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Home HRCompany Profiles Market Report: central banks in focus, further UK cuts unlikely this year

Market Report: central banks in focus, further UK cuts unlikely this year

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  • London stocks flat at the open
  • UK labour market cools, but wage growth looks sticky
  • Unilever confirms permanent CFO
  • US markets rise into key Fed meeting
  • Gold notches fresh record high
  • Oil rises for third session in a row

Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown:

London stocks opened in a holding pattern, with investors scanning the horizon for a catalyst as central bank decisions loom large. With the Fed expected to cut and the Bank of England likely to stay put, traders are watching for cues that could shift sentiment. Meanwhile, UK-US tech and AI talks are drawing attention, as American giants pledge billions to support Britain’s ambitions in the sector – planting the early seeds for much-needed economic growth.

Signs of cooling are emerging in the UK labour market, but wage growth remains stubbornly high, still well above levels consistent with the Bank of England’s inflation target. The slight dip in pay growth and falling payrolls suggest momentum is easing, yet services inflation remains sticky, keeping rate cut hopes firmly on ice. With UK rates likely on hold as we move into 2026, markets may need to recalibrate expectations around the timing and pace of policy easing.

Unilever has confirmed Srinivas Phatak as permanent CFO, a move widely expected given his close working relationship with CEO Fernando Fernandez. The appointment further consolidates Fernandez’s influence, with several key leadership roles now held by long-time allies, an important step as he seeks to drive cultural and strategic change across the business. With deep operational experience in high-growth markets, Phatak’s promotion signals continuity and alignment at the top, which should support execution of the new CEO’s agenda.

US equities held firm ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at fresh highs despite a muted session. A 25bp rate cut is fully priced in, but investor focus will be squarely on the Fed’s forward guidance, particularly the dot plot and Powell’s tone, which could shape expectations for the pace of easing.

Gold has reached yet another record high as a weaker dollar and growing conviction around Fed rate cuts fuel demand for real assets. With inflation still simmering and central banks pivoting toward easing, investors are increasingly faced with a simple choice: ride the wave of asset inflation or stick with cash and risk being left behind.

Oil prices extended gains for a third straight session as Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure sparked renewed supply concerns. The EU is reportedly weighing sanctions on firms in India and China facilitating Russian oil flows, while President Trump signalled readiness for major sanctions if Europe follows suit. Tensions in the Middle East and expectations of a Fed rate cut are also supporting bullish sentiment.

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