766John (Ioannis) Pavlopoulos, President Sea Guardian SG Ltd., Vice Admiral (ret.) H.N., Honorary Commander in Chief of the Hellenic Fleet , Former Military Representative of Greece to the NATO and EU
THREAT & RISK ASSESSMENT BRIEF UPDATE
Brief Update No 25/18 Date: 29August 2025
STATEMENT
This document has been approved for distribution by SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd / Operations Department. The provided Intel and Information derive from open sources, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) and United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), respective Web Pages and products retrofit the company’s Strategic / Operational and Security situational awareness processes, for risks and threat assessment/impact to the Security of Maritime operations. All rights reserved, “no part of this Risk assessment may be reproduced in any form (electronical, mechanical, paper or other means) without written permission by SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd” which maintain the rights for personal data of this document writers. Under no Circumstances can SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd be held responsible for any loss or damage caused by a reader’s reliance on information obtained by this Assessment, especially on its firms, company’s management or individual decision-making.
Objectives
To provide in a 15-day cycle, the maritime industry and Security Stake or Shareholders with:
Major maritime security incident summary and analysis in Geo-strategic frame for Operational Security and Security of shipping for the period 13-27 August, 2025.
Threat assessment updates concerning military operations – terrorism – piracy and cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways, ships fired and crew loses.
Overview of risk assessment and relevant information, in order to support operational planning and decision as well as the needs for assuredness (impact for insurance or special security needs) after threats and risks Analysis.
SEA GUARDIAN, pursues innovative approach by analyzing Maritime Security in accordance with international standards and a certain frame of Geo-policy. Security assessment deals not only with the risks but also with the threats and international security gaps, in order to maintain our clients well informed
Political / Strategic-Operational Intel/Info collection “app’s chart snap”
SEA GUARDIAN have planned and organized the areas / domains of info/intel collection in a systematic method, supported by an app who’s a chart of near-real time map snapshots, available to be provided as a live service, after request:
RECENT KEY DEVELOPMENTS
On August 13, Aljazeera published Türkiye’s announcement saying that Israel and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) must stop threatening the security and stability of Syria, while Hakan Fidan the foreign minister of Turkey was hosting in Ankara his Syrian counterpart Asaad al-Shaibani. Speaking at a joint news conference, Fidan accused Israel and the SDF of willfully undermining the country’s recovery efforts after a 14-year devasted civil war and the ouster of Bashar al-Assad last December, by a lightning rebel offensive.
On August 13UK, France and Germany have told the UN they are ready to reimpose sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program if it fails to resume talks by the end of August. The three countries, known as the E3, said they were prepared to trigger a “snapback” mechanism – meaning previous sanctions would be reinstated – unless Iran resumes negotiations.
On August 13, the United Nations issued a stark warning about Yemen’s worsening humanitarian crisis in Yemen, with nearly half of all children under five suffering from acute malnutrition. During a UN Security Council meeting, officials urged immediate international intervention to address severe food insecurity, displacement, and the need for political solutions. Ramesh Rajasingham, Director of the Coordination Division at the UN Office for Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), delivered a grim update to the Security Council, revealing that half of Yemen’s children under five face acute malnutrition, with nearly half also suffering from stunted growth due to chronic hunger.
On August 13, the Israeli cabinet’s decision to escalate its war on Gaza, disregarding the humanitarian crises it has caused there already, appears to have angered as many in Israel as in the international community, though not necessarily for the same reasons. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had to backtrack on his idea of seizing all of Gaza after a pushback. In Israel, many suspect that Netanyahu’s move aims to shore up his support among the far-right elements his coalition needs to stay in power, and to drag out a war he feels his political survival depends on.
On August 14,the Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) has announced a new oil discovery following the drilling of three strategic wells for the Algerian company Sonatrach-Sipex. The work was carried out under an Integrated Project Management approach, in partnership with a select group of local and international companies. As part of the project, rigs No. 13, 12, and 33 were reactivated and returned to the company’s fleet, a move the NOC says will boost revenues and improve competitiveness in the local market of Libya.
On August 14, Syria’s interim government has faced mounting challenges in restoring order after nearly 14 years of civil war following the ouster of former President Bashar al-Assad by Islamist-led rebel forces last December. Turkey is willing to provide weapons, military equipment and logistical support to Syria under a newly signed defence agreement, the Turkish Defence Ministry officials said. The announcement came a day after Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler and Syria’s Defence Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra signed a memorandum of understanding for cooperation on military training and consultancy, reinforcing Turkey’s support to Syria’s interim government.
On August 14, the historic Azerbaijan–Armenia Peace Deal under the US aegis is a significant victory for Washington, but a setback for Moscow. With this single deal, Trump has harmed Russian interests in the Caucasus, cut off Iranian access to Europe and the Black Sea, made billions of dollars of Chinese investments in the region under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) dependent on a corridor financed by US capital, establishing NATO right in the center of an area at the crossroads of Russia-China and Iran. However, the single biggest takeaway from the deal could be that the US will now have a territory right on the Iran border.
On August 15, Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem accused Lebanon’s government of “handing” the country to Israel by pushing for the group’s disarmament, warning it would fight to keep its weapons. Qassem spoke in a televised address after meeting Iran’s top security chief, Ali Larijani. Tehran has long backed the Lebanese armed group.
On August 15,the United Nations said that 17 areas in Sudan are classified as at risk of famine, including parts of Darfur, the Nuba Mountains, Khartoum, and Jazira. Stéphane Dujarric, a U.N, spokesperson said the World Food Program is calling for humanitarian access to El Fasher, which is facing starvation and remains cut off from humanitarian assistance. Dujarric said some residents are living on animal fodder and food waste as “a coping mechanism.” “We reiterate our concern about the ongoing conflict and renew our calls for all parties to end the violence and put the interest of their people first,” Dujarric said. The briefing comes as health officials in Sudan launched a 10-day cholera vaccination campaign in the capital, Khartoum, to curb what humanitarians call a rapidly spreading outbreak.
On August 15, China said it “opposes” invoking fresh sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program after Britain, France, and Germany told the United Nations they would reimpose them if no diplomatic solution is found by theend of August. China “opposes invoking” sanctions and “believes that it does not help parties build trust and bridge differences and is not conducive to the diplomatic effort for the early resumption of talks,” foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said in a statement.
