643John (Ioannis) Pavlopoulos, President Sea Guardian SG Ltd., Vice Admiral (ret.) H.N., Honorary Commander in Chief of the Hellenic Fleet , Former Military Representative of Greece to the NATO and EU
Brief Update No 25/16 Date: 31 July 2025
STATEMENT
This document has been approved for distribution by Sea Guardian S.G Ltd / Operations Department. The provided Intel and Information derive from open sources, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) and United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), respective Web Pages and products retrofit the company’s Strategic / Operational and Security situational awareness processes for risks and threat assessment/impact to the Security of Maritime operations. All rights reserved, “no part of this Risk assessment may be reproduced in an form (electronical, mechanical, paper or other means) without written permission by Sea Guardian SG Ltd” which maintain the rights for personal data of this document writers. Under no Circumstances can Sea Guardian SG Ltd be held responsible for any loss or damage caused by a reader’s reliance on information obtained by this Assessment, especially on its firms, company’s management or individual decision-making.
To provide in a 15-day cycle, the maritime industry and Security Stakeholders or Shareholders with:
Major maritime security incident summary and analysis in Geo-strategic frame for Operational Security and Security of shipping for the period 10 – 28 July, 2025.
Threat assessment updates concerning military operations – terrorism – piracy and also cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways, ships fired and crew loses.
Overview of risk assessment and relevant information, in order to support operational planning and decision as well as the needs for assuredness (impact for insurance or Special security needs) after threats and risks Analysis.
SEA GUARDIAN, pursues innovative approach by analyzing the Maritime Security in accordance with international standards and a certain frame of Geo-policy. Security assessment deals not only with the risks but also with the threats, as well as international security gaps, in order to maintain our clients well informed.
RECENT KEY DEVELOPMENTS
On July 10, US President Donald Trump began a three-day summit in Washington DC with the leaders of five African states, an event the White House sees as an “incredible” commercial opportunity. Trump’s guests include the leaders of Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania and Senegal – all countries with small populations and economies. The meetings were expected to concentrate on Trump’s “trade, not aid” policy and with all of them facing 10% tariffs on goods exported to the US. The African leaders were hoping to negotiate this rate down.
On July 10, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has called for an immediate de-escalation and an end to military mobilizations in the capital, Tripoli, and its surrounding areas. In a statement released Wednesday evening, the mission expressed concern over persistent reports of troop build-ups and warned of the risk of renewed clashes. UNSMIL urged all parties to refrain from the use of force, particularly in densely populated areas, and to avoid any actions or rhetoric that could escalate tensions. The mission also called for the immediate withdrawal of forces recently deployed in Tripoli.
On July 10, it is stated that a sharp rise in piracy and armed robbery incidents in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore has raised concern within the maritime community, despite the majority of cases being of low severity. According to the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia (ReCAAP) Information Sharing Centre’s (ISC) half-yearly report released on July 10, 80 incidents were recorded between January and June 2025. This figure is nearly four times the 21 incidents reported in the same period in 2024
On July 11, a senior International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor has concluded that there are “reasonable grounds to believe that war crimes and crimes against humanity” are being committed in war-ravaged Sudan’s western Darfur region. ICC Deputy Prosecutor Nazhat Shameem Khan presented to the United Nations Security Council her assessment on the devastating conflict raged since 2023, which has killed more than 40,000 people and 13 million others, displaced.
On July 13, Iran’s foreign minister said that his country would accept a resumption of nuclear talks with the US if there were assurances of no more attacks against it, state media reported. Abbas Araghchi said in a speech to Tehran-based foreign diplomats that Iran has always been ready and will be ready in the future for talks about its nuclear program, but, “assurance should be provided that in case of a resumption of talks, the trend will not lead to war.”
On July 13, Kuwait’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior, Sheikh Fahad Yusuf Saud Al-Sabah, arrived in Lebanon on Sunday afternoon, leading a delegation of security and administrative officials on an official visit. He was welcomed at Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport by Lebanese Minister of Interior and Municipalities Ahmad Al-Hajjar. The two ministers held a bilateral meeting in the airport’s VIP lounge, during which they emphasized the importance of enhancing cooperation between their respective ministries
On July 14, yet another major escalation of violence gripped the Sudanese region of Darfur over the weekend, with a battle over the besieged city of El Fasher. This is the first time that the RSF fighters have entered the city since the battle began 15 months ago. The following days the military was successful in pushing the RSF further out of the city in a violent retaliation that led to shooting and shelling in the city’s residential areas.
On July 15, Israel says it has bombed Syrian government forces around Suweida, as they entered the predominantly Druze city following two days of deadly sectarian clashes. Benjamin Netanyahu said he was committed to preventing harm to the Druze in Syria because of their deep ties to those living in Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. This is the first time that Syrian government forces have been deployed to Suweida since Islamist-led rebels overthrew President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.
On July 15, Al-Shabab insurgents have seized the town of Tardo in Somalia’s central Hiiran region, according to a military official. Tardo is a key crossroads between larger urban centres. The town fell on Sunday after Al-Shabab combatants drove out government-allied clan fighters, Major Mohamed Abdullahi told Reuters.
On July 15, the European Council said in a statement it had imposed sanctions on eight people and one entity from Iran over “serious human rights violations” and “transnational repression.” The statement said they are responsible for abuses on behalf of Iranian state bodies outside of Iran, in particular extrajudicial, summary and arbitrary executions and killings, as well as enforced disappearances of people deemed to be opponents of or critical of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
On July 16, it was stated that Greece ranks fourth among EMEA emerging markets most exposed to U.S. tariffs. Greece is ranked fourth among emerging countries in the EMEA region (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) expected to be most affected by U.S. tariffs, following Hungary—which is projected to suffer the strongest impact—as well as the Czech Republic and Poland. The pharmaceutical and food industries are seen mostly affected by the tariffs. Although Greece is not heavily reliant on the U.S. as a trade partner, such an increase in tariffs could potentially lead to reduced exports, according to the analysis.
