Home HRAnniversaries Capers’ volatility brings the BDI@875; Yellowstone Geopolitics ante portas…

Capers’ volatility brings the BDI@875; Yellowstone Geopolitics ante portas…

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John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) closed up 19 points since yesterday at 875 and 134 since last week’s 741 points, thanks to the as ever volatile Capers, “inducing” also all the other sizes, both on a daily and weekly basis. The Geopolitical mayhem continues and not only we are witnessing, we are going to witness further anomalies, particular in the Eastern Mediterranean region. John Faraclas’ daily and weekly recap:

The Capers were up 31 points since yesterday at 1,165 and 426 points since last Friday’s 739. With the PCI 2014 above the 1,000-point threshold it seems things are “changing”; we shall see… We are very cautious as we have seen many times, particularly over the last six months, this scenario/situation…

The Panamaxes had also a rise both on a daily as well as on a weekly basis; 20 and 40 points respectively, so the BPI “makes waves”…

The Supras’ BSI did well on a modest level; the daily 12 and weekly 80 points respectively speaks “loud”… Good to see the daily at 809 – above the 800-points threshold from 729 last week!

The Handies’ BHSI “steady” upwards on the low scale of course; on a daily it gained eight points and on a weekly it nearly tripled same – 27 points plus at 428 from last week’s 391 points…

The Wets are being a bit in a mess; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI) Cleans) stood at 856 – plus four, and 614 – no change; on a weekly though basis the Dirties lost 13 and nine points – from 869 and  the Cleans gained nine – from 605… Caution.

Many companies both in the Dry and Wet sectors are  in dire straits so to speak and expect surprises; the debts are very very very high and cannot be written-off, not just like that, at all…

The Container Market although there was a slight “improvement” don’t count your eggs… We might soon hear terrible news as we might see another Hanjin-style collapse as well as there is a but of uneasiness  with respect the fixtures side and modus, given that China wishes to create a land root… Our first question is: Now?

The WTI stood a fraction above the US$ 54 at US$ 54,02… A worried figure if you analyse same in depth for the poor masses worldwide, but also for the cost in manufacturing, and many many more issues… Last Friday it ended-up at US$ 52,99 giving some hopes for all, but…

The Dow Jones closed up a bit, another record at 20,821.76, FTSE  was slightly down at 7,246.70 , DAX also down at 11,804.03, NASDAQ up a bit at 5,845.31. A strange euphoria and a bit oxymoron with the shipping markets despite the days plus modus and the good week overall; we shall see, but e cautious.

All in all still a buyers’ market, the best ever we have witnessed in shipping so far. It remains to be seen though how many will have a sustainable future…

On the Geopolitical front, and as we are emphatically stressing in our title today, expect Yellowstone-style events to take place.

The MIGRANTS issue retain the lead as the most important issue by far all over Planet Ocean. From all over the Mediterranean to Europe and to the USA, the MIGRANTS issue makes wave which will have incalculable repercussions for all. CAUTION before all neighbourhoods become a war zone… There isn’t just the so called rise of right wing parties in Europe as the media refers to; the reality was looming in the background, hence the result and expect more mess… At the other side of the Atlantic, with the USA – Mexican relationship approaching an all-time low due to the MIGRANTS issue and the imminent construction of the so called Trump’s Wall things might get sour… And what do you make of the latest protest, an anti-immigrant one in South Africa? The locals are against the MIGRANTS who take their jobs… Caution caution caution as we don’t wish South Africa get into deep trouble…

In the Med and Black Sea regions now we are closely watching the Syrian, Iraqi saga and Wars there with ISIS still at large; with Turkey getting too much involved there as well as the dangerous escalation between the war of words and provocative actions against Greece and the European Union. It is time somebody talks to the Turks before it is too late for Global Peace is at stake. Russians have their own agendas both for the East Med as well as for the Black Sea – let’s see though until when – it will be a very interesting thing to watch and let’s see who really calls hte shots on Planet Ocean…

Greece continues to be in a mess both internally and externally; the behaviour of some infamous European leaders is monumental and it will create more friction and mess. There is a must to save the face and profile of the EU’s unity before Europe and its European idea is sold at a piecemeal! The Greek public though keep a brave face and life goes on despite all these undue pressure exercised from all against them and their county. This weekend they celebrate the end of the Carnival  – …eat your heart out Rio, with the famous city of Patras Carnival parade, the Cheesefare on Sunday and Clean Monday flying the traditional kites! A big GREXIT over the weekend…

BREXIT continues and for sure it will be the make or break of the World; it was about time the people of the United Kingdom opt for what is best for them…

The pre-election nerve is hotting up in Germany, France and the Netherlands. Italy find itself too in dire straits. It is the entire of  Europe, not just the European Union and the Euro in a mess.

China and its leaders are closely watching how Donald Trump’s administration evolves. It seems to me that President XI and the entire Chinese administration are trying to read, guess, read and guess president Trump’s moves on all issues: Politics Trade and Trade Agreements, Geopolitics, everything… members of president Trump’s family are there to make it a success; we are sure they will!

In South America we will see another final on Equator’s presidential election one day after Fools Day; hope he locals don’t go bananas…

...in Venezuela, following an unprecedented incident with a skier in France, are protesting to the French as their border authorities didn’t believe he was a skier and turned him back. He misses the Skiing event there, but now he is competing in Finland… We urge you to find the entire story and see the systems madness…

Nikos P. Tsakos delivering his speech

On another note IMIF’s buffet Luncheon hosted by Norton Rose Fulbright was more than a success. It was one of the three best ever attended events of its kind during the last ten years! A full house at the 9th floor auditorium hear Nikos P. Tsakos’ speech on “The State of the Tanker Sector” The head of TEN and Intertanko was very brief – his slides delivery presentation lasted only 15 minutes and his replies to the audiences’ question straight and to the point. We also got a quick and interesting glimpse of Intertanko. A positive, down to earth and optimistic entrepreneur. Good to see so many from the banking, market analysis, legal and media sectors; all in all the entire industry was represented by most of its stakeholders. Will revert with a full account.

These days we are on a expedition in the East Coast of the USA preparing a major survey for the USA and Canada and following our coverage of President’s , Presidents Day we have a small live report earlier on by Anny Zade from New York confirming our view that the USA continues to call the shots in Global economy. More to come soon…

Have a nice long (for the Greeks) weekend and be extra vigilant as terrorists et al loom in the background.

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