- Global markets rebound after oil price swings
- US stocks flip positive late in the session
- Oil prices remain elevated, but levers could help limit the supply shock
- UK retail sales broadly flat for February
- Persimmon builds momentum in a difficult market
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown:
“Global equity markets are still taking their cues from oil this morning – but the tone has notably improved after yesterday’s wild swings. What initially looked like a one-way surge in energy costs and the inflation headaches that come with it has started to stabilise, offering some much-needed breathing room. UK futures suggest the FTSE 100 is set to reflect that steadier backdrop with a positive open this morning.
Investors are still grappling with an uncertain timeline, with oil prices serving as something of a live progress bar for how long this conflict will persist. But the dilemma between the drag of elevated energy costs and the fear of missing a relief rally tipped toward the latter into the US close. A message from President Trump suggesting the conflict could end soon sparked a sharp late-session rebound, flipping what had been a broadly negative landscape on its head.
Oil prices in the 80s/90s are still a tricky backdrop, but it’s significantly better than pushing toward 150, which had been a fear at points yesterday. Investors should also take some comfort from the growing list of potential measures at the White House’s disposal. President Trump has options, like waiving oil-related sanctions and having the US Navy escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz to keep supply flowing and prices in check. G7 finance ministers have also said the group stands ready to release oil from strategic reserves if necessary. It’s too early to call an end to the volatility, but having levers to pull should help calm some nerves.
UK retail sales painted a fairly flat picture for February, with the latest BRC data describing it as a decidedly “grey” month for the high street. Total sales rose just 1.1%, driven largely by food inflation (+2.9%), while non-food slipped back by 0.4% with both in-store (+0.2%) and online (-1.3%) channels struggling to gain momentum. February is typically a quieter trading period, but from March, investors will be watching closely for the first signs of how the conflict in the Middle East begins to filter through into consumer behaviour and discretionary spending.”
Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown:
“Persimmon continues to build momentum in 2025, with a performance that stood head and shoulders above most of its peers. Net private sales rates were in line with the prior year, despite a softening market ahead of the UK Budget in November. But an increase in sales outlets, home completions, and average selling prices all helped drive revenue growth of 17%. In part, Persimmon’s resilient performance in the face of current market challenges has been helped by its houses being priced around 15% below the newbuild national average, offering a more accessible price point to buyers struggling with affordability issues.
With its valuation sitting well below the long-run average, Persimmon offers an attractive way to play the UK housing market, and it remains our top pick in the sector. But bear in mind, the ongoing war in Iran and subsequent rise in oil prices have already made rate cuts less likely this year. That’s not helping buyer affordability, and it could be a while before external headwinds shift. In the meantime, Persimmon continues to run a tight ship, and there’s a prospective dividend yield of 5.5% on offer to reward potential investors for their patience.”