On August 15, it was published that on June 12, Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary announced that had taken control of the Sudanese portion of the triangle border region that straddles Sudan, Libya and Egypt. This mysterious desert region has for a long time been hidden away from the eyes of the world, a lawless place where violence and smuggling – of gold, weapons, drugs and people – thrive. Open war now besets the triangle. This hot, dry land is a battlefield where governments, militias, and armed groups struggle, with the backing of foreign powers, for control. The statement released by the RSF, which has been at war with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) since April 2023, prompting 12 million people to flee their homes, gave a clue as to the value of this remote place.
On August 16,a coalition of Arab and Muslim nations has condemned “in the strongest terms” statements made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding his vision for a “Greater Israel”. When interviewer Sharon Gal with the Israeli i24NEWS channel asked Netanyahu if he subscribed to a “vision” for a “Greater Israel”, Netanyahu said “absolutely”. Asked during the interview aired on Tuesday if he felt connected to the “Greater Israel” vision, Netanyahu said: “Very much.” “These statements represent a grave disregard for, and a blatant and dangerous violation of, the rules of international law and the foundations of stable international relations,” said a joint statement by a coalition of 31 Arab and Islamic countries and the Arab League. The signatories of the statement included the secretaries-general of the League of Arab States, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and the Gulf Cooperation Council.
On August 16, Lisbon is pushing back after Guinea-Bissau abruptly expelled reporting teams from Portugal’s state news agency Lusa and two African units of public broadcaster RTP. The move comes amid rising political tensions in Guinea-Bissau ahead of its delayed presidential and legislative elections, now scheduled for the coming November 23. Portugal’s Foreign Ministry said it has summoned Guinea-Bissau’s ambassador to Lisbon for urgent explanations, with a meeting set for August 16. So far, no official reason has been given by either government. Later on a decree was issued ordering the journalists to leave the country by August 19.
On August 16, an Indonesian military task force has incapacitated eight members of the Free Papua Movement (OPM) in three separate operations ahead of Independence Day celebrations. Major General Kristomei Sianturi, head of the National Armed Forces (TNI) Information Office, said in a press statement that the Habema Task Force carried out the operations to ensure public order and security in Papua as Independence Day nears.
On August 17, a prominent Sudanese human rights group has accused the country’s army and security forces of torturing people to death and operating “execution chambers”. The Emergency Lawyers group said it had documented hundreds of arrests in the capital Khartoum. It said that in the “worst cases”, some captives had later been found dead with evidence of torture.
On August 18, at the port of Piraeus, the Piraeus Port Terminals II and III recorded a 3.1% increase in the first seven months of 2025, while Cosco Shipping Ports recorded a strong performance at the global level, with 66.7 million TEUs. At the same time, however, the Shanghai SCFI index records a continuous decline in spot prices, with the Mediterranean and Europe at the center of the pressures, according to analyst Lars Jensen.
On August 18, US special envoy Tom Barrack has asked Israel to withdraw from the Lebanese territory after Beirut approved a plan to disarm the Hezbollah group by the end of the year, in exchange for an end to Israeli military attacks on its territory. Lebanon’s cabinet approved the plan on August 7, despite Hezbollah’s outright refusal to disarm, raising fears that Israel could intensify attacks on Lebanon, even while it carries out near-daily violations of the November 2024 truce signed with Hezbollah to end its war.
On August 18, the leaders of two militant groups on Nigeria’s most wanted list have been arrested in an operation involving multiple agencies, the West African country’s national security adviser said. The two leaders were allegedly the heads of Ansaru, an al-Qaida-linked group, and Mahmuda, a relatively new and lesser-known militant group. Mahmuda gained national prominence after a string of attacks earlier this year in the country’s north-central region. Nigeria’s northern region is home to numerous armed groups.
On August 18, it was published that Israel announced it will provide emergency humanitarian aid to South Sudan, one of the world’s poorest countries in the midst of renewed violent political instability. The announcement by Foreign Minister Gideon Saar comes after media reports that Israel held talks with the African state to resettle Palestinians from Gaza – a claim South Sudan has firmly rejected.
On August 18, Hamas negotiators in Cairo have received a new proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza, calling for a 60-day truce and hostage release in two batches, a Palestinian official said. “The proposal is a framework agreement to launch negotiations on a permanent ceasefire,” the official told AFP on condition of anonymity, adding that “Hamas will hold internal consultations among its leadership” and with leaders of other Palestinian factions to review the proposal.
On August 19, President Donald Trump said that the United States will help defend Ukraine after its war with Russia but that there will not be U.S. troops on the ground. Trump said during the meetings Monday that the United States would be “involved” in security guarantees for Ukraine after the war but did not elaborate. He added that more clarity will be provided in the morning interview with “Fox & Friends.”
On August 19, Security officials said troops from the elite Danab unit had raided Al Shabab hideouts in the Lower Shabelle region in Somalia, Anadolu reported. The fighting began on Sunday night 17th of August and continued until the early hours of Monday. The attacks also involved airstrikes on the group’s positions. Since July, Somali forces and African Union peacekeepers have intensified operations against Al Shabab strongholds in the centre and south of the country. But their efforts have only achieved limited success as fighters often launch attacks in urban areas including the capital, Mogadishu.
On August 20, gunmen in north-west Nigeria have stormed a mosque, killing Muslim worshippers in what the local government has called a “reprisal attack”. Police in Katsina state said 17 worshippers were shot dead by the assailants – known locally as bandits – but other reports from the region say the death toll is higher. The mosque, located in the village of Unguwan Mantau, was attacked on Tuesday August 19, because local residents had ambushed and killed a number of “bandits” two days earlier, Katsina state official Nasir Muazu said. Banditry is rife in north-western Nigeria where armed gangs target locals, often for financial gain.
On August 20,Israel’s military said it will call up 60,000 reservists ahead of an expanded military operation in Gaza City. Many Palestinian residents have chosen to stay despite the danger, fearing nowhere is safe in a territory facing shortages of food, water and other necessities. Calling up extra military reservists is part a plan Defense Minister Israel Katz approved to begin a new phase of operations in some of Gaza’s most densely populated areas.
On August 20, Israel approved a major settlement project in an area of the occupied West Bank that the international community has warned threatens the viability of a future Palestinian state. Israel has long had ambitions to build on the roughly 12-square-kilometer (five-square-mile) parcel known as E1 just east of Jerusalem, but the plan had been stalled for years amid international opposition.
On August 21, Jihadist group, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) said it killed 21 soldiers and captured two others in a wide-scale attack in Mali on Tuesday August 19, a U.S intelligence NGO reports. JNIM said they had taken control of military barracks and militia positions in Farabougou, Southwestern Mali, according to SITE Intelligence Group, which tracks communications by Islamist militants. The Al Qaeda-affiliated group seized 15 military vehicles and more than 50 weapons during the onslaught. Mali’s army confirmed its outposts in Farabougou and Biriki-Wèrè came under ”simultaneous attacks” early Tuesday but declined to release a casualty toll.
On August 21, according to the Libyan government’s “Hakomitna” platform, the reopening of the Syrian Embassy in Tripoli coincided with a visit by a Syrian foreign ministry delegation led by Mohammad Jafal, deputy director of Arab affairs. Earlier this month, Syria had dispatched a delegation to Tripoli to provide urgent consular services and settle the legal status of its nationals. The delegation operated temporarily from the Tripoli International Fair on Omar al-Mukhtar Street, offering limited services until the embassy resumed its functions.
On August 21, a Ukrainian citizen suspected of participating in the undersea explosions in 2022 in the Baltic Sea damaging the Nord Stream gas pipelines connecting Russia and Germany, has been arrested, a German prosecutor said. The suspect, identified only as Serhii K. in line with German privacy rules, was arrested overnight in Italy’s Rimini province. He added that he is believed to be one of the coordinators of the operation.
On August 22, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said there is no agenda for a potential summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky and that there is no plan for such a meeting. Speaking to NBC’s “Meet the Press with Kristen Welker”, Lavrov said in comments aired on Friday that Putin had made clear he was ready to meet Zelenskyy to discuss a possible deal to end the war in Ukraine, provided there was a proper agenda for such a session, something he said was lacking for now.
On August 22, Israel’s military said it has warned medical officials and international organisations to prepare for the planned evacuation of Gaza City’s one million residents, ahead of an offensive to occupy it. The officials were told that “adjustments” were being made to hospitals in southern Gaza to receive patients. Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry rejected “any step that would undermine what remains of the health system”. The UN and aid groups have also vowed to stay to help those who cannot or choose not to move.
On August 22, the Nigerien army claims to have killed ’Bakoura’, a long-time leader of the Islamist militant group Boko Haram on Shilawa Island in Southeastern Niger on August 15. “An air force fighter aircraft launched three targeted and successive strikes on the positions Bakoura used to occupy in Shilawa,” an army source told AFP. ’Bakoura, whose real name is Ibrahim Mahamadou, has been the leader of Boko Haram since 2021, according to an army announcement on Thursday.
On August 22,the Russian Defence ministry announced that their forces have carried out a military exercise in the Baltic Sea. The drills focused on countering threats from naval drones and underwater saboteurs. This exercise indicates Russia’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its maritime defense capabilities in the region.
On August 23, it was published that Donald Trump has suggested that he will give Vladimir Putin another two-week deadline to agree to peace talks with Volodymyr Zelensky. Speaking to CNN, the US President said he will “know in two weeks what I’m going to do” after Moscow appeared to reject his plea for a meeting between the two leaders.
On August 23, it is stated that Turkey is considering the potential deployment of its military to Ukraine as a factor in providing guarantees against the recurrence of Russian aggression in the event of a peace agreement. Thiswas reported by the Ambassador of Ukraine to Turkey, Nariman Dzhelyal, on the air of the telethon, as reported by UNN.
On August 23, NATO’s easternmost member states are grappling with a sharp rise in radio and satellite interference, with Baltic governments accusing Russia of positioning equipment for electronic warfare close to their borders. Since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Baltic Sea region has registered widespread signal jamming, including of the Global Positioning System (GPS), which has affected air and maritime communications.
On August 24, Israel has completely destroyed more than 1,000 buildings in the Zeitoun and Sabra neighborhoods of Gaza City since it started its invasion of the city on August 6, trapping hundreds under the rubble, the Palestinian Civil Defence said. An agency said that the ongoing shelling and blocked access routes are preventing many rescue and aid operations in the area.
On August 24, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine would continue to fight for its freedom “while its calls for peace are not heard,” in a defiant address to the nation on its Independence Day. “We need a just peace, a peace where our future will be decided only by us,” he said, adding that Ukraine was “not a victim, it is a fighter”. He continued: “Ukraine has not yet won, but it has certainly not lost.”
On August 24, Nigeria’s military has killed 35 jihadists in a series of air strikes near its north-eastern border with Cameroon, it said in a statement. The strikes were carried out in four areas to thwart an attempt by the jihadists to attack ground troops, the military added. Nigeria has been battling jihadist groups for more than a decade, as well as violent criminal gangs, sectarian conflict and widespread kidnappings for ransom.
On August 25, Israel has carried out air strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, in response to the group’s missile attack last Friday August 22, which Israel said carried cluster munitions. The Israeli operation targeted a military complex housing the presidential palace, a fuel depot and power stations. Four people were killed and 67 injured, Houthi officials said.
On August 25, officials in Nigeria said that the air force has rescued 76 kidnap victims, including women and children. They said this follows a precision air strike on a bandit stronghold in Pauwa Hill in the north-west Katsina State. The operation was part of a manhunt for a gang leader known as Babaro, who has been linked to last week’s attack on a mosque in the region. At least one child died during the rescue operation but officials did not say if there were any other casualties among the kidnap victims or the gang members.
On August 25, Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces shelled a hospital in North Darfur’s besieged city of El-Fasher and abducted six women and two children from a displacement camp, rescuers and a medic said. El-Fasher, under RSF siege for over a year, is the last major city in western Darfur still held by the army and a flashpoint in the war that erupted in April 2023 between army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his former deputy and RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.
On August 25,an eerily familiar set of headlines is making the rounds in Ethiopia, troubling many in the fragile, northern Tigray region. This time, it could involve not just the Tigrayan regional authorities, but also Eritrea, and potentially, that country’s own allies. It is not a conflict that the region can withstand, experts fear. “We are now at a point where we are all frightened at another conflict in Tigray, and with Eritrea,” analyst Abel Abate Demissie of the Chatham House think tank in the United Kingdom, told Al Jazeera. “It would be extremely devastating.”
On August 26, strong activity is being observed in the global vehicle shipping market, with Asia and Europe moving in different directions. According to data for the period April-June 2025, Asia is leading the way in exports, particularly via China, and Europe facing uncertainty due to US tariffs. Norway’s Hoegh Auto liners recorded a 47% jump in volumes from Asia, reaching 2 million ceu in the second quarter of the year. In contrast, flows from the Atlantic decreased by 2%, leading to increased “empty” voyages and higher fuel and freight costs.
On August 26, Riot police in Indonesia’s capital, Jakarta, have fired tear gas and used a water cannon to disperse thousands of students protesting against lavish allowances given to members of parliament. The clashes on Monday came after protesters, clad in dark clothing, threw rocks and set off fireworks at riot police, as they attempted to break into Indonesia’s parliament building.
THE GEOPOLITICAL PROFILES & INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
Geo-political / Geo-Strategic profile:In this domain, evidence is now appearing that the US is simultaneously pursuing the new Geo-political vision, but also the maintenance of sea-power. The US goal is to have full control of its pole and partial control of the other poles (2-3) in the future, of which Russia will have both Geo-strategic and Geo-economic power, China only Geo-economic and the South Pole (big South) neither, which will function as a buffer zone for everyone with continuous re-arrangements while being the field of conflicting aspirations. Also, the Northern Route, useful mainly for China’s exports (but not only), is expected to be an alternative to South Africa and the Red Sea route, constituting a new point of friction in the future.
Geopolitical / Geo-economic Profile: There are no significant changes to what has already been reported in the SEAGUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/17, August 13, regarding signs of power rebalancing. In fact, the only pending issue is the additional imposition of tariffs on China which is however directly linked to the conflict in Ukraine. Signs of OPEC+ to support the enhanced demands of the international’s market in petroleum.
International Security / Strategic sector: There are no significant changes in the Strategic Security sector compared to what was described and analyzed in the SEAGUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/17, August 13. There are no changes in International Security issues, although the Armenia-Azerbaijan corridor will concern us later, when the reactions mainly of Russia, Iran, and China, become clear, for different reasons of course.
Global Maritime Security profile: As noted in SEAGUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/17, August 13, traditional threats to shipping are resurfacing, but with a new “asymmetric profile.” The seizure of ships for alleged violations of coastal state laws rather than overt international regulations is a threat that has reemerged after several decades. SEA GUARDIAN believes that it will be a risk after the cessation of conflict during state-building processes, where there will be a great need for transportation but also increased risks. Typically, the processes of state-building and gaining central control of services take a long time, resulting in such threats to have a long duration.
SEA GUARDIAN, collects information from multiple open sources but is also exploiting other entities organized open-sources to feed its process to issue Security Assessments and other products. The collected information is then assessing the threat/risk security levelsusing the inhouse developed SEA GUARDIAN app, a snapshoot chart of which is presented at the end of this assessment . Two of these organized open-sources are the ACLED conflict index chart and the IMB / ICC live-map, snap-shots of which are depicted below:
THREAT ASSESSMENT UPDATE:
Military Operations
Libya – Central Mediterranean
Libya continues to be in instability, with the biggest challenges being the implementation of the automatic payroll by its Central Bank, the withdrawal of old banknotes, the preparation of the annual budget and the unification of the highest judicial functions under a single body. The municipal elections were held smoothly with a high participation throughout Libya. This fact triggered the opening of a discussion concerning a new constitution and the implementation of modern elections for all the highest governmental bodies (government and parliament), for a united Libya.
SEA GUARDIAN, maintains reservations about the normalization in the country, while the open fronts internally and on the borders with Egypt and Sudan, may suddenly widen and especially if there is greater pressure for the movement of populations from Sudan to the Libyan-Sudanese borders.
Threat assessment due to “military actions – terrorism like” is maintained MEDIUM.
Syria
The situation in Syria does not show any particular progress in eliminating the outstanding issues as listed in previous assessments, with the issue of the integration of the Alawites and Druze of Western Syria being the mainones. Turkey appears to be trying to play as big a role as possible in the reconstruction of Syria. On the one hand, it shows a tendency for greater understanding with the Kurds and on the other hand, Turkey accuses the SDF and Israel of hindering the reconstruction of the country, while is increasingly strengthening the role of the SNF within HTS, as well as its image in Idlib. Also, there are reports indicating that Iran is making a comeback in the region, supporting the Alawites.
The security situation in the Syrian ports on the Mediterranean (Latakia, Tartus) remains unchanged and there are no indications that the interim government is taking the control of them.
SEA GUARDIAN believes that the situation is at a standstill and the involvement of others in the Syrian issue is becoming more active as time goes by, while the international community appears to be showing tolerance, having given a specific time horizon for the completion of the reunification of the country. The plan to create a decentralized state administration appears to be the best solution, although the interim government was not present at the various conferences organized in Paris and Jordan in the near past. An end result of a fragmented Syria cannot be excluded as a possibility.
SEA GUARDIAN estimates that the risks as described in the previous assessment remain the same, while the end result in a fragmented Syria does not exclude the creation of a free trade zone in the areas of the ports of Latakia and Tartus, which are anyway beyond the control of the central government.
On the coasts of Syria, the overall risk for incidents is “MEDIUM” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “NSR” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “MEDIUM” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “NSR”.
Lebanon
SEA GUARDIAN, having warned that a key point for further normalization in the region is the issuance of a decree for the disarmament of armed groups in the country (mainly concerning Hezbollah, but also some Palestinian structures), is monitoring the developments as they will play a major role in generating risks in the region. The decree was issued on August 7 and Hezbollah’s reaction, as was natural, linked any disarmament to Israel’s withdrawal and the end of its aggression, generally. The special mediator Tom Barrack, requested Israel to withdraw from the Israel-Lebanese border in order to remove Hezbollah’s objections. The situation at the moment can be described with the phrase “quiet uncertainty.”
SEA GUARDIAN believes that at least in the medium term there will be no progress in implementing Hezbollah’s disarmament, while it is underlined once again that many of its members are members of the official government in Lebanon. In addition, it must always be taken into account that Hezbollah is directly supported by Iran, having not only political relations but also economic ones.
The threat assessment due to “military actions – terrorism like” is “MEDIUM” due to the applying of Hezbollah disarmament creating serious political tensions, so far.
On the coasts of Lebanon, the overall risk of incidents is “MEDIUM” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “NSR” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “LOW” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “NSR”.
Gaza-Israel
The situation concerning the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza is unchanged. SEA GUARDIAN estimates that Israel will intensify its efforts to control as many key points in Gaza as possible, as the Israeli government believes that even the release of the hostages can only be achieved with the complete dissolution of Hamas. Therefore, Israel will intensify the efforts to achieve its objectives before the UN General Assembly in September 2025, where three-quarters of its members announced their intention to recognize an independent Palestinian state.
On the other hand, the plan for a 60-day temporary ceasefire with the mediation of Egypt and the announcement by Qatar being accepted by Hamas, is rejected by Israel for the time being, while it is considered that Hamas is simply trying to delay Israel’s operations to occupy Gaza, trying to avoid a “fait accompli” before the UN General Assembly.
The internal reactions in Israel for the complete occupation of Gaza, the growing reactions of the Arab world as well as the international ones seem to be absorbed by the Government of Israel, but this cannot continue for a long time. SEA GURADIAN estimates that even if peace or a ceasefire is achieved soon, the transition to normality will be quite distant, since even a mutual trust that existed in the past between the Palestinian Authority and Israel, regardless of Hamas, has been erupted forever.
A special permit continues to be required to approach ports in the Gaza Strip or Israel.
The threat assessment due to “military actions – terrorism like” is “HIGH”.
The overall risk of incidents is “HIGH” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “NSR” (No Serious Report) / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “MEDIUM” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “NSR”.
Sudan-Eritrea–Ethiopia
The entire region is plagued by conflicts that are difficult to contain. A complex threat environment has been created by a mixture of impacts on the sense of security due to the civilian casualties, the severe food shortage and the outbreak of epidemics that affect a population of more than 26 million people. Also, neighboring states have been confirmed to be actively involved in the various conflicts, often using mercenaries. Involvement of the UAE by using mercenaries from Colombia is a fact, already been mentioned in the previous assessment.
Although there are no incidents of attacks on commercial vessels near the coasts and inside ports, SEA GUARDIAN believes that the region requires special attention, both near the coasts and inside the ports, while Israel’s intention to send humanitarian aid in combination with a possible settlement of Palestinians in South Sudan may complicate the situation further in the medium-term.
The threat assessment due to “military actions – terrorism” is HIGH.
For the ports’ security at the most and the coasts, the overall risk of incidents is considered “MEDIUM”, analyzed as follows: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “NSR” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” is estimated “LOW”. For “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “NSR”.
Red Sea – Yemen
It appears that the Houthis have recently limited their activities against shipping. However, it is a high threat and with a high level of risk. In addition, although the previous warning to 64 western shipping companies was with specific recipients, the uncertainty that has been created is great, raising the level of threat and risk and causing chain reactions. Countries that provide a vast percentage of maritime personnel to the shipping industry, such as the Philippines, are asking shipping companies not to use the Red Sea route due to the Houthis threats, otherwise they will stop to allow hiring crews from their country.
At the moment, the threat mainly concerns shipping of Western countries and as such must be addressed. For the time being the only state after July 2025 that executes strikes against Yemeni cities dominated by the Houthis having wide infrastructure, is Israel as a reaction to the ballistic missile attacks against Israeli territories.
• The threat assessment due to “military actions – terrorism like” is HIGH.
The overall risk of incidents is “HIGH” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “MEDIUM” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “HIGH” and for “Cyberattacks, but electronic harassment of Nautical aids” is “MEDIUM”.
Northern Persian Gulf / Iran-Israel conflict
The situation between Iran and Israel seems to be in a state of decline, but the reasons for the conflict have not been completely eliminated. In addition, the Armenia-Azerbaijan recent agreement for the creation of a corridor in the Sub-Caucasus region which was signed in Washington with the support of the Trump administration, it is apparent that will trigger reactions from Iran, perhaps harsh ones, mainly because it interrupts the unified space it had with Russia.
On the other hand, there are signs of military high readiness from the Iranian side due to the ongoing exercises in the seas of the Arabic Gulf and West Indian Ocean. This fact in conjunction with the refusal to start negotiations over its nuclear power program, raises signs that Iran is prepared for a next step of aggression either with US or Israel. Also, the ongoing efforts from the side of some EU nations to re-establish communication channels even if they followed the US on the issue of sanctions, doesn’t show signs of real de-escalation. At the least there is no significant signs of escalation for the close-future.
SEA GUARDIAN advises Shipping Industry to take advantage of the recession in tensions but to prepare for a sudden escalation and has always to be ready to increase security measures by using security teams on ships both during their voyage in the Persian Gulf and in high-risk ports.
The “triggers” that could create escalation are: Cyber-attack on critical infrastructure against or by Iran, Security incident directly targeting the International Zone in Baghdad or involving US diplomatic or military personnel and Iran-linked groups, Security incident involving the Houthis and civilian or military vessels/target in the Red Sea or the Gulf of Aden and stalemate in the UN-brokered peace talks on Yemen. Finally the ongoing Israeli urban warfare to take over the whole Gaza city and the violent deportation of Palestinians.
Threat assessment due to “military actions – terrorism like” against merchant vessels is “MEDIUM”.
The threat overall risk of incidents is “MEDIUM” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “NSR” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “NSR” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “LOW”.
Russia – Ukraine / Black Sea NW part
Due to the uncertainties sourced over the “pause of conflict”, “ceasefire” or “peace agreement” between Russia-Ukraine which are not yet visible in addition to undefined new possible fronts that are coming up, “uncertainty remains high.
Triggers which would escalate or de-escalate the “threat level” are: the kind of agreement to be achieved between Russia – Ukraine (ceasefire, or peace agreement, or peace with guarantees), the internal involvement of illegal and individual groups into the war seeking the next day to dominate Ukraine, the enhancement of aggressivity and the resort to terrorist-type actions, the extension of US support to the Russian-Ukraine peace-making effort and finally the rhythm of EU-NATO support continuation.
The threat assessment due to “military actions – terrorism like” is HIGH.
Indicators which altering the “risks levels” are the proof of military/paramilitary actions against shipping by military/paramilitary groups, conflict over the control of coasts and ports, the escalation of the use of underwater means on attack incidents, the enforcement of US and EU sanctions over Russia oil exports, the reaction of international market of oil provision deficiencies and the spectrum of anti-terrorism/piracy/hijacking reaction by using Maritime Security capabilities.
The overall risk of incidents is “HIGH” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “NSR” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, underwater strikes, crews’ life loses” as “MEDIUM” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “MEDIUM”.
Terrorism – piracy and also cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways
• The triggers that signal the increase or decrease of the threat remain the same, as mentioned in the previous assessment.
Also, the connection between military/paramilitary actions, terrorism with the risks of piracy, financial losses, personnel losses and actions with the ultimate aim of affecting the Shipping of specific countries transporting Russian oil.
In the next paragraph (at the end of the risk assessment by region) the threats of piracy/theft are categorized in relation to their characteristics in the various regions.
RISK ASSESSMENT
Gulf of Guinea
The causes of risks generated in the Gulf of Guinea region are the internal conflicts, as has been reported in previous assessments. SEA GUARDIAN estimates that the conflicts are difficult to mitigate since the political environment in the GoG states is constantly in a harsh confrontation, dragging citizens into atrocities. Crime has deep roots both in terms of time and organization, the conflicts are reinforced by the supply of weapons from abroad and the government formations are unstable, while it is not uncommon for attacks to be linked to places of worship, mainly Muslim.
There are also occasional diplomatic standoffs with states outside Africa, such as last month with France over control of its nuclear facilities in Nigeria. In states where currently does not seem to be any tensions due to an acute political climate, there is an intense climate of organized crime, which can manifest itself against Shipping at any time, such as the Togo pirates, who are of the most aggressive in the GoG. On the other hand, Maritime Security services in the region are well organized and in most cases their use is necessarily recommended.
The overall risk of incidents is “HIGH”, which is analyzed in: “Borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “HIGH” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “HIGH” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “NSR”.
The announcements about the new oil “wells” that will be included in the extraction network, in fact, create international expectations, but the problem of security in Libyan ports remains as described in previous assessments. The absence of attacks smooths the dangerousness of the situation while the sources of risk remain and stem from the absence of central control of the ports which are controlled locally with different rules under the auspices of the dominators in Eastern and Western Libya.
The strengthening of Libyan relations with USA for commercial transactions and projects within the country, does not seem to have a practical implementation at the moment. SEA GUARDIAN advises Shipping Industry to keep this perspective in mind, as the possible activation of commercial transactions and projects will mean that the security assessment by the USA for the country will be positive. It should not be underestimated that the official Maritime Security services (US Coast Guard) have still maintained Libyan ports at ISPS Level 2 for a very long time.
The overall risk of incidents is “MEDIUM” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “NSR” (No Serious Report) / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “MEDIUM” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “MEDIUM”, at the most due to the appearance of high GPS interference in the west coasts of gulf of Sirte.
East Mediterranean Sea
The risks stem from the development of conflicts as analyzed in the threats section of this report and in the corresponding threat and risk areas of this risk assessment section, reflecting that stance of the East Med countries.
Therefore, SEA GUARDIAN estimates that the risk environment has not changed, while advising Shipping to be very cautious when approaching ports in the region for different reasons, on a case-by-case basis. The Eastern Mediterranean will be in a state of uncertainty regarding security issues for some time to come even if a ceasefire or peace agreements between Israel-Hamas would be achieved in short-time.
The overall risk of incidents is “MEDIUM” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “VERY LOW” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “HIGH” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “NSR”.
The threat from military/paramilitary actions on the East coasts of Mediterranean is “MEDIUM” due to the conflicts in Gaza strip, Syria and Lebanon uncertainties related to the disarming of Hezbollah.
Suez Canal – Northern Red Sea
Traffic in the Suez Canal continues to fluctuate greatly and there are no signs of stabilization in its reuse. The Suez Canal Authority (SCA) in cooperation with other Egyptian state entities and even with the participation of the Prime Minister of Egypt, is seeking collaborations and memoranda with countries in Southeast Asia, for the revival of economic activities in Egypt with a focus on Suez Canal and Port Said.
Nevertheless, SEA GUARDIAN believes that if there is no other event that negatively affects Shipping, the fluctuations become smaller and traffic in the Red Sea will recover, mainly due to price pressure from international markets. In addition, the supply/demand factor should not be underestimated as the increase in oil production by OPEC+ combined with the intensification of sanctions on Russia, necessitates the need for more routes. Suez will never cease to be an international shortcut for travel to many destinations.
Due to the uncertainty on the coasts of East Mediterranean, in the Suez Canal and in the Northern Red Sea,the overall risk of incidents is “LOW” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “VERY LOW” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “LOW” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “NSR”.
Bab-el-Mandeb Straits – Southern Rea Sea
Traffic in the straits is constantly monitored and statistics are compiled. The main threat remains the Houthis, while there are no incidents exclusively related to piracy. However, incidents of capture, which accompany other types of attacks, do exist and in general, sailing from the straits to the Suez approaches has high risks. The only thing that changes is the type of threat depending on which specific area we are focusing in, as has been analyzed in previous individual paragraphs.
It is apparent that the threat of GNSS harassment is returning again to the area with intensity.
SEA GUARDIAN advises dealing with the threat as a whole that has subsets, the type of threat and the risks that stem from the particular security conditions which of course, several of them are confrontable. Additionally, it is advised shipping to take into consideration that there are signs from the enhancement in specific ports arrival of TEUs (such as Piraeus) in relation with the rising of traffic. Considering the fact that Western shipping companies avoid the Bab-el-Mandeb straits, shows that this shipping track-route is tending to be exploited by far East shipping companies not facing an actual threat by Houthis, achieving lower transportation-fees rates.
The threat from military/paramilitary actions due to the Yemen’s Houthis is “MEDIUM”.
Due to the unstable situation in the Middle East and the Northern Red Sea (Sudan-Eritrean-Ethiopia) as well as the Houthi’s aggressive behavior,the overall risk of incidents is “MEDIUM” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “MEDIUM” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “LOW” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “MEDIUM”.
