WORLD ECONOMIC & MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
GLOBAL MARKETS: The USD retained a firm tone in European trade on Monday as recent US macro data releases support the view that the domestic economy remains on a sustained recovery path. Elsewhere, the EUR/USD remained trapped within the 1.2350/1.2550 recent range. Amid market anxiety over the outcome of Thursday’s ECB monetary policy meeting, EUR/USD range bound activity will likely prevail until then. We expect the ECB to stay put on its monetary policy while President Mario Draghi is likely to signal once again that the prospect of additional monetary policy easing remains on the cards.
GREECE: The Greek government reportedly sent to the troika heads early on Sunday its final proposals over the outstanding issues underlying the current program review. As per the same sources, the said proposals include, among others, an increase in the value-added tax applied to hotels and certain amendments to the pension system. Meanwhile, international press reports suggested that the November 27 Euro Working Group agreed on the provision of an Enhanced Conditions Credit Line (ECCL) to Greece once the current EFSF program comes to an end.
SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE
SERBIA: Industrial production fell by 11.2%YoY in October, with the annual rate of decline somewhat easing from a 16.0%YoY drop in the prior month. Meanwhile, the trade deficit registered a modest, 1.6%YoY, increase to € 2, 2103.2mn over the first ten months of the year and retail trade turnover increased by 1.5%YoY at constant prices in October.
BULGARIA: According to Eurostat data, the rate of unemployment in Bulgaria declined by 0.1 percentage point to 11.1% in October.
CESEE MARKETS: Tracking losses in major European and Asian bourses on Monday, the majority of emerging stock markets fell in European trade as a further drop in global oil prices weighed down on energy-related shares and added to deflation concerns in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, downbeat manufacturing data from China added to the negative tone. Separately, CESEE currencies and local rate markets were little changed earlier today.
Viewers can log herebelow and read the full report: