The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) closed up just six points earlier on today at 921, given the low plus level of the Capers; Hurricanes and Geopolitics bring chaos, deaths and total global uncertainty. John Faraclas’ weekly recapitulation of the markets and geopolitics:
The BDI was up six points since yesterday at 921 but also 46 points up since last week’s (30/9) 875 points; “thanks” once again to the volatile as ever Capers.
The Capers and the respective BCI 2015 was modestly up 27 points at 2,245 which is also 237 points plus since last week’s 2,008 points – there was also a drop below the 2,000 point mark on Monday 3/10 (at 1,971 to be precise) but volatility has a name: Capers! We are not as enthusiastic as one should be due to the fact that one size cannot dictate all other sizes…
The Panamaxes’ BPI gained 13 points since yesterday, now standing at 717, but lost nine since last week’s 726 points… Caution!
The Supras and its respective BSI were down one point at 677 and two points down since last week’s 679…
The Handies’ BHSI was down two points at 411 and ten points down since last Friday’s 421!
So with these figures you can judge for yourself whether this is a steady and prospective market or not; just remember that overall you need to see another 1,500 points plus for the BDI to surpass the end of December 2013 levels, correct?
The Wets on a daily basis were up and the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 619 points– up six, and 350 – up four respectively. On a weekly basis though, both were down; the Dirties minus 19 (from 638) and the Cleans minus eight (from 358).
Dooms Day for the Boxships; there are of course some coming up newbuilding orders, but one needs exceptional acumen to survive whether big, medium or small… Reefer containers, TEUs or FEUs are even seasonally more than fine! Exotic fruits can make the day and Reefer tonnage can bring handsome capital gains!
We must also be aware of the difficulties of many Liner Companies; wrong policies might bring down two to three more Hanjins…so to speak…
What’s the remedy for consolidation…?
Promising so to speak days ahead, possibly years with the LNG’s. Difficult trade though but if an “all change” happens, big money is there. Same applies as we numerous time have stressed in the usage of ASE (Alternative Sources of Energy) where we expect on a hundred centum basis that if we all switch to ASEs, Big Money Will Change Hands!
Fracking is coming up in the UK too; watch this space… as in general shale oil and gas will soon dominate the field and changes will take place in the energy sector that only Nuclear Energy can counter for!
The price of WTI went a bit above the US$ 50 and let’s see if this level remains or drops below. In any case this causes mixed feelings in the markets expressed in billions of dollars…
The International Shipbuilding Industry that is to say and refer ONLY to Newbuildings is in a total mess. From the one side you have closures and bankruptcies (China and S. Korea) or … jobs to do, lack of shipfinance (traditional or otherwise), new safety and environmental regulations being the “stabling block” the good stumbling block in my view… but what we need now in my view is ultra-modern new ergonomic ships for low capability crew members.
The Shiprepair and Conversion front is better off but not that one excepted… For all three sectors, don’t ask what happens in Greece for example… Meantime let’s see if and when Maersk will order its next generation of feeder ships; a good injection for a couple of shipyards but also on who has the upper hand in the trade. Feel that others will follow suit!
All in all I do favour newbuildings and in general ultra-modern and versatile maximum five year acquisitions as we are in the best ever buyers’ market!!! Having said that we know also how to build good and low price tonnage – we are far more advanced than the hoi polloi and can give appropriate advice! Obviously afterwards you will understand the fast one that many shipbrokers, yards and lenders called on you over the last three cycles! …and now be ready for this last oval to continue as no cycles are on sight! The Shipping Cycles such as we knew it is dead in the water! Yes we have 10.5 billion tonnes of cargoes moving in 2016, but shipping turns to become shipping for the very very few – for the time being some individuals will survive, but the National-State owned companies are ante portas… Let’s see how individuals listed or not can counter and how on this coming situation / reality!
In the meantime, indeed we need to build up Seafarers and this can only be done in appropriately raising Shipping’s Image / profile within ALL societies and Nations as in this endemic recession and tragedy on Planet Ocean, the only secure and well paid jobs are those of the seafarers. Greeks need a training ship!!!! Seamanship is an important aspect and wonder if our society produces seafarers without seamanship! We need above all Mentoring too! Training ships can also be useful for maritime Lawyers, Economists, Bankers, Shipbrokers of any kind and WOMEN – WISTA International must adhere to this. My view is that what you do not know you cannot control; so all must be sea-shape and you know what this entails….
Enough on the Shipping issues; time to read a few things on Geopolitics; the sector which greatly affects the entire Shipping Industry:
The MIGRANTS issue, as we repeatedly insist every day has reached levels beyond any incalculable proportion – too difficult to be curbed and now the Politicians and their cronies have to bear the stigma of the mess, the biggest mess they have created all over Planet Ocean! Greece, Italy and Malta are the three main “recipients”…then of course Europe sealed its frontiers in the most pathetic way…
Turkey keeps a blind eye and more and more arrive in the Greek islands. The islanders there (Lesvos, Chios, Samos, Kos to name but a few eastern Aegean Greek Islands) had enough! Troubles everyday… It will spill over. Can the USA curb Turkish blackmail in the region on all fronts?
The War in Syria for controlling geopolitics by all super powers will backfire after same spills over. It goes worse; CAUTION! Very soon we will all be shocked from what is yet to come!
Turkey must respect international treaties in the region; same applies for Albania also with too many skeletons in the cupboard… Pushing and provoking Greece will inflame the entire region. Is this what President Obama and Putin are after? Both of them have dealing with Turkey, but in the long term both have failed and will spectacularly fail yet again. It is the long run that counts; that is stability in the region and beyond, that is prosperity and development AND well-being of the people in the region. That is what is called PEACE!
Greece is still in Dire Straits; from the one side the infamous European Union headed by the Germans still wanting to destroy Greece – and that’s a fact from what we are witnessing not just the last eight but over 70 (seventy) years now, from the other side the other infamous corporation, that is the IMF. Add the current moron coalition regime and the rest of the Greek politicians and see what you get and were Greece and the entire Balkans are heading to… Expect the unexpected – predictably!
Whilst the Greek politicians are messing about the Greek Masters of the Seven Seas proving their real interest proceed with investments, offshore investment, such as the multi-phase one of Kerameia Project in Chios, which was presented a couple of days ago to investors and others in a Chios resort. A touristic and maritime tourism investment, simultaneously of international magnitude and scope for the Island of Chios, the Aegean Sea, Greece and Peace in the region! The island of Masticha at the forefront once again!
BREXIT, hard-core or soft makes the world go round. Being a supporter of the BREXIT for reasons numerous times explained in writing, I fear that only the United Kingdom will gain, with minor hiccups; the rest, particularly in Europe (EU) will have to suffer. The World at large obviously will be affected. As for the plummeting of the Sterling (Pound), well, the old saying “some people feel the rain, others just yet wet” applies… We have seen worse situs such as back in early June 1985 One USDollar being nearly One pound! Going back in September 1972 it was One Pound close to USDollars 2,25 !!!! Then the Oil Crisis, Edward Heath’s three day week… the rest is history… These are expected things to happen. Work Hard to alter this situation! Work is a blessing and Joy; forget all these dirty politics and all these business and political hooligans, look after yourself, family and work!
FREXIT you said? Marine Le Pen has other ideas; she want to have back the legislative, territorial, economic and monetary sovereignty if she leads France… You never ever know what might happen even from another French leader… If things continue the Mighty Continent might …break-up!
Once again I have to repeat that the European Idea is great but as proved until now, the Brussels team under the German hegemony simply failed. There is room to rectify same, indeed, but needs honest politicians and not trimmers! It is not just the North versus the South of Europe, it is more than that. Try also to see how many ex-empires rest now in Europe, the Colonial Powers as we call them ex and current: Portugal, Spain, France, The UK, Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany, Italy… shall I carry on… These Nations and former colonial powers are now clashing with the US, Russia and above all with China… China is also causing too many problems and will for sure create havoc in the markets. Regulation and control please!
Japan is watching… India too. Did I hear you say Indonesia…?
At the other side of the Atlantic, Mrs. Clinton is four centum ahead from Donald Trump. Getting in the White House is one thing, implementing the appropriate policy for all on Planet Ocean is yet another, including of course Trade on which Shipping and the shipping rates are included and affected! Bad news from the Hurricane Matthews behaviour were after leaving 900 plus dead in Haiti now has eyed the US’ East coast…
Russian becomes more aggressive with the USA and might open up military bases in Cuba and Vietnam…Don’t ask what will happen in Eastern Ukraine and how the Crimea case will change the balance of powers in the entire Black Sea / Caspian periphery!
In South Africa the Universities are more or less all closed; what’s up down there, eh! South Africa should become yet again the leading nation of the African Continent! No further excuses, you dead well know what I mean!
In Malta Europe’s’ South Shipping Powers, Cyprus, Greece and Malta make certain arrangements boosting also the first ever Malta Maritime Summit held there 3-6th of October! Congrats to all and to our supporter and friend John-Gauci Maistre, family and colleagues for silently doing their utmost best for the success of this event.
The Wealth Forums event on the 4th of October at the Caledonian Club off Belgravia was more than an interesting event given what happens with the BREXIT issue and the world economy at large!
In Athens’ Eugenidion Foundation Centre on the 5th of October the 2016 Safety4Sea Conference & Awards was more than a great event!
The 9th Capital Link Shipping and Maritime Service, Offshore Summit event in London on the 5th of October was unique; more than a success. We will bring you more news once same are available. Remind you the 6th Shipping & Offshore CSR coming up on the 2nd of November in London!
IMIF’s first buffet luncheon event for this Autumn after the holiday break was also interesting from many points of view, with Christoph Toepfer of Borealis Maritime talking on “ private Equity & Shipping: Sustainable partnership?”
Maritime Tourism and all seawise holidays, sports and travel AND Cruises will be included in the World Travel Market coming up on London’s ExCel’s Centre in East London on the 7 to 9 of November. An event NOT to be missed, as over a billion people rely on Tourism!
Money money and the world goes round… the 18th Marine Money Greek Ship Finance Forum at the Athens Hilton will attract once again the global interest! Our team hopefully will be there for the 11th of October event…
The legal position of the ship’s Master when tackling the day-to-day pressures of today’s shipping industry, will be the subject of this year’s Cadwallader Debate and Dinner, organised by the London Shipping Law Centre, Maritime Business Forum. The debate, on 26th October, will be chaired by The Lord Clarke of Stone-cum-Ebony and will be attended by over 250 delegates from across ship owning, ship management, insurance, law, class and regulatory sectors. Entitled: “The Master Under Attack? Authority and Responsibility in an age of instant access”, the debate will discuss the problems Masters face and suggest possible solutions. For more information about the debate and how to get tickets, please contact Gerard Matthews on +44 (0) 20 7936 3417 or by email: Shipping@ShippingLBC.co.uk
Coming up in Copenhagen is also the Danish Maritime Fair on the 25-27th of October; an event not to be missed. Log on the respective banner and articles in this site.
At the Ahoy in Rotterdam the Intermodal Europe – Exhibition and Conference is on 15-17 November; be there!
Then immediately after the Intermodal event, the Prof. Grammenos 8th City of London Biennial meeting at the IMO 17 to 18 of November!
More events in the UPCOMING EVENTS Calendar Box…
Have a great, peaceful evening and weekend where ever you are, and come down to your senses before we all come down to our knees.