On July 16, US CENTRAL COMMAND announced, congratulations to the Yemeni National Resistance Forces (NRF), led by Gen. Tareq Saleh, for the largest seizure of Iranian advanced conventional weapons in their history. The NRF intercepted and seized over 750 tons of munitions and hardware to include hundreds of advanced cruise, anti-ship, and anti-aircraft missiles, warheads and seekers, components as well as hundreds of drone engines, air defense equipment, radar systems, and communications equipment. According to the NRF, there were manuals in Farsi and many of the systems were manufactured by a company affiliated with the Iranian Ministry of Defense, sanctioned by the United States. The illegal shipment was intended for use by the Iranian-backed Houthis.
On July 18, Seaguardian having had finished the first cycle of actions for personnel recovery of its Security team onboard the sunk cargo ship ETERNITY C in the Red Sea, after several attacks with ballistic missile, unmanned vehicles and rockets from speedboats with armed Houthi rebels onboard, released this classified level information for “public eyes” through this current assessment. Personnel recovery has been achieved in direct cooperation with the shipping company as the primary actor and its stakeholders/shareholders, having saved 17 crew members and 3 SEA GUARDIAN armed guards. Details of the attack having been gathered by the crew and the SEA GUARDIAN Security team will be released in coordination with the shipping company in due time.
On July 19, Syria and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, US Ambassador to Turkiye, Tom Barrack, has announced, drawing an uneasy truce between the neighbors after days of air strikes and sectarian bloodshed in Syria’s southwestern Suwayda region. Barrack said in a post on X early on Saturday that the ceasefire between Syria and Israel was “supported” by Washington and “embraced” by Turkiye, Jordan and Syria’s neighbors.
On July 20, the city of Suwayda in southern Syria witnessed on Sunday relative calm, following intense clashes on its western outskirts between Bedouin tribal militants and Druze armed groups. Forces of the Syrian transitional government have established several checkpoints along the road from the town of al-Mazraa to the entrance of Suwayda, the correspondent added. However, local sources told North Press that some violations of the ceasefire agreement have been observed. The tension was further intensified by Israeli airstrikes targeting government forces in Suwayda, Daraa, and the capital Damascus. In response to the growing crisis, the Syrian Presidency announced a comprehensive and immediate ceasefire.
On July 20, the Ministry of Oil and Gas, in Libya, stated on its Facebook page that the meeting held with the US side addressed the follow-up on the outcomes during the economic meetings in Washington last April, and the practical steps required to activate mechanisms for joint cooperation in the fields of energy, investment, and trade.
On July 21, Israel Defense Forces confirmed a new attack on the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah, two weeks after its previous assault on the port’s facilities. The Israelis said they will continue to target the port, which is being used to offload arms shipments from Iran, in an effort to prevent any rebuilding of the facilities. The Times of Israel is reporting for the first time that IDF used long-range drones for the assault, which says was the thirteenth time Israel has attacked Houthi positions. Previous attacks were staged using fighter jets supported by spy planes and refueling air tankers. According to the IDF statement, the targets of the latest strikes included engineering vehicles, fuel containers, naval vessels, and Iranian smuggled weapons.
On July 22, it is stated that tensions in the Horn of Africa have risen sharply this month, with top leaders in Ethiopia, Eritrea, and the Tigray region all warning that a return to conflict may be imminent in an area barely recovering from one of this century’s most destructive wars. In an interview on July 19, Isaias Afwerki, Eritrea’s president, accused Ethiopia of making “unbalanced statements” and preparing to wage war on Eritrea, describing Ethiopia’s drive to secure access to a port on the Red Sea as “the plan of a crazy person” and part of a plot masterminded by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to destabilize and dominate the Horn of Africa.
On July 23, the United Nations’ World Food Programme last week conducted humanitarian air drops in South Sudan as the country, less than two decades old, faces surging conflict while global assistance programs are roiled in a financial crisis and more than 2 million of the nation’s children are at risk of malnutrition. The civil war in neighboring Sudan has displaced 1 million refugees who have flowed into the Upper Nile of South Sudan, where the WFP said it targeted its airdrops, beeing the only way to reach the area.
On July 24, Iran has reaffirmed its right to enrich uranium on the eve of a key meeting with European powers threatening to reimpose nuclear sanctions. The meeting was set to take place in Istanbul July 25, bringing Iranian officials together with officials from Britain, France and Germany – known as the E3 nations – including the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas. It was the first since Israel’s mid-June attack targeting key Iranian nuclear and military sites led to a 12-day war that ended in a ceasefire on June 24.
On July 24, it is stated that a new constitution that has allowed Togo’s long-time head of state Faure Gnassingbé to shift to a new role as all-powerful prime minister – and escape the constraint of presidential term limits – has triggered anger on the streets of the capital, Lomé. While protests were set to continue their actions, at least five demonstrators have died while confronting official security forces last weeks.
On July 24, Syria and Saudi Arabia have signed dozens of investment agreements aimed at revitalizing Syria’s war-torn economy. The deals, announced at the Syrian-Saudi Investment Forum, cover a broad range of sectors including real estate, telecommunications, and finance. The agreements mark a significant step in Syria’s efforts to rebuild after more than a decade of conflict. Saudi Investment Minister Khalid al-Falih said the forum would see the signing of 47 agreements and memoranda of understanding, with a total estimated value of around 24 billion Saudi Riyals, or approximately 6.4 billion US dollars.
