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The Market: who’s in?

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John Faraclas

The BDI  (Baltic Dry Index) ended up at 1,540 points earlier on today which is 16 points plus since yesterday and 127 points since last week when it clocked 1,413 points.  The Geopolitical situation looks like as depicting the Before the Storm …environment so to speak. John Faraclas daily and weekly recap:

The Capes’ BCI reached the 2,000 mark threshold – up 51 points which is also 160 points plus since last week’s 1,840 points!

The Panamaxes’ BPI stood at 1,695 – six points plus!    Last week same stood at 1,586; that is 109 points plus!

A bit of a hiccup for the Supras’ BSI which lost one point and now reads 1,194. On a weekly basis though same was up 19 points – from 1,175…

Small gains for the Handies’ BHSI now at 629 , up two. On a weekly basis a dozen points up – from 617 proved a good surge!

The Wets remained on the up… The last published BDTI (Dirties) stood at 805 points, that one up! The weekly figure was even better: 25 points plus – up from 617! The BCTI (Cleans) managed to clinched ten points and now stands at 541! That’s 38 points plus since last Friday’s 503 points!

Container Trade hasn’t recovered yet as many expected and believed. In my time as a student in the early 70’s we learned and seen that one aspect of the Container Trade is speed! The second one is capacity and the third a society whose middle class at least can afford to buy goods coming in from abroad… As the financial situation of billions of consumers on Planet Ocean is in red, get the message! The oxymoron though is that new tonnage is expected to be constructed! Let’s see how many can afford to remain in a trading condition..!

The current economic crisis enters a second decade and this time within these ten years 2018 to 2028 things will get sour for many!  Environmental and other regulation  leads verbatim to the situation we have warned you of: shipping becomes shipping for the very very very few!  One important issue is to have specialists to oversee what lessons are being taught in Academia as its offsprings failed to foresee the coming  crisis (2008 plus) and the collapse of the market as well as its duration. so what on earth have they been taught vis-a-vis risk assessment in shipping? eh! For a long time this medium is sending warnings that shipping will not only become shipping for the very very very few but could turn out to be state owned!!

The WTI was unfortunately up ending the day’s trading at US$ 73.50… Nearly three dollars since last week when it stood at US$ 70.68… CAUTION CAUTION!

The big issue is who’s remains as a sustainable player in the Markets – Dry or Wet, given the uncertainty of the Trade War and its repercussions for all!

The Geopolitical situation remains perplexed and the UN Annual General Meeting set the parameters not just fort the year to come but for the next 25 years; just wait and see…

The MIGRANTS continue to be the biggest and most dangerous of all issues put together as: The Social Cohesion has been broken and same MUST be restored particularly in Europe before it is too late. This in turn brings the issue of  a multilevel passporting which is not fair at all and, above all, coupled with safety and security doesn’t precludes terrorists to surface one day as experience tells us!! Add the unfortunate luck or better say destiny of thousands losing their lives particularly drown babies, children and old ones and see what you get! The Politicians and the Diplomats turn a blind eye; the politicians in Greece for example, particularly elements of the opposition play the theatre of the absurd so to speak…The Diplomats have a sort of Damocles’ Sword above their head… you dead well know what I mean…  The NGO’s et al are also a concern… SHAME to all as all this despicable mess and inhumane behaviour by all, repeat  BY ALL, shouldn’t have continued if there was a Naval Blockade of  both the entire North Africa Coast and the Anatolian Coast of Turkey with a Mandate and Rules of Engagement. End of the Story. Moreover those MIGRANTS emanating mainly from War torn Syria and Iraq wars as well as from other Muslim Countries they should have stayed in the region’s “compatible” so to speak states. Indeed the Christians could have been allowed to temporarily remain in south European Countries could be a workable scheme but… who cares?

The Wars and messy post wars in Syria and Iraq respectively continue with relentless bloodbath in both countries. We cannot find words to characterise this human catastrophe! And there still long way to go. The entire Middle East is on fire and things will spill over. CAUTION!! Turkey, Israel and Iran are on a stand-by situation… Add the uncomfortable situation at the Arabian Peninsular and you will see for yourself what else is yet to come…

Turkey continues to be a major liability for the region, NATO and Europe. There is no way one can sit and talk with its president. Mr. Erdogan is pursuing a very dangerous agenda and Turkish Blackmail is well known through at least two centuries…  Its opposition could also become harder  when in power!! Turkey is technically bankrupt and that’s a worry to its citizens and all of Turkey’s close and distant neighbours! The USA are well aware and will pursue a policy which will make any despot think again before doing what president Erdogan is practicing! Turkey should here and now stop bullying its neighbours, Greece, Cyprus, Syria and Iraq in particular as well as stop stirring up the Balkans using religion as its lethal weapon. The Balkans had enough and given the state of affairs between Serbia and Kosovo, the perplexed situation with Albania and fYroM, things can get off hand, and that might be soon… unless Deus ex Machina appears…  The Referendum in fYroM looks a failure…

Greece is living the strangest of times in its modern history. The country being appropriately bullied by German run Brussels saw its public in the worst ever state of affairs for 188 years (since Greece become a state in 1830) ; this is the harsh reality given also the role of the politicians post the fall of the military regime in 1974. Figures are there for all to check…. Wake up! Ultra-populism from the government and the main opposition is amazing how same is being triggering expectations from the population on all issues: financial and national. Shame. Nemesis though NEVER forgets… Expect a messy period to come. Greece needs a leader its about time the Greek public gets the message in making the distinction who is a party leader – a manager so to speak, and a leader, an awesome personality to see the country has better days ahead. Recent events prove how right we have been and how important is to have an Aristos team to govern Greece for ten years before a general election with a new electoral system: one candidate per party per constituency!

Italy is in a delicate state of affairs too.  With nearly 2.6 trillion Dollars in debt one needs a super budget and discipline to take the Italians out of this crisis… Unless they react indifferently and halt the debt repayment… Lets’ see how Mrs. Merkel and her Brussels guys and dolls react in the Italian crisis looming in the background – actually over the last 15 years!

BREXIT! To BREXIT or NOT to BREXIT isn’t the question! The reality is that the entire Planet Ocean will have issues and wounds except the British people! Indeed there will be a strange and uncomfortable  period but at the  end it will be plain sailing. Free Trade with the European Union and the rest of the World remains the ultimate BREXIT prize!  It’s a pity to see Mrs. May being attacked for really no reason, particularly from “ambitious” elements of her own party. Hands off Mrs May. Lets see what her coming birthday on Monday has for her…  Meantime lets await CCHQ announcement and see who will confront Sadiq Khan in the race to become next Mayor of London!

At the other side of the Atlantic now; US Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh case continues; hopefully by Monday night or Tuesday next week we shall have more news. President Trump fully defends him! In the meantime president Trump maintains his positions on Tariffs, Sanctions and other measures defending the USA’s interests! Trade Wars are Trade Wars and are more difficult than those in the platoon… The WTO warns the USA and China over the Trade War. The latest  rising tensions will become the biggest risk to growth; add the monetary policy tightening and financial volatility which might also destabilise trade… CAUTION as the continuation of this Trade War race between the USA and China could see a 70 centum  cut in global growth and conversely  cost jobs !

In Brazil the presidential election are coming soon; on the 7th of October the first round promises surprises. Women’s reaction could be decisive… Meantime Petrobras scandal ended up for the company to pay  a US$ 653 million penalty following a long running corruption scandal…

Maduros’ Venezuela is at the brink of a total collapse…

Argentina: chaos might govern soon if the IMF and others don’t step in and support this important nation! CAUTION!

What a terrible earthquake was that in Palu, Sulawsi Island in Indonesia; at 7.5 of the Richter scale and a tsunami to come expect a catastrophe and human loss… will revert when we have more news on this.

We will revert before midnight with a full report; until then remain on guard from any eventuality emanating from Pirates, Terrorist and any Criminal whatsoever wherever you are on Planet Ocean!

Uploaded 21:10 BST

Updated: 23:55 BST

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