Gaza started, while the 19th October 2023 there was the first attack of the Houthis against Israel, triggering the Red Sea crisis that lasted, and is still ongoing, for 15 months from November 2023 to January 2025.
In November 2024 there were the US elections won by the Republicans under Donald Trump’s leadership. On 17 January 2025 the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was reached, confirmed by the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office shortly after midnight on 18 January local time, and went into effect on 19 January 2025, a day before the inauguration of the US President Donald Trump, who, two days later, in 22 January 2025 signed an executive order re-designating the Houthis as Foreign Terrorist Organization.
On 15th, March 2025 the US President ordered extensive airstrikes against Houthi infrastructure, military assets and leadership in Yemen, after Houthis have threatened to resume their attacks. That followed the collapse of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip.
Finally on 23 to 25th, March 2025, the new US Administration achieved the signing of the agreements with Russia and Ukraine at Riyad Saudi Arabia, to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.
On slide number 6 you can see in the yellow area how the wars in Ukraine – Black Sea – Gaza Strip – Red Sea are connected on an axis North to South or South to the North. This yellow area includes 4 out of 8 primary global maritime choke points and I name them from north to south, the Dardanelles – Sea of Marmara and Bosporus Straits (the Straits), the Suez Canal, the Straits of Bab el Mandeb and the Straits of Hormuz. This yellow area is the hotspot of the Planet today. This axis of war and turbulence has affected global commerce, that avoids transiting through the 4 choke points, preferring to sail around the African Continent by adding 12 to 14 more days, 4.600 nautical miles plus and increasing 10% of oil consumption by merchant vessels. The traffic in the Red Sea has been reduced by almost 70%, and the Houthis impose an embargo on the port of Eilat in the south of Israel.
Having depicted the elaboration of the security situation the last 20 years I hand over the floor to the moderator for the Q & A part of the session.“
Viewers can see here below the four questions by Nigel Lowry and the respective response to each one of them by Admiral Pavlopoulos:
1st QUESTION
Q: What should the international shipping industry be doing to address these increased risks? Is there a role for the IMO?
A: It is obvious that security risks exist in certain areas, as I depicted during my presentation. The axis starting from the Black Sea down to the Suez Channel and the Red Sea, through the straits of Bab-el-Mandeb was for the last 3 years the most dangerous areas, as the wars in Ukraine, the Gaza strip and the South Red Sea are still ongoing.
Dealing with maritime security issues almost on a daily base, it is of paramount importance prior to any voyage in those areas, to proceed with accurate Threat and Risk Assessment reports from credible providers, in order to identify the situation well in advance and issue adequate guidelines to the masters of the vessels. The crews should be prepared and maintain a high level of awareness while passing from the high-risk areas. Best management practices issued by the IMO have to be followed on any case.
On the other hand Shipping Companies should have credible Security Advisors from Private Maritime Security Companies, that will propose specific measures adapted to the current situations (i.e. different conditions in the Black Sea from the Straits of Bab El Mandeb), to mitigate threats and risks.
Concerning the second part of your question as the role of the IMO is to promote cooperation between governments in the regulation of shipping engaged in international trade and encourages the adoption of the highest practicable standards concerning maritime efficiency of navigation, my belief is that the establishment of a task group of qualified officials that are continuously examining the existing threats and risks is of a great importance. Issuing bulletins, guidelines and proposals for BMPs and alerts could assist to better mitigate the risks.
Finally I strongly believe that Masters of the vessels should increase their level of knowledge on maritime security threats and risks, while having tools of updated intelligence and information from institutions such as the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), UKMTO etc.
A Maritime Security course tailored made for Masters and 2nd in Command could be developed at the NATO Maritime Interdiction Operational Training Center based at Souda Bay Crete, after a request from the Hellenic Ministry of Maritime Affairs and a proposal from the relevant maritime associations. For sure this will be an added value for the professionalism of the Bridge Officers, being certified from such a prestigious Training Center that counts a life of 17 years.
2ND QUESTION
Q: Having in mind the recent (apparent) ceasefire agreement brokered by the US for the Black Sea, how to you assess the chances of normalizing usage of the India – Arabic Peninsula – Red Sea – Suez Canal route? What is required for all the tragic to return and will it happen any time soon?
A: First and foremost, we have to admit that TRUST for safe passages through those areas you mentioned, has been deeply traumatized the last months due to bad decisions taken or not taken, by the international community and states with a leading role on defence and security issues globally.
So, TRUST has to be restored. The efforts of the new US administration are heading to a better direction. It is a mixture of signed agreements between the US and the involved in conflict parties, as well as hard power actions such as pre-emptive attacks against Houthis’ infrastructure, military assets and mainly Leadership. And I count the Key-leaders engagement as a top priority. Look at the results Israel achieved in the operational field with the Hamas and Hezbollah leadership that changed radically the situation.
The policy of the new US administration highlights its determination and will to deal decisively with the threat targeting merchant shipping in the region in order to reaffirm the freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. In my opinion it was unacceptable for the maritime powers of the West to have let the Houthis disrupt the Sea line of communication for 15 consecutive months. They gave the time to the Houthis from February 2021 till November 2023 to be weaponized with Iranian drones and ballistic missiles attacking or confiscating vessels. As a result, the trade has been reduced up to 70% through the Red Sea and Suez Canal controlling 2 out of the 8 International Chock Points and imposing embargo against the port of Eilat (one out of 5 ports in Israel), and affecting the economy of Egypt.
When you find an open door, is either by chance, maybe by mistake, ot the worst, “let it open in purpose”.
The matter of returning the flow of merchant shipping through the region to its previous volume which is linked with the progression of US efforts will be determined over the next weeks or months. I cannot predict any normalization earlier than autumn 2025.
TRUST needs to be re-established and it will take long.
3RD QUESTION
Q: To complete this quick survey of what we can call the “hard risks” facing ships these days, how do you assess the risk to vessels transiting the Straits of Hormuz going forward?
A: For months this was the worst-case scenario that we were examining as SEA GUARDIAN. The most fragile period was just before the Presidential elections in Iran due to the loss in an air accident of the previous president.
It seemed that the presence of the 5th US Fleet in Bahrain and Arabic Golf played a deterrent role to any potential thought by Iran for establishing maritime control of the Straits of Hormuz.
The risk of attacks or incidents at the Hormuz Straits and the Persian Gulf for the time being is assessed LOW.
Nevertheless, the announcement and uncertainties arising from the re-activation of the “Maximum Pressure Campaign” towards Iran by the new US administration, could escalate tensions in the region and potentially lead to incidents impacting the maritime environment. The specific issue needs a close monitoring of the situation.
Another deterrent factor is the very important role the US has assigned the Saudi Arabia as a rock state in the region (Arabic Peninsula and the Middle East). The peace treaty negotiations with Ukraine and Russia that are constantly hosted at Riyad, indicates the above. Mohamed Bin Salman will play a leading role for the Arab and Muslim world, and at the end of the day, I could predict that he will sign the “Abraham Accords” with the Prime Minister of Israel.
In my opinion this will bring peace in the region in the long term and will permit the materialization of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor – IMEC
and
4rth QUESTION
Q: Do you see a “Trump effect” on the rules-based order of shipping, on the IMO’s authority, on the Panama Canal and other choke points? How will all these issues, unthinkable just a year ago, unfold?
A: Already Trump has demonstrated his resolve and determination to brake rules and taboos in matters of foreign policy (e.g. eviction of Zelensky from the White House, direct contact with Putin over the issue of Ukraine, aggressive posture against Iran and its proxies, Greenland etc.), as well as the world economy (trade sanctions).
He is driven by a “cooperate enthusiasm” when he implements his vision over numerous issues that, according to him, have an effect on promoting US.
He has a cooperate mindset that enables him to see beyond moral and rules restrictions and to focus on “mutual profitable arrangements” with US of course taking the lions share.
He has openly already defined his priorities and objectives:
– First to ensure freedom of movement for all US naval and air assets which promote and secure US interests and goals worldwide.
– Secondly to restore the Freedom of Navigation worldwide for the international merchant shipping that will benefit the shipping industry and the overall global trade and commerce.
– Third to eliminate or at least neutralize anyone that hampers US geopolitical goals.
Trump loves to negotiate by exaggerating verbally at the beginning, putting pressure to his interlocuter, and then is softening his posture in order to show that he is compromising.
The Conference was organised by the Council for International Relations-Greece, the Foreign Affairs Institute, in cooperation with the School of Maritime and Industrial Studies of the University of Piraeus, the Mackinder Forum and The Propeller Club Port of Piraeus.