On July 24, U.S. envoy Tom Barrack reaffirmed Washington’s firm stance on Hezbollah during a recent visit to Beirut, underscoring that the issue of the group’s weapons remains a Lebanese responsibility. “Hezbollah is an issue that must be resolved by the Lebanese themselves,” Barrack said in a statement, reiterating that the United States believes Hezbollah poses a challenge that only Lebanon’s government can confront.
On July 25 the Greek Minister, Kikilias pointed out that “the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Insular Policy supports announced a common effort of public and private sector, by deploying an open seas tug boat in the Red Sea. Following the initiative of the Hellenic Association of Shipowners of Tugs – Salvage – Anti-pollution Vessels for Offshore Support, in collaboration with the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and given the critical situation prevailing in the Red Sea since early July 2025, will be sent to the region in order to assist in cases of maritime accidents, to protect human life and the environment as well as to help global shipping suffering from terrorist attacks.
On July 25, United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said Washington “strongly rejects” French President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to recognize a Palestinian state, as the administration of President Donald Trump announced it would not attend an upcoming United Nations conference seeking a two-state solution for Palestinians. Posting on X later, Rubio criticized Macron’s “reckless decision”, which he said “only serves Hamas propaganda and sets back peace”.
On July 25, Saudi Arabia has welcomed a statement by French Emmanuel Macron that his country would recognize a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly in September. “True to its historic commitment to a just and lasting peace in the Middle East, I have decided that France will recognize the State of Palestine,” Macron wrote on social media on Thursday evening.
On July 25, US President Donald Trump sent a message that after the collapse of Gaza ceasefire negotiations and the hostage deal, he believes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should escalate the war in order to “get rid of” Hamas.
On July 26, a Sudanese coalition led by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group has announced it is establishing an alternative government in a challenge to the military-led authorities in the capital Khartoum, with the northeastern African country’s brutal civil war in its third year. The group, which calls itself the Leadership Council of the Sudan Founding Alliance (TASIS), said RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, will chair the 15-member presidential council of the government, which includes regional governors.
On July 27, Israel’s military says it will open humanitarian corridors to allow aid convoys into the Gaza Strip, after weeks of mounting international pressure and warnings of starvation. In a statement the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) also announced what it called a “local tactical pause in military activity” for humanitarian purposes in three areas. It came after Israel said it made an airdrop of aid into Gaza of “seven packages of aid containing flour, sugar and canned food”.
On July 27, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) has signed four memoranda of understanding with the Algerian Sonatrach to enhance cooperation in the fields of geophysical exploration, well services, laboratory analysis, training, and knowledge transfer. The agreements included cooperation between the two parties’ subsidiaries, including the Libyan companies NAGECO and JOT, and the Algerian companies ENAGEO and ENSP, in addition to the Petroleum Research Center and Sonatrach/Laboratory Department. This step comes within the framework of supporting the strategic partnership between Libya and Algeria in the oil and gas sector, according to a statement published by the Libyan NOC.
On July 27, it was stated that on Tuesday, the U.S. State Department confirmed the killing of an American citizen during the recent wave of violence in Suwayda Syria, which erupted in mid-July. This confirmation came after disturbing reports and graphic videos surfaced showing a mass execution, including that of Saraya and seven of his Druze relatives.
Political / Strategic-Operational Intel/Info collection “app’s chart snap”
SEA GUARDIAN have planned and organized the areas / domains of interest on which focusing to collect info/intel registering in a database under the criterion of them contributing to its Security Assessment, maintaining near-real time intel/info picture for the intermediate period between the publishing of successive SEA GUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT of which a snap of the “app” chart it is shown below and could be provided as a near-real time service by request.
THE GEOPOLITICAL PROFILES & INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
Geo-political / Geo-Strategic profile:As it has been stated and analyzed in the SEAGUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/15, JULY 10. There are no significant changes in the Geostrategic environment compared to those described in there.
Geopolitical / Geo-economic Profile: As it has been stated and analyzed in the SEAGUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/15, JULY 10. There are no significant changes in the Geo-economic environment compared to what is described in there. Nevertheless, we highlight again that the US will continue to follow the previous months announced trend of imposing tariffs and Greece is in the fourth position of significance in EMEA (Europe-Middle East-Africa) exposed to the trade with US which is a factor threaten at the most the SME’s (small and medium-sized enterprises), with the date of imposing be August 01. Even if this trend of tariffs imposing does not aim to change geo-economic borderlines, it enhances the dense of controlling economies so much as to take them under close domination, while in the Asia-Pacific after the agreement with Japan on July 22, its priorities have been met.
International Security / Strategic sector: There are no significant changes in the Geo-economic environment compared to what was described in SEAGUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/15, JULY 10. US will continue to play the rule of mediator and in every situation which could create a threat to International Security normality as it has planned to implement.
Global Maritime Security profile: As it has been highlighted in SEAGUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/15, JULY 10, traditional threats to Shipping are re-emerging but have an new “asymmetric profile”. They should be addressed with a new approach and by implementing security measures and control trends. It is noted that there are several ports, which while typically located in countries without a high level of risk, situation may propose the presence of a security team during port calls. In addition, the Cyber-threat and electronic harassment should not be underestimated. Western Maritime Industry society ought to realize that the threats / risks nature concerns at the most its ships but not ships from China for example, while the Western Maritime security has developed its capabilities and standards for facing up the real level of threat.
UKMTO received information, believed to be from the master of the Comoros flagged M/V MERINOS LIVESTOCK (IMO 7504122), reporting that the ship was approached and challenged by a single small craft. The information received also includes a report of gunfire. The vessel has been ordered to reverse course towards Yemen.
SEA GUARDIAN set Libya-Central Mediterranean as a new thematic for permanent close monitoring by the end of May so that, the SEAGUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/13, June 13 has fully stated and analyzed the internal situation in the country as well as gaps that could create threats and risks influencing the maritime activities in ports and in the gulf of Sirte / Libya.
With the assessment SEGUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/14, June 25, the dimension of the threats/risks emanating from the internal instability of the country that could affect international community, were listed.
In the period between the issuance of SEGUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/15, July 10 and drafting the present document, it is apparent that the current hot spots are the municipal elections, the rise in domestic crime, the threat of further isolation of the cities where their governments are based, and the movement of Libyans to European countries suspected of war crimes. In addition to the economic uncertainties described in the previous security assessment, it should also be noted the large fall of the dinar against the dollar, in the context of the possible activation of an agreement that was signed with the US in April of this year.
The government in Tripoli through the signing of MoUs with Algeria tries to establish international relations with neighboring countries and powering its position in the vicinity.
Triggers that will influence the escalation or de-escalation of the threat are: conflicts on the borders with Sudan, internal conflicts of military and militias, the control of ports, control of inflation, derailment of current transactions and fidelity of banknotes. For the risks see below in the risk assessment section of this report.
Threat assessment due to “military actions” is maintained MEDIUM.
Syria
As it has been stated and analyzed in the SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/15, July 10, President Al-Shara doesn’t have in his plan to confront Israel, especially in military and evacuation actions.
Even if the International Community remains politically, strategically and economically on the side of the Interim Government following the US initiative, it is estimated that there is some time margin for waiting in their plan and certainly alternative plans, up to the point of replacing the interim government with another government structure. The difference with the case of the failed state of Libya in relation to Syria lies in its location, which has a different footprint on the Geo-strategic map.
At the level of returning economic activity to normality, there is currently a major obstacle due to the fact that the Alawites and Druze of Western Syria are not included in the military or political system, resulting in no financial connection to its budget. On the other hand the central government does not seem to control the Mediterranean coast, which are the main points of commercial activity from any development that may arise.
It came up that atrocity has been taken place during the attack on the Druzes area of Suwayda on July 18, which could contained in the list of Interim government negatives as it was reported that the militias had signs of ISIS on formal military uniforms. It is estimated that the situation is far from stabilization and normality.
Triggers that will influence the escalation or de-escalation of the threat are: avoidance of conflict with Israel, political integration of those who have been left out of the military integration plan (e.g. Alawites and a portion of the Druzes), distribution of international aid and loans, course of reopening industrial activity (e.g. textile industry), and finally security in the main ports (Latakia and Tartus).
The threat assessment due to “military actions” returns to MEDIUM.
Lebanon
The situation in Lebanon seems to be normalized due to the fact that Israel has not recently launched any extensive operation against Hezbollah, but the later has not reacted to the Israeli offensive operations at the beginning of last month.It is estimated that the Lebanese government will seek the existence of an international presence in the region and in particular UNIFIL, requesting an extension of its presence from the UN. Its aim, at least officially, is the stabilization of the sensitive areas in the south of the country bordering Israel. However, the most important trigger for further decline will be the progress of the disarmament processes of the Palestinian enclaves on its territory, for which it has committed itself to Israel.
It is also estimated that Iran will not revert to supporting Hezbollah in the medium term, especially as long as the international community is negative about its actions to develop nuclear power. Nevertheless, any sudden escalation cannot be ruled out, even if we are in a period where there is a concerted effort to alleviate tensions. There is generally a decline in tensions and a downgrading of the threat.
The threat assessment due to “military actions” is downgraded to LOW.
Gaza-Israel
As it has been stated in the SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/15, July 10, Israel will continue to support its mission without carrying out offending operations but with hard reactions to any operation against its interests.
Although the problems in the distribution of humanitarian aid continue to exist and intensify, there have been recent reports from armed Palestinian groups that they have no connection with Hamas, nor are they funded by Israel or any opponent of Hamas, and that their sole purpose is to protect their own population. The tension in the region is not easy to reduce, while the collateral losses in attacks by the ISF against Hamas targets are accumulating energy for reactions.
Any peace plan cannot be uncoupled from the existence of Hamas for the time being. The US proposal to take control of Gaza and/or relocate Palestinians remains alive, with Israel continuing to state that such a situation is not in its sights.
The temporary “ceasefire” by Israel in Gaza strip to permit Humanitarian aid being shared to Palestinians is an opportunity of the alleviation of tense in the strip. It is estimated that this window of ceasefire will not maintain for a long period as the possible actions of Hamas will influence it.
A special permit continues to be required to approach ports in the Gaza Strip or Israel.
The threat assessment due to “military actions” is MEDIUM.
The threat of side-effect from the dense of military operations produces risk levels of the overall risk of incidents as “MEDIUM” which is analyzed in the following: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “NSR” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” is considered as “MEDIUM” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “NSR” (Nothing Serious to Report).
Sudan-Eritrea–Ethiopia
As it has been stated and analyzed in the SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/15, July 10, the possibility of instability expansion and proliferation of aggressivity exists, creating an uncertainty of security normality which could affect the whole area and possibly detonating a new cycle of clashes.
Darfur is constantly a terrain of conflicts among several groups, but mainly between the state’s army and revolutionary groups consisted by certain militia and civilian groups. The UN international prosecutor recently issued a report in which he accuses several of war crimes in Western Darfur, while the clashes continue and humanitarian aid has essentially stopped.
SEA GUARDIAN estimates that although the region shows no signs of involvement in attacks against ships or piracy in Eritrea, its coasts and ports present risks, the main feature of which is the uncertainty about the safety of ships near them.
There are countries whose companies have had interests in the region for many decades, having supported all sides involved in the conflict, at times. The whole region can be used as a springboard to create instability, both north towards Libya-Egypt, and south towards Kenya, without leaving aside the threat of crime from the neighboring Somalia against Shipping.
The announcement of establishing a parallel government by the RSF in West Sudan leads the country to a new state of conflict as SEA GUARDIAN had highlighted in its previous SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/15, July 10, estimating that this new-ensuing possibly will jeopardize not only Sudan internally, but also its relations with Libya and Egypt.
The threat assessment due to “military actions” is HIGH.
For the ports’ security at the most, the threat of side-effect from the dense of military/paramilitary operations produces risk levels and the overall risk of incidents is considered “MEDIUM”, analyzed as follows: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “NSR” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” is estimated “LOW”. For “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “NSR”.
RedSea – Yemen
As it had been stated, analyzed and warned in the SECURITY SEAGUARDIAN ASSESSMENT 25/14, June 25 and highlighted in the previous assessment, it was de-stabilized due to the aggressive attacks of July 06 and 07 against shipping by Houthi’s after a longstanding period of non- attacking (period from December 2024 – June 2025).
SEA GUARDIAN, once again points out the possible change in the mode of attacks against ships, with a combination of ballistic missiles, UAVs, drones and speedboats with armed para-militia. The threat from speedboats with armed crews, provided that the cooperation of the head of the security team and the captain of the ship is harmonized, in most cases, if not all, can be repelled, as was the case with ETERNITY C. This cooperation withstood the attacks for more than 24 hours, while it was essentially immobile from a ballistic missile strike that exploded into the engine room. The threat from ballistic missiles, drones and UAVs combination could only be addressed by naval units, while their presence also provides a sense of security to ships’ crews. In an event of sinking, an immediate search and rescue operation could be provided by naval assets (sea and air).
SEA GUARDIAN estimates that another important factor is personnel recovery, which, with appropriate analysis of the effects of a shipwreck (BIA) and a good planning, creates a frame of a successful outcome. This could rebuild confidence that will positively affect not only seamen and security teams, but also their family members, reducing the level of uncertainty. Coordination in three levels (dryadic) is of paramount importance: close and direct coordination between shipping and security companies’ high management, harmonizing the decision-making process between the master of the ship and security team leader, as well as the international connections of both the shipping and maritime security companies. The concepts and approaches for providing protection to western interests shipping is differentiated to other (such as China’s), as western shipping is being targeted buy a different nature of threats in our current era. It is also noted that investment by Shipping and Security companies in personnel recover capabilities, although it creates an additional cost, the successful outcome of such operations has multiple benefits in credibility, demonstrating integrity towards protection of life at sea, aligned with the international regulations of the IMO and ILO/MLC.
Israel Defence Forces is in the current time the only force executing attacks against Houthis mainly against Hodeidah port by long-range drones, considering that the EU Operation ASPIDES does not contain the task of attacking and the assets of PROSPERITY GUARDIAN have stopped the strikes against Houthis since the early June. Even if the IDF stated that attacks were for the reason of destroying the re-building of port installation in order not to be used by Iran in possible future operations, these attacks are valuable for the shipping industry as the only protection they have is from private maritime security companies.
• The threat assessment due to “military actions” is HIGH.
The current situation being appeared since last month, introduces a new risk environment due to the complexity of the attacks. The overall risk of incidents is “HIGH” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “MEDIUM” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “HIGH” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “MEDIUM”.
Israel – Iran / Northern Persian Gulf
As it has been stated, analyzed and warned in the SECURITY SEAGUARDIAN ASSESSMENT 25/15, July 10 the situation in the Iran periphery remains stable after the “ceasefire” agreement, but “uncertainty” for the future remains.
The cessation of operations of the 12-day Israel-Iranian confrontation, gave way to a period of reordering the situation. After the purges inside Iran and the executions of people accused of collaborating with the Israeli secret services, the cancellation of the law for accepting control by the UN watchdog and the wait for the start of a new round of negotiations with the USA for the control of Iran’s nuclear program, the tension in the Persian Gulf has significantly decreased. US, EU and Israel decided several sanctions against not only Iraqi entities but also certain individuals with the blame of humanitarian crimes, while are keenly contested if they will financially influence Iraq. The IMEC plan is going far-aside of being implemented which could be of long-term future alternative for global supply-road in the world transportation path of EU – Middle East – Indian Pacific interconnection.
SEA GUARDIAN estimates that peace conditions have not been fully stabilized, while the US will follow a tactic against Iran that will not provoke the entire Arab world against them and at the same time maintaining the possibility of intervention at their discretion. It has been pointed out that US Strategic Target may be the current leadership, but Iran of course has nothing to do with the case of Iraq in the past, since the Revolutionary Guards have a more extensive, complete and stronger structure in the country.
The new “triggers” that could create escalation are: Security incident directly targeting the International Zone in Baghdad or involving US diplomatic or military personnel and Iran-linked groups, Security incident involving theHouthis and civilian or military vessels/target in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden, direct operation or attack against Iran involving the US, Israel, Gulf or regional states and Stalemate in UN-brokered peace talks on Yemen.
Threat assessment due to “military actions” against merchant vessels is downgraded to LOW.
The threat of side-effect from the dense of military operations produces risk levels of the overall risk of incidents as “LOW” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “NSR” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “NSR” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “LOW”.
Terrorism – piracy and also cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways
As it has been stated and analyzed in the SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/15, July 10, actions on the borderline of terrorism in terms of piracy methods attacking is the next near-future nature of threats.
There are no variations in the triggers that have been listed in the previous report, according to which the identification of escalation or de-escalation of the threats of the subject can be methodically approached.
SEA GUARDIAN advises its clients to always stay informed and to use this assessment as a guide for targeted information. The company is also planning the development of an inhouse information collection application, useful for the period in between the issuance of security assessments, as a subscription of near-real time intelligence.
RISK ASSESSMENT
Gulf of Guinea
In the SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/13, June 10 and 25/14, 25 June, the entire region is referred as the “Gulf of Guinea – GoG” has been extensively analyzed for threats/risks, while in the SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/15, 10 July, . The most important monitoring objectives have been given in relation to the Gulf States that contribute most to the SECURITY RISK in the entire region.
Some of these countries are approached more warmly by the US and it will not be surprising, the US to achieve specific agreements with them, due to the fact that their “raw materials” have a high priority for the needs of the US industry. On the other hand, internal conflicts and confrontations due to political differences are not easy to deal with. Even if there are no serious confrontations among the states in the GoG, states have their internal problems.
SEA GUARDIAN estimates and points out that the risks for shipping companies still exist, not in terms of traditional piracy, in most cases accompanied by hijacking of an entire ship and crew or sinking, but for armed robbery, while individuals are very aggressive and, in most cases, pose a mortal threat to the ship’s crew during their stay on board. Even if in the latest period there are less incidents than the beginning of this year, there is an uncertainty related to a sudden enhancement of incidents due to Gulf states’ internal political confrontations.
The overall risk of incidents is “HIGH”, which is analyzed in: “Borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as LOW / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “HIGH” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “NSR”.
Central Mediterranean Sea – Libya
It is noted once again that while the external image of the ports in Libya may appear to be controlled and secure, SEA GUARDIAN’s analysis and assessment has shown that there are inherent risks in the absence of a unified security network for the ports of the country.
It is estimated that the actions of the various militia and military groups in addition to the rivalry of Eastern and Western Libya governments, as well as the frequency of attacks with weapons and tactics by various international actors against shipping – for which Libya can be blamed – dictate the need for measures been taken by the Western world’s Shipping industry by its own means and within the ports.
Particular attention should also be paid in a situation of oil export reduction due to the deterioration of current transactions, which will be estimated by the end of September. However, for the time being international shipping should take appropriate security measures, as opportunities for profit transporting Libyan oil are very attractive with fixed destinations (mainly France, Spain and Italy). It is estimated that shipping companies, prior of deciding
port calls in Libyan ports, must take appropriate security measures in consultation with the security authorities of each port and PMSCs.
The overall risk of incidents is “MEDIUM” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “NSR” (No Signal for risk) / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “MEDIUM” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “NSR”.
East Mediterranean Sea
Due to the limitation of conflicts appearance in wide areas on its coast, the threat assessment is MEDIUM.
As analyzed in the previous security assessment, the threats in the Eastern Mediterranean stem from the Israel-Hamas conflict, the instability in Syria, and the presence of Palestinians/Hamas/Hezbollah in Lebanon, whose situation is listed in the correspond paragraphs of the present threat assessment.
The US is interested in stabilizing the situation through continuous and separate contacts with the governments, mainly of Lebanon and Syria, while it is now clear that President Trump is promoting Israel’s primacy in the region, even though he would not want to upset the most part of the Arab world.
The risks are uncertain and directly linked to the threat levels given in the aforementioned paragraphs. Finally, commercial ships involved in any way in the export of Russian oil despite the sanctions, are subject of attacks even in this area (these specific threats require separate and specific analysis).
The overall risk of incidents is “MEDIUM” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “VERY LOW” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “HIGH” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “NSR”.
The threat from military/paramilitary actions on the East coasts of Mediterranean is “MEDIUM” due to the conflicts in Gaza strip and Syria.
Syria
As it has been a stated and analyzed extensively, the Syrian problem is a little more complex than other similar problems in the areas we process through this assessment. You could find the thorough analysis in SEAGUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMNET, March 21 while an extensively analysis after the withdrawal of sanction by US and EU is contained in the SECURITY ASSESSMENT May 22.
The clash between HTS forces and the fierce reaction of the IDF, proves that Israel will not only withdraw from its pursuits as already stated by SEAGUARDIAN assessments at the beginning of last month, but will insist on controlling the area.
It is estimated that the risks remain high with the possibility of producing incidents of attacks, within ports on the verge of terrorism and the seizure of ships. This form of “piracy / attack” resembles the case of Libya in a different way and conditions. The regulatory factor in the area seems to be Israel which reacts dynamically in cases of HTS attacks at the most Druzes’ areas, by striking aggressively the Syrian armed forces inside their terrain, as to reach Damascus, leaving no choices to HTS than to abandon any kind of operations against non-contracted groups.
Additionally, the absorption of funds from abroad, under the current conditions, appears difficult, as a result of which any evolvement on a transition to normality, is uncertain.
On the coasts of Syria, the overall risk for incidents is “MEDIUM” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “NSR” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “MEDIUM” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “NSR”.
Lebanon
At present, there is no indication of any escalation of risks on the coasts and ports of Lebanon, the uncertainty of a sudden attack on ships in port is low, and Hezbollah appears to be in its interest to support a state of normality, at least in the medium term.
On the coasts of Lebanon, the overall risk of incidents is “LOW” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “NSR” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “LOW” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “NSR”.
Suez Canal – Northern Red Sea
As reported and analyzed in the SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/13, June 10 and 25/14 Jun 25 even if in the previous period the absence of a Houthi attack proposed to the shipping industry the return into the Red Sea/Suez Canal route, this didn’t last enough in order to rebuild a trustful passage due to the incidents on 6 and 7 July, that created a high level of concerns in the Red Sea, affecting consequently the traffic through the Suez Canal.
The Suez Canal Authority (SCA) continues to pursue international cooperation agreements with shipping companies and states such as China in an effort to restore traffic. To some extent, the China example could be a successful approach, taking into account that its shipping companies are not targeted by the usual threats in the region.
SEA GUARDIAN believes that true free competition affecting product prices due to shipping fees combined with a reduction or absence of attacks are the only factors that would decide the restoration of traffic, but this process requires time and patience. In the meantime, we emphasize that the shipping industry of Western countries should trust the PMSCs of Western countries, which are studying the security situation in detail, being more concerned about the threats and risks, having their security personnel onboard.
As the area is geographically connected with Bab-el-Mandeb, the enhancement of traffic through the Suez Canal cannot be foreseen, if there are no tangible results by the International Community to suppress the Houthis threat.
Due to the uncertainty on the coasts of East Mediterranean, in the Suez Canal and in the Northern Red Sea,the overall risk of incidents is “LOW” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “VERY LOW” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “LOW” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “NSR”.
Bab-el-Mandeb Straits – Southern Rea Sea
Threat assessment due to «actions of war» is considered HIGH from MEDIUM, while specifically for the northern region of the straits close to the vicinity of Houthi’s activities has been analyzed in another section (Red Sea-Yemen).
As reported and analyzed in the two ASSESSMENTS of June and July 2025, traffic in the straits is fluctuating. The last two reports show that maritime traffic has been significantly affected by the attacks of 6 and 7 July. We have observed and noted that the fluctuations in order to safely assess the restoration of traffic, it takes more than a month.
SEA GUARDIAN’s assessments due to the latest incidents that took place in the Red Sea, had depicted the uncertainty regarding the unexpected re-appearance of the threat. It emphasizes once again that the advice to the shipping industry consider the area from the Gulf of Aden to the approach to Suez and vice versa as a “unified hot spot area” with, of course, different levels of risk along the whole maritime route.
Until a broad strike on the sources of threats and risks changes the situation, close and immediate support from all stakeholders on security measures in the area is required. SEA GUARDIAN strives to constantly review the situation, in an effort to provide not only strategic advice (security risk assessment) but also operational (voyage risk assessment) besides with its systems for guarding the guardians’ methods (as readiness for personnel recovery should be planned in advance), useful not only for companies’ decision-making but also for the Masters to secure their vessels cooperating with the security teams.
Due to the unstable situation in the Middle East and the Northern Red Sea (Sudan-Eritrean-Ethiopia) as well as the Houthi’s aggressive behavior,the overall risk of incidents is “MEDIUM” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “MEDIUM” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “HIGH” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “LOW”.
The threat from military/paramilitary actions due to the Yemen’s Houthis is “MEDIUM”.
Gulf of Aden – Somalia
As it has been stated and analyzed in the 25/15 July 10 SG assessment. There are no significant changes in the situation but a possible unexpected attack by Somali pirates must be always in our planning for Security measures. The possibility of Somali pirates to expose a new tactic of attacking with more destructive results and more achievable goals must always be under consideration. Having a deep operational knowledge due to vast number of passages through the high risk area, security teams can confront without any difficulty piracy attacks, as this is not the case with the Houthis using military/paramilitary methods and concepts of approach.
The overall risk of incidents is “MEDIUM” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “HIGH” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “HIGH” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “NSR”. The previous months’ absence of attacks proposes the corresponding domain as LOW while the capturing of all ship’s attacked highlight the risk of hijacking e.t.c as HIGH.
The threat from military/paramilitary actions in the Gulf of Aden is “LOW” due to no-direct relation with the conflict in the area.
Arabian Sea – Gulf of Oman
The region has shown a threat declination in recent times, even with the threat of GNSS interference. However, the region remains a hot spot as tensions simmer, the potential for piracy cannot be ignored, negotiations on the control program of Iran’s nuclear program are not ongoing, and the sanctions imposed by the US, Israel and the EU on Iran are quite recent and have not been absorbed, in order to measure the possible reactions. At the very least, uncertainty exists.
In the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, the overall risk of incidents is “LOW” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “VERY LOW” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “MEDIUM” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “LOW” due an unexpected and sudden re-escalation even the number of attacking proposes the opposite.
Threat assessment due to «actions of war» is considered “LOW”.
Hormuz Straits – Persian Gulf
As reported and discussed in SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/15, 10 July, tensions in the area have remained. The conditions for closing the straits are not high, but the threat of GNSS jamming combined with the approach of ships by small boats with armed crews declaring as local authorities and demanding to be boarded for official inspections, remains.
In addition, SEA GUARDIAN has advised ships to be prepared to navigate using traditional methods, even if GNSS jamming has decreased. The use of security teams is highly recommended, even if the environment appears calm, because security teams are a tool at the captain’s discretion, capable of not only guarding the ship, but also providing advice and assistance in various aspects.
In the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, the overall risk of incidents is “MEDIUM” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “LOW” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “MEDIUM” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “MEDIUM” due to the conjunction with the attempt of small boats with armed crew to board ships pretending official services who claim inspection rights, promoting the use of any help against traditional threats except from the threat of war.
Malacca Straits
As it has been stated and analyzed in SEA GUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/15, July 10,the Straits of Malacca (Singapore straits included) is one of the most important shipping passages and contains the risks of maritime crime and robbery on the borderline of piracy expressed with a very aggressive approaching. Even if the relation between succeeded robberies to the attempts rate is lower than other hot spots, the number of attempts is high, raised in the latest period of the current month.
In these terms shipping companies are advised to navigate carefully through the entire area and take as much measures as the conditions permit. There is a culture of thefts within the frame of stuff that a human can carry and in conjunction with aggressivity robbery results are considerable.
The overall risk of incidents is “HIGH” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “HIGH” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “LOW” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “NSR”.
As it has been stated and analyzed in the last SG SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/15, July 10, the new tactics of attacking shipping addresses new methods of defending and a more sophisticated and wise approach while the factors of mitigating risks has cited in the aforementioned assessment, in detail.
In addition, the latest incidents in the Red Sea with the total loss of two merchant vessels, introduce the issue of the significant importance of the personnel recovery after a search and rescue operation, especially when crew members have been captured by terrorists or not internationally recognized authorities. An impact analysis is needed at any case, taking into account that the objective of the attackers is the image impact in the western media of a vessel while sinking and not the captivity of the crew members. There is a need for batch of different capabilities shared in a good plan, international relations and conducts, maintained under a high classified blanket. These procedures must be constantly reviewed and updated, with the aim of being ready to apply at any time.
It is clear that even if threats like the Houthis cease to exist in the near future, the threat of piracy and any kind of maritime criminality will continue to exist, and this should be the goal of preparation at all levels.
Strategic-Operational Threat/Risk Assessment Levels for areas / domains under permanent monitoring
SEA GUARDIAN evaluates and reviews periodically (24/7) or after a serious incident the Political/Strategic and Strategic/Operational intel & info to produce organized threat/risks levels in relation to shipping routes and groups of “uncertainties” registered in database of which the map of “app” it is depicted below (in tailor-made concept) and could be provided as “near-real time service” upon request.
The following map represents the latest evaluation and review just before the publishing of this SECURITY Assessment.
As it has been stated and analyzed in SEA GUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/15, July 10, the situation has similarities with the aftermath of a general war situation. In these terms US will continue its plan for tariffs on all over the world states’ economies, sanctioning them as they have lost a war against them. Similar example is the sanctions imposed by Israel and the EU against Iran. Trump’s general political pursuit that was expressed before the elections for the “USA for its citizens”, has specific political actions with strategic interventions and economic intrigues. It is estimated that the US President does not intend to disrupt existing shipping lines, but these interventions will create changes in flows and will open new maritime routes (north passages), which will however be affected by the changing form and intensity of threats in each geopolitical region.
SEA GUARDIAN advises the Shipping Industry to intensify monitoring of these threats, to readjust the policy of providing protection to its ships and to consult experts on these issues, in order to adapt quickly to any new situation may arise by more sophisticated threats.
The authorities of countries providing personnel to International Shipping, such as the Philippines, are warning Shipping Companies to avoid using the Red Sea, in order to protect their citizens. This “threat” although must be taken seriously due to the fact that Philippines for example, provide a large number of crews to Shipping without limits, should not be the exclusive factor in making decisions on the use or non-use of specific Shipping Routes. In any case, there are Shipping Routes that continue to be used despite the existence of major threats. In an era when Maritime Security companies have organized services for search-rescue and recovery of personnel, there are tools for comprehensive protection of human life, all over the globe.
The flow in the SUEZ CANAL cannot be estimated, since in the last quarter and especially after the announcement of discounts by SCA, any increase in the flow showed that we were moving into a state of restoration, an event that created expectations. Additionally, there are companies that continue to use the SUEZ CANAL steadily, in contrary to the fluctuation of threats. SEA GUARDIAN estimates that the restoration of the flow does not only depend on the type and size of the threats, but also on the intention/decision of the shipping industry to defend its lines, through SUEZ CANAL.
With threats in general around the planet tending to become asymmetric and of dubious origin, shipping industry should reposition itself on its traditional lines, transmitting the decision to defend them, with the help of states of course where the threats require military action.
In the previous assessment for the first time, we were referred on stowaways. This threat is not a new phenomenon as there have been many cases in the past that Shipping has suffered for quite some time. These smuggling situations may not be a threat to the safety of ships per se, but in a world where threats remain silent, stowaway-smuggling creates a security vacuum, and can certainly be the starting point of an “asymmetric threat”. Especially in the Central Mediterranean-Libya, with the significant increase of illegal immigration, the most basic action is the embarking/disembarking control during stay in ports.
In the Eastern Mediterranean, there have always been turbulences that could create risks for Shipping, but at the moment these come from the Israel-Hamas conflict and the internal upheavals in Syria, which do not affect the Israel-Hamas conflict, but are affected by Israel’s actions within the framework of its own aspirations. For the first time, SEA GUARDIAN expresses its assessment that a fragmentation of Syria is not excluded, which could create a kind of “free trade zone” in the Syrian ports in the Mediterranean under unspecified control, hitherto. It is clear that the zones of influence imposed by the US and other actors and the situations and the results that will arise from the conflicts to date, will structure a new era of International Security and we will return to threats that will not be related to states but to ordinary criminality, globally interconnected.
• It is also estimated that cyber-threats and electronic harassment will continue to exist and may intensify in the medium-term future, as a result of which traditional Shipping should be the choice that ensures the safety of navigation. SEA GUARDIAN advises the Shipping industry to plan its activities at two levels, decision-making with a key factor in the security threats of the sailing areas (Maritime Security risk assessment) and the execution of voyages with a risk assessment for the specific routes (voyage risks assessment), as well as taking measures to ensure the absence of threats during the sailing near coasts and remaining in various “port calls”.
Usefull links for military actions and picture of piracy attacks in:ACLED and IMB/ICC.
Usefull documents and manuals for GNSS interference:
Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd / Intel Department (www.sguardian.com / +30 6944373465) cansupport your operational planning, assist in determining the risk assessment and provide assistance in decision making by producingtailor-made assessments upon requeston ports in the region, on routes, on cargos and specific merchant vessels. You can refer to our previous Threat & Risk assessment analysis briefs for more information and background analysis on the events and situation in the region.
Viewers can also log here below and read Sea Guardian’s previous in order to connect same with the latest events as same are stipulate above in its last one:
