- FTSE 100 opens flat.
- Whitbread shares rally on positive update.
- US stock futures unmoved after record close.
- American bank earnings in focus as Trump targets credit card rates.
- Brent Crude at $64 as net closes in on Iranian exports.
- Persimmon – building momentum into 2026.
Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown:
“Equity markets are continuing to thrive in 2026 in the face of mounting geopolitical tension. After a tentative open, the FTSE remains just a hair’s breadth from its all-time best. Mining stocks have been the key driver of the uplift so far in January, but today UK Plc is back under the microscope, with updates from housebuilder Persimmon and Premier Inn owner Whitbread.
Whitbread’s shares have been under pressure, with investors questioning the company’s ability to absorb the impact of business rate rises following Rachel Reeves’ November Budget. Larger premises, such as Premier Inn’s hotels, have been the hardest hit. Today’s Q3 statement should provide some relief for investors, with demand accelerating in both the core UK and fledgling German operations. The shares were up 5% in early trading. On the cost side, the group’s estimate of the next financial year’s business rate impact has been reduced below the previous range of £40-£50mn to £35mn, and the group is now set to drive greater-than-planned cost efficiencies this year. It’s also playing its part in the growing clamour by the hospitality industry for more supportive government policy. Whether this is enough to keep activist shareholder Corvax happy remains to be seen.
Despite a poor day for financials, US stocks managed to close out at another record high. Futures are pointing to an uneventful open after the bell rings on Wall Street. Donald Trump’s efforts to force a more doveish hand from the Fed have so far proved ineffective. His quest for looser monetary conditions has now brought US credit card lending rates into the crossfire sending a shudder through the sector. Most of the big US banks report this week, with J P Morgan in focus today. A revival in Investment Banking activity should provide support for a decent outcome but the key focus is likely to be Jamie Dimon’s outlook for net interest income and the broader economy in 2026.
Brent crude is holding onto recent gains as it hovers just above $64. The threat from the White House of a 25% tariff on any country that does business with Iran coupled with the potential for military action has raised concerns about the supply outlook from the world’s fifth largest producer.”
Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown:
“Housebuilder Persimmon came out of the gates swinging by delivering a 2025 performance ahead of market expectations. Net private sales rates were in line with the prior year, despite a softening market ahead of the UK Budget in November. But both the order book and average selling prices were trending higher. That’s in part due to Persimmon’s houses being priced around 15% below the newbuild national average, offering some resilience to the current market challenges. As a result, full-year underlying pre-tax profits are now expected to land at the top end of current market expectations, which currently stand at £415-440mn.
Looking ahead, buyer affordability will remain a key challenge for Persimmon to wrestle with in the new year. The market’s currently pricing in two rate cuts by the end of 2026, which should help buoy buyers’ purchasing power slightly. Persimmon expects cost inflation to remain at a manageable level, helped by its in-house materials business, which provides quicker and cheaper access to key materials, shaving off around £5,000 worth of costs. With its valuation sitting well below the long-run average, Persimmon offers an attractive way to play the UK housing market, and there’s a prospective dividend yield of 4.7% on offer to reward potential investors for their patience.”