Gulf of Aden – Somalia
The threat from military/paramilitary actions in the Gulf of Aden is “MEDIUM” due to no-direct relation with the conflict in the area.
The Gulf of Aden region is included in the attack areas contained in the Houthi warning letter to 64 Shipping companies. Although the probability of attacks in this particular area due to the low frequency of incidents is low, it cannot be ignored in shaping the level of risks generated by the region.
SEA GUARDIAN advises Shipping to take this threat seriously, whether a company is on the list or not, and to deal with the situation in a planned and organized manner, drafting a properly designed contingency plan.
The overall risk of incidents is “MEDIUM” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “LOW” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “MEDIUM” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “NSR”. The previous months’ absence of attacks proposes the corresponding domain as LOW while the capturing of all ship’s attacked, highlights the risk of hijacking e.t.c as MEDIUM.
Arabian Sea – Gulf of Oman
The Arabian Sea/Gulf of Aden region is included in the attack areas contained in the Houthi warning letter to 64 shipping companies. Although the probability of attacks in this specific situation due to the low frequency of incidents is low, it cannot be ignored in shaping the level of risks generated by the region.
SEA GUARDIAN advices that even if the Red Sea is not used for passages to West, the use of the Arabian Sea is inevitable, when the voyages are connected to the Persian Gulf. The threat may not be as serious in essence as in the Red Sea, West of Yemen, but it remains significant, since even theoretically the Houthis have the ability to carryout long range strikes.
In the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, the overall risk of incidents is “LOW” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “VERY LOW” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “VERY LOW” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “MEDIUM” due a possible unexpected and sudden re-escalation even if the number of attacking proposes the opposite.
Hormuz Straits – Persian Gulf
The Strait of Hormuz continues to present normality in its movement, but the GNSS interference described by this article continues to exist at a high intensity. At this moment and given that Iran does not show any aggression, is focusing on the reconstruction and security of the destroyed infrastructure. Taking also into account Iran’s isolation from international control, there is no evidence to justify any increase of the threat.
SEA GUARDIAN estimates that in the medium term, there will be no problems for the maritime community. The conditions will allow Shipping to serve the oil increase in production by OPEC+, but the inherent uncertainty from a sudden event suggests the existence of security teams.
In the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, the overall risk of incidents is “MEDIUM” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “LOW” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “MEDIUM” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “HIGH” due to the conjunction with the attempt of small boats with armed crew to board ships, pretending official services claiming inspection rights, promoting the use of any help against traditional threats, except from the threat of war.
Malacca Straits
The Independence Day celebration of Indonesia went smoothly without any incident that could create conflict. Indonesian armed forces, as is the case from time to time, are operating against organized crime, but in reality the dispersion of the sources of crime is quite vast and difficult to completely tame.
SEA GUARDIAN estimates that at this time, readiness and vigilance should be maintained for the possibility of an increase in crime, as it is not clear yet if the last month release of prisoners by the government will affect this threat.
The overall risk of incidents is “HIGH” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “VERY HIGH” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “MEDIUM” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “NSR”.
Black Sea / East Part
New risks could be raised due to the agreement over the corridor between Armenia-Azerbaijan. The ensued threats and risks have been set as matter of being assessed by SEA GUARDIAN, the results of which would be given in the September’s Security assessment.
Indicators which altering the “risks levels” are, the way of Armenia-Azerbaijan corridor agreement implementation, the reactions of Iran-Russia discontinuation, the extension of US presence in the area, China’s reaction to support its already investments on this corridor and the covered actions of Turkey whom the commercial path is harmed due to this corridor.
The overall risk of incidents is “MEDIUM” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “NSR” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “MEDIUM” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “LOW”.
Baltic Sea / NE part
Cyber-attacks are not a new threat, but their extension seems to be widened, adding a new dimension by affecting the networking systems. It is estimated that a wise approach is needed not only due to the threat itself but also due to the cyber-capabilities expansion and the widening Internet of Services (IoS), substituting the previous Internet of Tools (IoT).
• The re-emergence of cyber-attacks, in conjunction with electronic harassment creates a threat environment in which it is often difficult to find its source.
• SEA GUARDIAN, estimates that Russia is the source of this phenomenon which could produce very high navigational safety peril.
The threat of mines is something which creates “uncertainties” while it is possible underwater detonation devices to be uncontrollable travelling to the NE part of Baltic Sea. An undefined attack against shipping has been happened in this area which is a strike included to a batch of 2025 incidents.
Triggers which would escalate or de-escalate the “threat levels” are: the spectrum of Russia reaction against the underwater threat, the expansion of its defense activities to protect all the line of underwater pipelines, the involvement in political/international issues of the former USSR states, the expansion of its Naval domination to all the Baltic Sea NE part (electronic interception and harassment is included).
• The threat assessment due to “military actions – terrorism like” is LOW.
• Indicators which altering the “risks levels” are, the proof of military/paramilitary actions against shipping by military/paramilitary groups involvement, conflict over the control of coasts and ports and the escalation of underwater means of attack.
• The overall risk of incidents is “MEDIUM” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “NSR” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “MEDIUM” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “HIGH”.
Baltic Sea / West part
Cyber-attacks are not a new threat but their extension seems to be widened, adding a new dimension by affecting the networking systems. It is estimated that a wise approach is needed not only due to the threat itself but also due to the cyber-capabilities expansion and the widening Internet of Services (IoS), substituting the previous Internet of Tools (IoT).
The re-emergence of cyber-attacks, in conjunction with electronic harassment creates a threat environment in which it is often difficult to find its source.
SEA GUARDIAN, advices shipping companies to take measures similar to the measures taken in Persian Gulf and Red Sea, either if Russia is the source of this dense phenomenon as several public media supports, or not.
In this part of the Baltic Sea the underwater “Nord Stream” pipelines sabotage executed in September 2022, is the hottest judicial issue for the Germany this period. SEA GUARDIAN having had monitored the issue decided to include it in its Security assessment, believing that these kinds of attacks could be repeated in case of the Russia-Ukraine war will continue.
Indicators which altering the “risks levels” are, the results of the “Nord Stream” pipelines sabotage investigation, addresses the involvement of a Ukrainian service or individuals from Ukraine. Potential underwater attacks against infrastructure or vessels, cannot be excluded.
• The overall risk of incidents is “MEDIUM” which is analyzed in: “borderline of terrorism, attempts for piracy, robbery” as “NSR” / for “Hijacking, opening fire, crews’ life loses” as “LOW” and for “Cyberattacks, electronic harassment of Nautical aids” as “HIGH”.
SEA GUARDIAN, having standardized the threats and risks by region and by type and giving the levels of threats/risks that are generated each time, in this assessment also lists the categories of threats according to the nature they appear when they manifest themselves as follows:
– Risks arising from side effects of military actions, such as collateral losses during intense exchange of missile attacks in the war between Israel and the Houthis, Hamas and Iran, Syria, Libya etc. (as happened in some cases to vessels docked in Israeli ports).
– Risks from unprovoked military-type actions against Shipping, accompanied or not by other actions. These are usually well-organized, either aiming at destruction (as in the attacks of July 6 and 7) or aiming at capture (as on July 24). These actions also include attacks of an international nature without a clear source of action, such as last month off Libya, bordering on terrorism.
– Piracy/theft itself, in an organized manner that results in capturing and hostage-taking, as in the Gulf of Guinea.
– Opportunistic piracy/theft, as in the Straits of Singapore.
– And the methodical piracy/theft of entire vessels that is exclusively aimed at ransom, from which there are usually no losses or injuries to crew members, but they cost the Shipping Industry dearly. The latter involves operations with international experience.
Finally, the fact that the use of technology in carrying out such actions, especially not opportunistic ones but well planned and organized, is increasing. This factor should not be underestimated as technology can be used in such a way to cover up the pre-planned intention to commit piracy.
OVERALL ASSESSMENT – CONSULTING
As has been reported and analyzed in SEA GUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/17, August 13, the situation remains uncertain regarding the implications of the various conflicts, the threats against shipping by specific groups, while it is unclear the environment of threats and risks that will arise, even if all conflicts stop. It is apparent that the US, will remain steadfast in the announcements of Trump administration. US will seek to create controlled areas in various parts of the planet with the aim of imposing zones of influence, in a newly emerging Geo-political, multipolar system.
SEA GUARDIAN, in preparing the assessments as well as in calculating the levels of threat and risk, approaches the various “hot spots” from a generic geo-political perspective. The nature of the threat sources and the type of threats in terms of their manifestation, are examined from a western world security company point of view. Therefore, it advises Shipping Industry to approach the threat environment in a similar way as it is not possible to separate aggression / rivalry against states by specific groups, from aggression / rivalry against their shipping.
After a significant increase of 33,3% of maritime traffic through the Red Sea the week 04-10 of August, as reported in the 25/17 Security Assessment, the following weeks are highlighted by a significant decrease (depicted in JMIC reports).
Taking into consideration the global Geo-political/economic issues, the implemented economic sanctions and the reactions of international markets in changes, SEA GUARDIAN believes that there is no clear sign, either if this significant decrease of maritime traffic is ensued either by the Houthis announcement or the tariffs performed, or the both. At the same time the Cape of Good Hope presents also a significant decrease on traffic. SEA GUARDIAN advice, once again, western shipping communities not to abandon their shipping lanes through the Red Sea, as the conditions the previous two years were more dangerous.
Recently, there has been intension by the SCA to attract cooperation with Far Eastern states, in an effort to increase maritime flow through the Suez, while it is not clear whether the increase that appears from time-to-time concerns western Shipping Companies or those from the Far East. Other data, derived from port arrivals, currently provide indications that any flow in Suez is being affected by the use of other Shipping Companies instead of western ones. SEA GUARDIAN estimates that this approach will gradually create unfair competition in freight rates, while it does not appear that the Western world has organized any reaction either in the field, with the support of warships and security teams on ships, or at the high management level. Therefore, it is considered that Shipping should defend and restore its Shipping lines through the Red Sea, as the risk of losing a part of its international market, exists.
SEA GUARDIAN believes that the conflict in Israel will end more quickly than the internal turmoil in Libya and Syria. However as there is always an end, the final results will create or re-establish new threats and risks in the light of terrorism, international crime and retaliation. According to this assessment, security measures must be upgraded, using not only security teams on board and in ports, where required and permitted, but also using other security services, such as reef checks, anti-drone, underwater ROVs etc., technologies also available in the private sector of Maritime Security companies.
The GoG and Malacca Straits regions show increasing trends in piracy/theft incidents. Even if in the past the nature of pirate actions was organized, while today is more sporadic, both have as a common element the ferocity when their occur, having as results, loss of personnel due to injuries, hostage-taking and even deaths during the piracy/theft or after it, especially in the GoG.
It is clear that threats arising from electronic harassment (GNSS interference) or Cyberspace, should now be of constant concern to Shipping, not only because of the impacts on the field, but also because of the impacts on the developing networks, network-centric control (IoS), towards which the technological evolution of Shipping Management is directed. There must be a permanent capacity of performing traditional Shipping, mainly in the regions of the Arabic Peninsula and the capability of alternate Command and Control networks.
Finally, as SEA GUARDIAN does not limit its assessment only to the constantly examined areas. It places from time-to-time new areas under close monitoring/assessment, guided by the observed changes in areas which, based on data, constitute medium and long-term sources of threats and risks. SEA GUARDIAN aim is to provide constructive service for timely planning and the availability of security measures for shipping companies to cope with the “threats” and mitigate the “risks”.
Usefull links for military actions and picture of piracy attacks in:ACLED and IMB/ICC.
Usefull documents and manuals for GNSS interference:
Strategic-Operational Threat/Risk Assessment Levels for areas / domains under permanent monitoring
SEA GUARDIAN evaluates and reviews periodically (24/7) or intermediately after a serious incident / significant change of triggers and indicators the Strategic/Operational Threat and Risk Levels in conjunction with a systematic and Strategic/Operational intel & info collection. The following snapshot chart represents the outcome of its app which provide a near-real time picture could be provided as external service after a request.
Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd / Intel Department (www.sguardian.com / +30 6944373465)cansupport your operational planning, assist in determining the risk assessment and provide assistance in decision making by producingtailor-made assessments upon requeston ports in the region, on routes, on cargos and specific merchant vessels. You can refer to our previous Threat & Risk assessment analysis briefs for more information and background analysis on the events and situation in the region. +++
Viewers can read here SEA GUARDIANS previous report and connect same with the above:
