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2015 ends with a big bang, given the lowest ever BDI

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John Faraclas

John Faraclas

Whatever happened to the Shipping Markets and in particular the Dry ones, rests entirely with our humane business wrong behaviour: greediness  in the ship sales and purchase front and  wrong strategy for not selling or buying at the right time; wrong assessments by wrong assessors of the market projections;  bad shipfinancing and arrogance that ‘my deal is the best’ etc etc…, needless to say ignorance and basically non-readiness to confront  the geopolitical issues and pricing… An annus horribilis for the shipping industry, despite the written projections of three and two years ago by the gurus and the “flamboyant” guys and dolls analysts in London, New York, Piraeus, Singapore and Shanghai… This is now the reality for reaching 471 points in the BDI and, well, they now face the music! From our part, we have a totally different view and in writing we were proven 100 centum right! Right? 

Our fifty-first weekly recapitulation of the shipping markets, their respective main indices and world geopolitics affecting same as we approach the end of 2015 and beyond, tonight Friday the 18th of December 2015, with John Faraclas of AllAboutShipping in London:

  • The BDI closed UP six points at  477 since yesterday  -where it stood idle for 48 hours at its lowest ever level of  471 points, sending tremors in the magnitude of 8 in the Richter scale; that was also 45 points down since last Friday’s 522 points!  As said in para one, we have warned you in writing well in advance! See now how you can swim alone… Just imagine that in mid 2008 the BDI stood at 11, 793 points, an at the end of 2013 at 2, 274 that is 11, 316 and 1, 797 points down respectively and you dead well remember, with all due respect,  the silly analysts what have been saying, even in writing, publishising their views, not to say the expensive reports produced… so who was calling a fast one and why…? Why we are in this state? Very simply I guess that everybody abandonded all sense of reality!
  • There was no change for the BCI which stood at 524 points since yesterday, but it was down 255 since last week’s 779 points; the size with the most volatile character…
  • The BPI was up five points at 426, which is 16 points up since last week’s 410; our favourite size, “doing” well under the circumstances…,
  • The BSI was up just one point at 449, but two points down from last week’s 451 … and the…
  • BHSI was further dropping at 273 points – minus one since yesterday and minus nine since last week’s 282 points
  • The Wets now and the last published indices: Dirties and its BDTI index stood below  the 900 points barrier at 897, that’s minus one point, but 23 points down since last Friday’s 920 points.
  • The Cleans and the respective BCTI was also down one point at 565 and nine points up though since last week’s 556 points.
  • In the Ship Sale and Purchase front,  Newbuildings of any type are being ordered whilst others are being delayed from their original delivery date… not a nice picture suggesting further problems!  In the second hand front, nobody really knows what to do. I share some optimism though which derives from high level dry bulk owners; indeed their SWOTS dictate them to know even when lady luck smiles…!
  • The price of oil, the WTI or the Brent are down close to 35 US dollars. Big entities and nations in danger… Watch it!

On the geopolitics front, as you will hear in the video herebelow, things are getting very messy, influencing the markets and in our humble view the drums of the Third World War, as we said last week, can be heard! Peace in Syria and Iraq as well as various other arrangement are still at stake… Isis must be finished off; it takes quite a time… The Migrants issue, the real cohesion of the European Union, the climate state, the world recession – given China’s economic and development state, the South China Sea EEZ problems and many many others including in our view the inconclusive Climate Change Paris Accord must be carefully watched and tackled. Russia has its own agenda, whilst Turkey is becoming, once more a dangerous state… In Africa too things are getting sour. Greece will be the country to be watched in all fronts. The Americas are expecting a new deal irrespective of the winner in the US elections. Expect another messy year for 2016 in all fronts – a special report is being prepered too. Watch this space!

Have a nice weekend and be on guard in all fronts! We have warned you.

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1 comment

Harilaos Petrakakos December 19, 2015 - 9:02 AM

Dear John. Being sarcastic is your style but you forgeting the fact that these gurus work in cycles. This one includes the 11,000 BDI an unusual peak that distorts the historical and normal peaks and bottoms. They earn millions but they were dead wrobg all these years. Keep up the pressure in these non analysts or non gurus


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